The EU thread

[Valmy]

Noted by Luka Ivan Jukic on Twitter - Croatia's now been promoted from a Balkan country

Just goes to show they always belonged in a union with Austria, none of this Serbia or Hungary shit.

[Duque de Bragança]

Noted by Luka Ivan Jukic on Twitter - Croatia's now been promoted from a Balkan country

Just goes to show they always belonged in a union with Austria, none of this Serbia or Hungary shit.

They were part of Austria as land of the crown of Saint-Stephen, with a limited autonomy from, guess whom, Hungary. 
You may be mixing up with Slovenia.

[Valmy]

Noted by Luka Ivan Jukic on Twitter - Croatia's now been promoted from a Balkan country

Just goes to show they always belonged in a union with Austria, none of this Serbia or Hungary shit.

They were part of Austria as land of the crown of Saint-Stephen, with a limited autonomy from, guess whom, Hungary. 
You may be mixing up with Slovenia.

What? I am well aware they were part of the Kingdom of Hungary, the fact that they were part of Hungary was what I was referring to. Why do you think I mentioned Serbia AND Hungary if I was not aware of that? But they were often played off against the Hungarians by the Austrians.

[Duque de Bragança]

Noted by Luka Ivan Jukic on Twitter - Croatia's now been promoted from a Balkan country

Just goes to show they always belonged in a union with Austria, none of this Serbia or Hungary shit.

They were part of Austria as land of the crown of Saint-Stephen, with a limited autonomy from, guess whom, Hungary. 
You may be mixing up with Slovenia.

What? I am well aware they were part of the Kingdom of Hungary, the fact that they were part of Hungary was what I was referring to. Why do you think I mentioned Serbia AND Hungary if I was not aware of that? But they were often played off against the Hungarians by the Austrians.

It was not too clear. You almost made it sound Hungary was part of the Balkans. 
But then Habsburg Austria also included Serbia for a short time (had they successfully defended it from the Ottomans things might have been different).
Maybe let Hungary have another go at Serbia, not just Voivodina + Belgrade. 

[Tamas]

It was not too clear. You almost made it sound Hungary was part of the Balkans. 
But then Habsburg Austria also included Serbia for a short time (had they successfully defended it from the Ottomans things might have been different).
Maybe let Hungary have another go at Serbia, not just Voivodina + Belgrade. 

It was Hungary which controlled (parts) of Serbia and for a while they DID defend it from the Turks. 1456, remember! In Hungary we were told since that successful siege defense the whole world is ringing church bells at noon every day, because of the Papal order at the time to do so (whereas, I am fairly sure, its only us who have been doing that for the past 500 years )

[Duque de Bragança]

It was Hungary which controlled (parts) of Serbia and for a while they DID defend it from the Turks. 1456, remember! In Hungary we were told since that successful siege defense the whole world is ringing church bells at noon every day, because of the Papal order at the time to do so (whereas, I am fairly sure, its only us who have been doing that for the past 500 years )

That's why I mentioned it. 
As for Serbia, the Despotate remnant ended in 1459, so a very brief high point for Hungary (not Serbia), but fueled by helping Vlad the Impaler taking over in Wallachia in 1456 — before betraying him in 1462 —, Skanderberg in Albania and Stephen the Great in Moldavia (the latter being somewhat troublesome for Hungary as you know  ).

[Zoupa]

I think Germany should take some responsibility before asking for solidarity.

Or does that only apply pre-2008? Or perhaps only applies to southern Europeans?

Sooner or later, the bill comes due.

[Zanza]

What should we take responsibility for with what concrete measures?

What bill comes due?

[Sheilbh]

On gas the National Grid here is seeking authorisation on an emergency basis to increase the pressure in the gas connector to the Netherlands which could increase exports from the UK by a third - which would allow the UK to act a little bit more as a land bridge (we have re-gasification capacity but are at the max of what can be exported to Europe through the pipelines). Also the Rough gas storage has been reopened which sounds like a sensible idea and again probably means we can store and get more to the rest of Europe ahead of winter.

[Zoupa]

What should we take responsibility for with what concrete measures?

What bill comes due?

For being so completely besotted with cheap gas from a mass murderer?

For spending next to nothing on your military?

You're gonna be hard pressed to find accommodating European partners. No one feels sorry for Germany.

[Zanza]

Ok, so nothing in particular. 

[Admiral Yi]

For being so completely besotted with cheap gas from a mass murderer?

For spending next to nothing on your military?

You're gonna be hard pressed to find accommodating European partners. No one feels sorry for Germany.

There are two countries in the EU/Nato that can point a finger at Germany about military spending.

And I don't see a bunch of countries that had a smarter energy policy.

I thought you were going to bring up the PIIGS bailouts, and was ready to argue with you on that.

[Sheilbh]

I think that's fair to an extent and the complication/outer limit is Merkel. Germany's strategy for the world for thirty years boiled down to relying on Russia for energy, relying on China for trade/growth and relying on America for security. You do not need to be Cassandra to see that very little needs to go wrong in the world for that model to be at risk - as it is I think it's going wrong on all fronts.

But as you say most countries built their strategies on a similar sort of basis/approach. I think Germany is probably having to go further than others because it was more  ideologically and emotionally invested in that long 90s/"end of history" worldview (and of course it was - that was the period of reunification and a great national project of making reunification work). I think it's why Merkel was celebrated by media like the NYT or Guardian for so long - though I imagine she thought it was ridiculous - as the "leader of the free world". She, and Germany, represented the before-times for the traumatised.

But my view and why I'm more critical of Merkel-era Germany (and I think Germany is and must transform from this - again I think the current government is doing a pretty good job all things considered) is that I think it was cynicism not naivety/belief. My read is that her world view is not naive about Putin or Xi but is a combination of deterministic about the decline of west and pessimistic about the west's ability to shape or stop the chaos of world events by actors such as Putin. I always think about her comments about The Sleepwalkers. The consequence is I think she fit in the model of Germany's strategy since at least Schroeder but from a different starting point - not so much "change through trade", as get yours and protect it. I never know how much to give him credence but I'd note Portugal's former Europe Minister Bruno Macaes has explicitly accused Merkel's government of helping block and organising opposition to pipelines and inter connectors with Iberia because "Russian gas comes first" - which is why it's the least affected bit of Europe but also why they can't do much to help despite re-gasification capacity.

And of course there's going to be resentment and reluctance on the part of countries who had to endure lectures and morality tales from Schaeuble.

[Zanza]

What gives you the impression that Germany had any particular strategy regarding China, Russia, the US or even the EU? A strategy to me is something you actively pursue, whereas Germany just tried to benefit from a cozy status quo without any particular strategic goals.

[Sheilbh]

I think on China and Russia, Germany has been criticised by allies and made arguments on why it followed that course. I think there is a strategy that was explained and justified in international forums and to allies.

Also I think there's been a series of decisions - when those decisions are made and they all broadly point in the same direction, having the same result/effects, then I think that's a strategy. There is a conscious decision involved, even in just trying to benefit from a cozy status quo or from inaction.

Also I think there is the example of other countries, for example with energy deciding to try and expand their re-gasification/LNG capacity and investing in relations to diversify away from Russia. While Germany has moved slowly on that and in fact increased the proportion of its gas that comes from Russia since 2014. I think that indicates a strategic decision/choice made by Germany even if it was just inaction/the status quo. I don't think strategy necessarily means change.