US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[alfred russel]

I'm guessing that out of one side of his mouth he accepts the loss graciously and there is a fairly typical transfer of power. Out of the other side of his mouth, he talks about how the media was biased against him, covered up massive Biden corruption, the democrats undermined him from the start, he had massive accomplishments in unprecedented circumstances, and he still almost won.

[alfred russel]

Fingers crossed he pulls a strop and goes to play golf for 2 months.

More likely...he seems to already be booby trapping the government.

I also wonder how long it'll be before the torch is handed over to one of the kids. Will they be impatient enough for Trump 2: 2024, or will they wait a bit?

He never even really took control of the government, what makes you think he can booby trap it in a couple of months?

[Josquius]

Fingers crossed he pulls a strop and goes to play golf for 2 months.

More likely...he seems to already be booby trapping the government.

I also wonder how long it'll be before the torch is handed over to one of the kids. Will they be impatient enough for Trump 2: 2024, or will they wait a bit?

He never even really took control of the government, what makes you think he can booby trap it in a couple of months?

Haven't looked into it in detail, but seeing bits like this coming out
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-executive-order-civil-service-biden-election-schedule-f-b1255692.html

[FunkMonk]

I'll say the only x-factor for me is the whole Covid situation. It seems like there will be record turnout this year, but the makeup of that turnout is unknown. Legions of new Trump voters that all the polling somehow missed could come out en massé on election day and save the day for Donald, like Gandalf and the Rohirrim at Helm's Deep.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think there's a non-zero chance if Trump loses convincingly, he has a few days/weeks of temper tantrums and then resigns and gives Pence the keys for the transition.

[Syt]

If Trump loses convincingly, and doesn't resort to shenanigans, I expect scorched earth till the handover.

I mean, any following president will have their hands full refilling a lot of vacated positions, anyways, I see Trump making the transition as hard as possible.

[Sheilbh]

I think there's a non-zero chance if Trump loses convincingly, he has a few days/weeks of temper tantrums and then resigns and gives Pence the keys for the transition.

Yeah. That wouldn't surprise me. I just try to imagine a Trump concession speech, or Trump sitting at a Biden inauguration and I can't see it.

[Barrister]

I think there's a non-zero chance if Trump loses convincingly, he has a few days/weeks of temper tantrums and then resigns and gives Pence the keys for the transition.

Yeah. That wouldn't surprise me. I just try to imagine a Trump concession speech, or Trump sitting at a Biden inauguration and I can't see it.

I can just imagine a Trump concession speech.  It'd be read from a teleprompter and it would be terrible, but he could do it.

Then 15 minutes later on Twitter he'll rant about how he should still be President.

[Josquius]

I think there's a non-zero chance if Trump loses convincingly, he has a few days/weeks of temper tantrums and then resigns and gives Pence the keys for the transition.

You know, that actually seems pretty nice of him. Giving his buddy a go at being president before its over.
This comes to mind:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYz1ADttI1g

[crazy canuck]

I think there's a non-zero chance if Trump loses convincingly, he has a few days/weeks of temper tantrums and then resigns and gives Pence the keys for the transition.

You know, that actually seems pretty nice of him. Giving his buddy a go at being president before its over.

And the power to pardon....

[Eddie Teach]

Pence has little reason to do so, however.

[Barrister]

Pence has little reason to do so, however.

Pence has a huge reason to do so.  He wants to be President, and at this point he's hitched his wagon firmly to MAGA-world.  The last thing he wants is for Trump to turn on him at the last minute.

[crazy canuck]

Pence has little reason to do so, however.

Why do you think that is Eddie?  Does Pence have a shot in 2024 without Trumpist backing?

[Valmy]

Polling firms released the actual numbers a few days before the 2016 election to retain some shred of credibility. Very fishy these massive last-minute swings to Trump. You were ridin' with Biden and then just all of a sudden you changed your mind for Trump? 

There a 2 possibilities, either Trump retains all or most of his 2016 map and wins or Biden sweeps every swing state except Florida. We'll see.

What is fishy about the polls crunching in the 2016 election when they had done so two times previously in the same election and in the same fucking graph you are looking at? And these things things happening in political polling, where leads grow and contract as things happen, is not even unusual.

Do you come up with elaborate conspiracy theories any time a bus is 10 minutes late? 'OH MY SOMETHING THAT HAPPENS ALL THE TIME HAPPENED!!!111 VERY FISHY!!!11'

Anyway I haven't seen any last minute breaks for Trump in this election so I don't get the Biden comment.

[alfred russel]

Fingers crossed he pulls a strop and goes to play golf for 2 months.

More likely...he seems to already be booby trapping the government.

I also wonder how long it'll be before the torch is handed over to one of the kids. Will they be impatient enough for Trump 2: 2024, or will they wait a bit?

He never even really took control of the government, what makes you think he can booby trap it in a couple of months?

Haven't looked into it in detail, but seeing bits like this coming out
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/trump-executive-order-civil-service-biden-election-schedule-f-b1255692.html

Did you read the article? There is an executive order that COULD give him the power to do stuff that would then destroy a Biden administration.

I find the whole premise farfetched that Trump is going to lose the election, and in two months fire off the senior civil service and when Biden takes office in January, Biden will be unable to function because everyone is gone. Except of course the Trump loyalists that were put in newly unfireable positions.

I think Languish has, on the whole, gone completely insane since Trump got elected. Even Minsky is talking about militias taking charge to overturn the election in Pennsylvania. Trump is going to lose, he is going to throw a bit of a temper tantrum, may not attend the inauguration, and the world will keep turning. I used to wonder why Russians were so stupidly conspiracy minded--maybe it is a consequence of living under incompetent and fundamentally dishonest leadership.