The EU thread

[The Brain]

Who doesn't trust the guys in Parliament?

[Jacob]

Who doesn't trust the guys in Parliament?

Good question. Someone should make a handy map for reference.

[Sheilbh]

From a Brussel correspondent:

Alex Pigman
@AlexRPigman
Germany and France have pressed upon EU council chief Charles Michel to keep rule-of-law off the agenda at the EU summit. He has (so far) acquiesced. Merkel on Friday said that careful dialogue with Warsaw should be the way and France never warms to the topic anyway.
In other words, neither of them want the LGBTI fireworks from the summit in June, where Merkel and Macron came out as dinosaurs when the summit veered into an emotional free-for-all against Viktor Orban on LGBTI rights, sparked by PM Rutte of the NL and Bettel of Lux.
Can Merkel/Macron put the genie back in the bottle? A lot will probably hang on the Polish PM's speech in Strasbourg tomorrow, and of course if Rutte and friends make rule-of-law a topic on Thursday, regardless of the agenda.

This sounds sub-optimal.

I get Merkel's point that part of the deal to get the rule of law stuff through was a promise to Poland and Hungary that it wouldn't be used while their case is still at the CJEU asking if these rule rule of law package is ultra vires (which it could be, it certainly seems beyond the treaties - though the CJEU willl never find that). But as I say the CJEU might expedite things, if not then it'll be probably a year before a decision and I feel like Duda and Orban could get a lot done in a year.

Edit: From other Brussels reporters/commentators it feels like the likely solution (which will just kick the can down the road) is that the Commission will approve the Polish recovery fund plan so Poland gets that money, but activate the rule of law mechanism which will start a fairly lengthy procedure. Everyone can say something's been done and there's enough of a compromise that everyone saves face - of course the legal situation in Poland is unchanged and uncompromised on but...

[Sheilbh]

Morawiecki was invited to speak to the European Parliament and it doesn't seem to have gone well. To begin with he was apparently asked to speak for 5 minutes (which seems short for a head of a government in a big fight with the EU) but apparently had been told he had longer beforehand. He spoke for over 30 minutes.

VdL's argument is it's a challenge to the European legal order and they won't allow common values to be put at risk. She invoked John Paul II and Walesa - that might appeal to older Poles but I imagine have less relevance for the young women protesting Poland's abortion laws.

Morawiecki talked about constituional pluralism and "judgements of courts from other EU member states" (as expected). He also had an attack on the Netherlands and Luxembourg (Benelux nations are pushing for rule of law to be on the EUCO agenda). Basically he says the EU tolerates tax havens at the heart of the EU, who are rich countries making other European countries poorer and don't address that (because it's a little bit beyond the treaties) but will go after Poland for what its doing to the judiciary (also a little bit beyond the treaties). Basically the EU is, without base in law, attacking and financially blackmailing some countries while giving others a fair ride.

He went for a European originalism/textualism that the CJEU keeps coming up with new competencies of the EU in its case law "despite what the treaties say", which isn't an entirely untrue point. He talked about establishing a new chamber of the CJEU that's composed of judge's nominated by each member state's constitutional court to help stop this.

And complained about the EU having bigger problems while they're focusing on this - particularly noting the bigger problems around Russia, energy, security in CEE which he positioned Poland as being a leader on (with some amazing historical takes like Poland saved Paris from communism in 1920).

It then took an energy detour when a German Green MEP accused Morawiecki of acting like Putin. Morawiecki responded with a comment about the German government allowing Nord Stream 2 and quoted the Polish defence minister in comparing it to a "modern day Molotov-Ribbentrop pact". VdL noted that with turning to Nord Stream "your arguments are not getting better, you are just escaping the debate."

Lots of clips on Twitter from all the MEPs having their two minutes to berate him which I get is just the parliament venting (and they can put it on their own socials for their own constituents) but I think will be something that PiS will definitely package on social media.

