US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Barrister]

Isn't Thatcher viewed much like Reagan?

Reagan never really generated the hostility Thatcher did.

The left was pretty hostile to Reagan...

Yeah but it was a pretty normal level of hostility. There was still bipartisan support to be had for many of his initiatives. The left would work with him.

Disagree.

Southern democrats would and did work with him.  "The left" did not.

[crazy canuck]

Isn't Thatcher viewed much like Reagan?

Reagan never really generated the hostility Thatcher did.

The left was pretty hostile to Reagan...

Haven't seen a musical dedicated to criticism of Reagan.

[crazy canuck]

Isn't Thatcher viewed much like Reagan?

Reagan never really generated the hostility Thatcher did.

The left was pretty hostile to Reagan...

Yeah but it was a pretty normal level of hostility. There was still bipartisan support to be had for many of his initiatives. The left would work with him.

Disagree.

Southern democrats would and did work with him.  "The left" did not.

Oh goodie, a game of the left is whatever I say it is. 

[Valmy]

Disagree.

Southern democrats would and did work with him.  "The left" did not.

That a fact? Let's see some evidence. I see lots of Democrats from several different regions of the country supporting some aspects of his legislation. A majority of Democrats supported his tax bill in 1986. That would NEVER happen today. That would be a straight party line vote and Reagan would have lost it.

I need to see what you mean by "the left" to agree or disagree with you. I am sure the CPUSA did not work with Reagan. Unless a Republican President gets 100% loyalty and support from 100% of the Democrats then he was cruely and unfairly targetted by "the left" whomever that is?

I mean he was a Republican President. Some people are going to hate him. Be reasonable.

[Barrister]

Isn't Thatcher viewed much like Reagan?

Reagan never really generated the hostility Thatcher did.

The left was pretty hostile to Reagan...

Yeah but it was a pretty normal level of hostility. There was still bipartisan support to be had for many of his initiatives. The left would work with him.

Disagree.

Southern democrats would and did work with him.  "The left" did not.

Oh goodie, a game of the left is whatever I say it is.

This was a well-known phenomenon.  The south of course used to be heavily Democratic - the Republican Party of course was the party of Lincoln and Reconstruction.  That started to shift in the 1960s with Civil Rights.  So you had a large block of southern democrats who drew their support from their white consituents, but were rather out-of-place within the larger national Democratic Party.  In order to preserve their seats they were willing to work with Reagan.  They were called the Dixiecrats or the blue-dog Democrats.  When Joe Biden talked about how he could work across the aisle in the Senate he mentioned working with the Dixiecrats.

Of course long-term it didn't work.  Some switched parties to the GOP like Sen Richard Shelby, but most eventually lost and the south became a reliably republican area by the 1990s.

[alfred russel]

The reason Nixon resigned is because the Republicans were repudiating him and he would have lost the impeachment vote. 

Many republicans did. Many republicans did not. When Nixon resigned he still had ~25% support - probably around half of Republicans.

The reason Ford pardoned him is that Ford feared a prosecution would tear the country apart - precisely because there never was a universal repudiation.

[The Brain]

The reason Nixon resigned is because the Republicans were repudiating him and he would have lost the impeachment vote. 

Many republicans did. Many republicans did not. When Nixon resigned he still had ~25% support - probably around half of Republicans.

The reason Ford pardoned him is that Ford feared a prosecution would tear the country apart - precisely because there never was a universal repudiation.

What, specifically, was Nixon pardoned for?

[alfred russel]

What, specifically, was Nixon pardoned for?

Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.

Anything he did between January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974 apparently.

[The Minsky Moment]

What, specifically, was Nixon pardoned for?

the unforgivable.

[grumbler]

BB, the relations between Reagan and Tip O'Neil (from Boston, so hardly a Blue Dog) were strained to begin with, but warmed over time, and they cooperated to get a number of significant legislative initiatives passed.  Not even you can plausibly argue that Tip O'Neil, whose #1 legislative priority was always universal health care, was not on the left.

[The Brain]

What, specifically, was Nixon pardoned for?

Now, THEREFORE, I, GERALD R. FORD, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.

Anything he did between January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974 apparently.

Thanks. What's the definition of "offenses against the United States"?

Edit: for instance, if it had turned out he murdered some hookers in '71, would that be included in the pardon?

[Sheilbh]

Is Texas in play? I don't know yet. Based on what we have seen I see a 50-48 or so Trump win. Closer than 2018 (I am talking about the Cruz-Beto Senate Race). But we will see. It is actually quite predictable if you know how each county usually votes plus their turnout now that we have the majority of the vote in.

Weirdly minutes after our conversation here the Cook Political Report moved Texas from "Lean Republican" to the "Toss-Up", with states like Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida (which will eternally be a toss-up state).

I think it makes sense in this way - if there's enough of a swing that Trump loses Texas, that swing taking place in other states as well means that Trump is toast.

Yeah I mean I don't think anyone is saying it will be the state that makes the difference.

I just find the Republican decision not to do campaign stops there and the Biden doing campaign stops there a bit odd. And wonder if it will, on the night, be one of those campaign decisions taht are raked over afterwards.

I don't think Texas will go blue this year, but that it may in the future.  If the GOP wants to hold onto Texas they are going to need to repudiate Trump and Trumpism.  It simply doesn't make sense in a state with such a large number of Hispanics.

According to the polls - and this may change if turnout is higher - Trump is doing better with Hispanics in 2020 (especially Hispanic men) than he did in 2016. The real loss college educated white people, plus some big changes in white men.

Parties usually move on from disastrous leaders without formal repudiation. I don't think the Republicans ever really repudiated Nixon--Roger Stone even has a Nixon tattoo. The Tories never repudiated Thatcher.

Thatcher won three landslide elections and was overthrown in an internal Tory coup. It is now very fashionable to ostentatiously hate Thatcher, which I think is a bit over the top (unless you're actually from the North or the Central Belt). She wasn't disastrous for the Tories, she's more Reagan than Nixon (and like Reagan the left is now pushing back against their myth - with more success in the US).

But it's a bit like the ostentatious hate the Tories attract on social media while winning 40-45% of the vote in a multi-party system and have a majority of 80+ seats.

[grumbler]

Thanks. What's the definition of "offenses against the United States"?

Edit: for instance, if it had turned out he murdered some hookers in '71, would that be included in the pardon?

Federal crimes.  I suppose he could get away with murdering a hooker on an air force base in Japan, but then be liable to the local law.  Murder is generally a state crime, and Presidential pardons don't cover against state charges.

[The Minsky Moment]

Yeah I mean I don't think anyone is saying it will be the state that makes the difference.

I just find the Republican decision not to do campaign stops there and the Biden doing campaign stops there a bit odd. And wonder if it will, on the night, be one of those campaign decisions taht are raked over afterwards.

It suggests Trump's political arson against American democracy is working.  There is no strategic reason for Team Biden to campaign there except to increase the chances of a blowout that would render trumpist shenanigans irrelevant.

[Sheilbh]

It suggests Trump's political arson against American democracy is working.  There is no strategic reason for Team Biden to campaign there except to increase the chances of a blowout that would render trumpist shenanigans irrelevant.

Maybe. But surely the alternatives are that their polling shows they are on-course to win and are now looking at expanding the map or baiting the Trump campaign to spend money and time in a red state, or that they think they're winning and they're looking to boost turn-out for Senate campaigns (I think Cornyn is running pretty close).