The EU thread

[Tonitrus]

I would think a civil war would require some pretty motivated sections/factions among the population.  The only segment of the population that I see would likely be highly motivated are those that are even more extreme than Putin and the current government.  Given that most of them are probably already in/adjacent to the security apparatuses, I tend to think that a "civil war" would limited to those echelons of power for control of said apparatuses.

How messy that would turn out to be would depend on how overlapped they are with the military, or with each other, but my impression is that there are plenty of separate Russian security organizations around for things to get slightly messy.

I wonder if Putin has a posthumous "succession plan" (which could be easily ignored, of course), or if he is ok with everything rolling into chaos when he croaks.

[Zoupa]

Yeah one remarkable thing for me during the Ukrainian Kursk incursion was the seeming complete passivity of the local Russian population. The Ukrainian civilians tried to resist initially before being discouraged by the Russians but I didn't see any such reports from the Russian peasants.

russians have this weird national conception, or lack thereof. Borders don't really mean anything for the rusky mir. If somehow in a peace deal Ukraine got Kursk and Belgorod, there'd be very little reaction from the population in the rest of russia. There'd be no civil resistance in the new Ukrainian regions. The population is incredibly depoliticized, by design.

[Tamas]

I would think a civil war would require some pretty motivated sections/factions among the population.  The only segment of the population that I see would likely be highly motivated are those that are even more extreme than Putin and the current government.  Given that most of them are probably already in/adjacent to the security apparatuses, I tend to think that a "civil war" would limited to those echelons of power for control of said apparatuses.

How messy that would turn out to be would depend on how overlapped they are with the military, or with each other, but my impression is that there are plenty of separate Russian security organizations around for things to get slightly messy.

I wonder if Putin has a posthumous "succession plan" (which could be easily ignored, of course), or if he is ok with everything rolling into chaos when he croaks.

A convincing argument I have heard from analysts is that de ody like Putin would not name an heir because a clear heir is also a potential rival, and also a clear succession means it is safer for the elites to get rid of him.

[Zoupa]

Also I don't think our job is to worry about what happens inside russian borders once they lose or Putin dies or whatever. Our job is to make sure Ukraine wins. What happens inside russia is for russians to figure out. It's not like we did anything when Prigozin was 100 miles from Moscow.

[Jacob]

Also I don't think our job is to worry about what happens inside russian borders once they lose or Putin dies or whatever. Our job is to make sure Ukraine wins. What happens inside russia is for russians to figure out. It's not like we did anything when Prigozin was 100 miles from Moscow.

I generally agree. That said, I reckon there are two motivations for meddling in a post-Putin Russian collapse:

• Let's try to minimize the risk of nukes ending up going bad places.
• There's a way for my particular clique to make a bunch of money.

I expect the appetite for "let us try to help make a better Russia for Russians via democracy and economic growth" to be fairly low.