I also slightly worry about the fact that this fight in Poland is being led by Tusk and PO because I think it might lead to partisan identities splitting view on Europe (there's already a poll which has shown support for staying in the EU fall from 85-90% to about 2/3s) - I'd worry about Europe becoming a PO/PiS issue and it might be wise for Tusk/the opposition to take a step back and allow more obviously non-partisan pro-EU movement/protests.

[Zanza]

Today was Merkel's 107th and likely last EU Council. She was lauded there, but I find her record mixed.

[Tamas]

I don't think history will be as kind to Merkel as contemporaries seem to be. I keep returning to the decision on closing down the nuclear plants because of Fukushima because I have found that to be a perfect summary of her rule. A great sense and taste for immediate political benefits, actioned with an eye toward consensus and avoiding conflict. Great for day to day management but not very good for doing what needs to be done.

[Sheilbh]

Today was Merkel's 107th and likely last EU Council. She was lauded there, but I find her record mixed.

Yeah. I think it's undoubted that she's incredibly valuable within the Council because she does keep dialogue open and help build towards a common solution.

But on the big, strategic European items - energy, rise of China, rise of authoritaraianism within Europe - I'm not sure her record is strong. I think with the Euro crisis there is a case that her and her government helped save the Euro, my perspective would be that they pushed it to the brink (and that might happen again post covid if the FDP get the Finance Ministry). The most difficult for me is migration because I think her response was correct and outstanding on the refugee crisis, but I think the fact it was alone possibly led to the situation we now have of a harder and more lethal border around Europe and relying on Erdogan etc to keep migrants out.

The big problem I have is that I try to think of her great achievement/legacy as a leader and I'm not sure I can think of one - possibly the refugee crisis, maybe the (German) response to the financial crisis? It's not nothing but it feels less substantive than you'd expect after 3 terms.

I also find it slightly odd that she voted against gay marriage in 2017 when it was legalised, but was still a liberal icon for many globally - I always felt it was more because of what people projected onto Merkel (and others - I think there's similar madness with RBG, with Macron, with Arden etc) rather than anything to do with her actual politics. I think I remember reading one piece in the UK that was some incredibly torturous conspiracy theory about why Merkel voted against it. It was bizarre.

I don't think history will be as kind to Merkel as contemporaries seem to be.

I think a lot of that depends on what comes next.

[Grey Fox]

Norway really need to gets it's shit sorted.

[Duque de Bragança]

I also find it slightly odd that she voted against gay marriage in 2017 when it was legalised, but was still a liberal icon for many globally - I always felt it was more because of what people projected onto Merkel (and others - I think there's similar madness with RBG, with Macron, with Arden etc) rather than anything to do with her actual politics. I think I remember reading one piece in the UK that was some incredibly torturous conspiracy theory about why Merkel voted against it. It was bizarre.

I don't think history will be as kind to Merkel as contemporaries seem to be.

I think a lot of that depends on what comes next.

Who the hell projected on Jupin besides you? 

[Jacob]

Norway really need to gets it's shit sorted.

What are you referring to?

[Grey Fox]

Norway really need to gets it's shit sorted.

What are you referring to?

The previous maps, Trust in Others and Parliements. No data from Norway. As an outsider, it really seems incomplete.

[Jacob]

The previous maps, Trust in Others and Parliements. No data from Norway. As an outsider, it really seems incomplete.

[Duque de Bragança]

The previous maps, Trust in Others and Parliements. No data from Norway. As an outsider, it really seems incomplete.

Norway is such a grey zone. 

[Sheilbh]

Who the hell projected on Jupin besides you? 

I think there was loads of international interest/projection on Macron - which he actively encourages/encouraged. Just do a Google search in the American press in 2017. As I say same with Arden, Trudeau etc.

[Duque de Bragança]

Who the hell projected on Jupin besides you? 

I think there was loads of international interest/projection on Macron - which he actively encourages/encouraged. Just do a Google search in the American press in 2017. As I say same with Arden, Trudeau etc.

So the Golden Veal burning phase is over?

Jupin is less worse than Trudeau. Beyond that...