Finland, Sweden + NATO

[Barrister]

I don't know if there's anything to it - but I keep thinking that May 9/Victory Day must be a key date for Putin right now.

Although I wonder if Russia might stay relatively quiet for the next few weeks to keep re-grouping but also, possibly, boost Le Pen's chances?

I read somewhere speculation (how informed I can't say) is Putin wants a WWII-style victory parade in Mariupol on May 9.

Not so sure how much Putin is going to change strategy to help Le Pen, however.  Obviously he'd prefer her to Macron, but his overwhelming objective right now is some kind of victory in Ukraine.

But what do I know.

[crazy canuck]

How will there entry into the alliance change the internal dynamics of the alliance, if at all?  Does it go back to its roots as a European defence pact and no longer go off on other adventures.  Would it have done so regardless given the Russian menace we now face.

I guess I am wondering if it is all the upside it seems to be or what the possible downside might be.

[Berkut]

If the war keeps up like this, we might start seeing countries leaving NATO.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

If the war keeps up like this, we might start seeing countries leaving NATO.

But only if they're not bordering the russians probably, cause you know...

[Josquius]

I'm just hoping in response to the Russian threats a Finnish or Swedish politician pipes up "Dude. That's why we want to join NATO."

[Solmyr]

I'm just hoping in response to the Russian threats a Finnish or Swedish politician pipes up "Dude. That's why we want to join NATO."

Multiple Finnish politicians have said things to that effect.

So far, in response to talks of Finnish NATO membership, we've had cyberattacks taking down the websites of Foreign Affairs and Defense Ministries (on the same day when Zelensky spoke to our parliament), reports of Russian personnel shifts on the border, and a Russian fighter crashing close to the Finnish border.

[Josquius]

I'm just hoping in response to the Russian threats a Finnish or Swedish politician pipes up "Dude. That's why we want to join NATO."

Multiple Finnish politicians have said things to that effect.

So far, in response to talks of Finnish NATO membership, we've had cyberattacks taking down the websites of Foreign Affairs and Defense Ministries (on the same day when Zelensky spoke to our parliament), reports of Russian personnel shifts on the border, and a Russian fighter crashing close to the Finnish border.

Sounds like Finland could really help Ukraine by drawing a bunch of Russia troops up there.

Any of these comments amusing?

[Threviel]

Some background on Swedish 200 year strategy.

Back in 1808-9 the Russians invaded and we lost our eastern half, Finland. This led to a lot of constitutional stuff where the king was ousted and replaced with his childless uncle. The Napoleonic wars were raging and confidence was at the bottom with the realisation that Sweden would never ever be able to defeat Russia and reclaim Finland.

So the kind adopted Jean-Baptiste Bernadotte as his heir and the marshal immediately took control of the country, leading it in the later parts of the Napoleonic wars and coming out with Norway as a vassal more or less.

But the realisation was still that Sweden was a minor player and that we would do best to stay away from any great power conflicts. Swedish non-alignment was born.

Based on a strong army and navy we walked the tightrope during the 19th century and we stayed out of WWI. After that, when there was eternal peace, we more or less disbanded the army and when mobilization started up again we became ready for WWII in '48.

But when the war was over Sweden were the great power in northern Europe. The Russian and German navy was no more, so the Swedish navy ruled the Baltic sea and the Swedish air force was the 4th strongest in the world.

The cold war was more or less a continuous relative decline versus the Soviet union, by the 60's the Swedish navy was passed by the Soviets and by the late 80's we only had corvettes and subs, distinctly inferior in numbers. The air force was formidable until the end and the army was respectable and large.

All in all the Soviets were not strong enough to take Sweden and at the same time keep up their numbers elsewhere. And that's what Swedish non-alignment was based on, we had an iron fist under the velvet glove. We spent some 4-5% of GNP on defense.

So we had prime minister Olof Palme calling the US bloody murderers over Vietnam and having a very anti-US rhetoric and at the same time co-operating under the table with western military powers and espionage. Sweden was more less seen as the anchor of Nato i the north, when the war came we were supposed to take care of the Russians in northern Europe, and we would have been able to do it.

Then the cold war ended and all was disbanded again, now we have 20 years of re-building to do. But a lot of Swedish society do still have non-alignment ingrained into it, it's how we were raised and it's seen as a generally successful policy for over 200 years. The social democrats in particular ave very split on this, but polling suggests that only about 45% of the Swedes are for joining Nato even now, even if there's a 70% majority in the parliament. A lot of commentators are still stuck in the 80's mindset without understanding that it was our huge defense forces that made it possible, they seem to believe that the soviets respected our diplomacy.

For the Finns it was different, they were Finlandized and couldn't join Nato, otherwise they would have been as close to founding members as possible I think. Even in Russia's darkest time around the millenium they never disbanded their army, they knew who their neighbour was. They also knew that there wasn't any rush to join Nato, since Russia was weak they could keep their freedom of actions based on the assumption that Russia was a rational actor. Now that Russia proved itself to not be a rational actor it's high time to join Nato.

[Solmyr]

Even Finnish left-wing parties, traditionally skeptical of NATO, are moving towards support. Our PM Sanna Marin (social-democrat) has not voiced support officially, but is driving the movement towards membership application. And yesterday the first MP of the Left Alliance (which has been traditionally very anti-NATO) has said that he supports membership. He is Somali and said that he does not want to experience war again like he did as a child. Various other members of his party have also indicated a shift in their views to be more in favour of joining.

It's a bit of a running joke here that Finland is finally being led into NATO by a left-wing female-majority government.

[The Larch]

Apparently Russia's short term answer to this development is going to be deploying nukes to the Baltic.

[The Brain]

Apparently Russia's short term answer to this development is going to be deploying nukes to the Baltic.

Oh no!

Anyway...

[Berkut]

I'm just hoping in response to the Russian threats a Finnish or Swedish politician pipes up "Dude. That's why we want to join NATO."

Multiple Finnish politicians have said things to that effect.

So far, in response to talks of Finnish NATO membership, we've had cyberattacks taking down the websites of Foreign Affairs and Defense Ministries (on the same day when Zelensky spoke to our parliament), reports of Russian personnel shifts on the border, and a Russian fighter crashing close to the Finnish border.

Like I said, the more this goes on, the less compelling the need to join NATO might seem to be....

[Legbiter]

Sweden and Finland in NATO would severely hamper the Russians in the Baltic and make any Russian blyatkrieg into the Baltic states very, very hard. 

[FunkMonk]

Gaijin de SinkingMoscau is typing up strongly worded posts about how these are simply expected developments from anti-Russian elites in these countries, and that their true populations are actually very pro-Russian invasion of their countries.

[Admiral Yi]

Solmyr, IIRC you're a Finn of Russian descent.  Can you tell us a little more about that?  Like how and why your family ended up in Finland?