US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, we are the insane ones. 

[FunkMonk]

I can see Donald going scorched earth on the Republican party if they fail to back him up in continuing to contest the election. Rant and rave at Mitch and Fox News and say he's leaving to go form a new party, starting with Trump TV as its media centerpiece. He can continue milking donations off his cult followers.

[Barrister]

Polling firms released the actual numbers a few days before the 2016 election to retain some shred of credibility. Very fishy these massive last-minute swings to Trump. You were ridin' with Biden and then just all of a sudden you changed your mind for Trump? 

There a 2 possibilities, either Trump retains all or most of his 2016 map and wins or Biden sweeps every swing state except Florida. We'll see.

What is fishy about the polls crunching in the 2016 election when they had done so two times previously in the same election and in the same fucking graph you are looking at? And these things things happening in political polling, where leads grow and contract as things happen, is not even unusual.

Do you come up with elaborate conspiracy theories any time a bus is 10 minutes late? 'OH MY SOMETHING THAT HAPPENS ALL THE TIME HAPPENED!!!111 VERY FISHY!!!11'

Anyway I haven't seen any last minute breaks for Trump in this election so I don't get the Biden comment.

Heard the following analysis:

The Biden campaign has seen all the polls we can see.  They also have access to their own internal polls, which are much more detailed than public polling.

Having reviewed that information where are they sending Joe Biden?  Texas.  They feel they have this one in the bag.  The Biden campaign doesn't see any narrowing either.

What about 2016?  Yes Hillary did not visit Wisconsin at all, a state which turned out to be pivotal.  But where did Hillary go on the Friday before election day?  Michigan, a state nobody had on their radar as being a swing state (and of course a state Trump narrowly won).

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - Texas and Georgia.

I'd also compare that with Trump who is doing numerous campaign stops in Pennsylvania.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I had some friends complain about Biden going to TX/GA, but I also pointed out unlike Hillary Biden spent most of the last 6 months largely messaging to PA / WI / MI, in contrast to HRC who took her "wall" for granted. Now Biden's overall public appearances aren't easily comparable to past campaigns due to Covid, but functionally he's done as much that he probably can do in PA, so it is fine for him to take some swings at a couple stretch goals.

[Josquius]

Just a shame Bush won't make that final step in standing up for democracy and endorse Biden. That would help in Texas right?

[Valmy]

Just a shame Bush won't make that final step in standing up for democracy and endorse Biden. That would help in Texas right?

The Bush family still has their loyalists in Texas. Whenever I go into an older person's home it is not unusual to see ghostwritten books by Barb and Laura and so forth laying around.

But you have to remember the Bush family still has younger members trying to claw their way up the Republican ranks. They are indicating their dislike of Donald by their silence but they are not going to come out against the nominee in a big public way. George Prescott Bush is the Republican Land Commissioner for Texas with ambitions, for example.

[Eddie Teach]

Pence has little reason to do so, however.

Pence has a huge reason to do so.  He wants to be President, and at this point he's hitched his wagon firmly to MAGA-world.  The last thing he wants is for Trump to turn on him at the last minute.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I expect Trump's influence to fade away once he's no longer President.

[Barrister]

Just a shame Bush won't make that final step in standing up for democracy and endorse Biden. That would help in Texas right?

If you're paying attention you know where the Bushes stand vis-a-vis Trump.  It's notable GWB has not endorsed, and has not campaigned for, Trump, while Obama has been quite visible campaigning for Biden.

ANd if you're not paying attention, then it's likely a GWB endorsement for Biden wouldn't have any effect on you anyways.

[Barrister]

Pence has little reason to do so, however.

Pence has a huge reason to do so.  He wants to be President, and at this point he's hitched his wagon firmly to MAGA-world.  The last thing he wants is for Trump to turn on him at the last minute.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I expect Trump's influence to fade away once he's no longer President.

I used to think so - that the day after his defeat Republicans everywhere would be going "Trump?  Trump who?", but I no longer believe that to be the case.  He's got a pretty firm hold on his followers.  So much so that I think the leading candidate to be the 2024 Republican nominee is Donald J Trump.

[Razgovory]

That would make indicting Trump a priority...

[Barrister]

That would make indicting Trump a priority...

Why?  Nothing in the Constitution prohibits a convicted felon from running for President.  The evidence on impeachment was pretty damning, yet Trumpists were unconcerned about it.  Any evidence against Trump will just be claimed to be "fake news".

[PJL]

I think the polls are overstating Biden's chances. Not because of shy Trump voters (which I think might still be an issue, but not as much as in 2016).

However, the reason why Biden's ratings are overstated is because of early/postal voting being largely tilted towards Democratic voters and also the scale of early voting this year due to Covid. Given that pollsters use likelihood to vote as a metric on how to rate the strength of each voter, and that Democrats polled are more likely to say that they have voted compared to Republicans, thereby giving a rating of 1 on likelihood to vote, that gives Biden a bias in the polling, making him look more likely to win than he actually is, given that Republicans are more likely to vote later / on the day.

[Josquius]

So... Hope for rain?
That's what did it for brexit. It was a fine day on polling day.

[Valmy]

So... Hope for rain?
That's what did it for brexit. It was a fine day on polling day.

I mean we are a huge country. It will rain somewhere.

But voter suppression usually works out better for them than us.