US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Grey Fox]

I don't think there has been a day without precipitation over the entire continental US since we started recording these thing. Maybe more.

[Valmy]

I think the polls are overstating Biden's chances. Not because of shy Trump voters (which I think might still be an issue, but not as much as in 2016).

However, the reason why Biden's ratings are overstated is because of early/postal voting being largely tilted towards Democratic voters and also the scale of early voting this year due to Covid. Given that pollsters use likelihood to vote as a metric on how to rate the strength of each voter, and that Democrats polled are more likely to say that they have voted compared to Republicans, thereby giving a rating of 1 on likelihood to vote, that gives Biden a bias in the polling, making him look more likely to win than he actually is, given that Republicans are more likely to vote later / on the day.

But early voting has only been going on for a month. We should see a big Biden surge if what you are saying is true but I don't see it. Everything seems pretty stable.

Unless you are saying there is a big Trump surge going on right now we are missing. I guess that could be true.

[celedhring]

My only fear is a massive polling error caused by their turnout models, given the unique circumstances of this election.

[Valmy]

My only fear is a massive polling error caused by their turnout models, given the unique circumstances of this election.

All I can say is all you need to do is look at the turnout that has already occured as well as what we can reasonably predict going forward, and then compare it to previous election results and, for Texas anyway, it matches the current polling pretty closely.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think the polls are overstating Biden's chances. Not because of shy Trump voters (which I think might still be an issue, but not as much as in 2016).

However, the reason why Biden's ratings are overstated is because of early/postal voting being largely tilted towards Democratic voters and also the scale of early voting this year due to Covid. Given that pollsters use likelihood to vote as a metric on how to rate the strength of each voter, and that Democrats polled are more likely to say that they have voted compared to Republicans, thereby giving a rating of 1 on likelihood to vote, that gives Biden a bias in the polling, making him look more likely to win than he actually is, given that Republicans are more likely to vote later / on the day.

It's possible early voting could skew the likely voter screen, but not the registered voter screen--which for most polls is showing an almost identical lead for Joe.

[PJL]

I think the polls are overstating Biden's chances. Not because of shy Trump voters (which I think might still be an issue, but not as much as in 2016).

However, the reason why Biden's ratings are overstated is because of early/postal voting being largely tilted towards Democratic voters and also the scale of early voting this year due to Covid. Given that pollsters use likelihood to vote as a metric on how to rate the strength of each voter, and that Democrats polled are more likely to say that they have voted compared to Republicans, thereby giving a rating of 1 on likelihood to vote, that gives Biden a bias in the polling, making him look more likely to win than he actually is, given that Republicans are more likely to vote later / on the day.

But early voting has only been going on for a month. We should see a big Biden surge if what you are saying is true but I don't see it. Everything seems pretty stable.

Unless you are saying there is a big Trump surge going on right now we are missing. I guess that could be true.

I wouldn't say it's a massive surge, but it's telling that the Biden leads have got bigger since late September when early voting really got underway.  I would argue that it's increased the gap nationally between then by about 2% (+1 for Biden, -1 for Trump).

[Eddie Teach]

Holy crap, we still have mods.

[FunkMonk]

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/29/texas-dan-patrick-elections-voting/

Texas Republicans are freaking out right now

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick repeated unsubstantiated claims in a Thursday interview that the only way Republicans can lose on Election Day is if Democrats cheat.

"The Democrats have just decided this election, Mark, we don't have to pay attention to any laws. We're gonna use COVID as an excuse to steal the election, and that's what they're trying to do everywhere," Patrick, a Republican, said during a radio interview on "The Mark Davis Show." "If the president loses Pennsylvania or North Carolina, Mark, or Florida, they'll lose it because they stole it.

...

If he wins or whenever it's announced, or if he's ahead on that day, I'm afraid our cities are gonna burn in America," Patrick said. "Texans, we're law and order people. We'll follow the law, and for those who don't, we'll be ready to take them on."

Earlier this week the Texas Army National Guard said up to 1,000 troops could be dispatched to five major cities — Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and San Antonio — ahead of Tuesday's election.

Gov. Greg Abbott last activated the National Guard in late May following a series of protests that emerged across the state in response to the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police.

In early voting, Texas just reached 100% of it's total 2016 turnout.

[mongers]

In early voting, Texas just reached 100% of it's total 2016 turnout.

I saw that too, if Texas does go democrat, maybe no one will follow Trump down any foxholes he digs about him.

[FunkMonk]

Prediction for the Prediction Thread: Joe Biden will win the national popular vote by over 10 percent.

[fromtia]

What does everyone make of early voting? Up to 93 million now, so assuming that a lot of people vote on election day as well, we could be looking at a really high turnout, which is a good thing. What if assuming this is not enthusiasm, but covid and we end up with about the same overall turnout though, about 130, 140 million? What if "shy Trump voters"* are actually a thing? Im staying with my prediction of an agonizingly close Biden win, but I'm going to add Trump declaring victory very early on Tuesday evening and claiming the election is fraudulent via twitter as the night goes on. Wackiness ensues.





*an oxymoron surely.

[Oexmelin]

« I am here to remind you Trump can still win »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[Syt]

Guess someone's getting the bunker ready.

[Valmy]

That's weird. I can't think of anything like that happening before.

I would presume it is just in anticipation of something similar to the post-2016 election protests.

[garbon]

« I am here to remind you Trump can still win »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

No duh.