US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Habbaku]

[FunkMonk]

It suggests Trump's political arson against American democracy is working.  There is no strategic reason for Team Biden to campaign there except to increase the chances of a blowout that would render trumpist shenanigans irrelevant.

Maybe. But surely the alternatives are that their polling shows they are on-course to win and are now looking at expanding the map or baiting the Trump campaign to spend money and time in a red state, or that they think they're winning and they're looking to boost turn-out for Senate campaigns (I think Cornyn is running pretty close).

Texas Dems have been begging the Biden campaign to show them some love. The down ballot races this year are extremely important in Texas. They are 9 seats away from seizing control of the Texas House and therefore having some control in next year's redistricting. It's arguably more important to Texas Dems than Biden winning the state.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/21/texas-house-republicans-democrats-2020/

[Valmy]

Yeah we have all kinds of interesting possibilities during this election. County offices, state offices, city offices, Congressional seats, State House seats, State Senate seats, and a US Senate seat that have been in Republican hands for 25 years or more are suddenly within our grasp. It could be a near miss like 2018 but its possible.

Because we are gerrymandered we actually have a bigger chance of capturing the state house than winning any of the state wide elections. It is the risk of gerrymandering your opponents. All those 50+1 districts can become 50+1 districts for the other guy if things start shifting.

The national Democratic Party has to realize what could be achieved here if they made it a priority.

[Valmy]

Heh. I remember those heady days in October 2016 where it looked like for a minute Hillary was going to pull it out after it getting really close in September. Then suddenly it all collapsed again.

[The Brain]

Thanks. What's the definition of "offenses against the United States"?

Edit: for instance, if it had turned out he murdered some hookers in '71, would that be included in the pardon?

Federal crimes.  I suppose he could get away with murdering a hooker on an air force base in Japan, but then be liable to the local law.  Murder is generally a state crime, and Presidential pardons don't cover against state charges.

Thanks.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah we have all kinds of interesting possibilities during this election. County offices, state offices, city offices, Congressional seats, State House seats, State Senate seats, and a US Senate seat that have been in Republican hands for 25 years or more are suddenly within our grasp. It could be a near miss like 2018 but its possible.

Because we are gerrymandered we actually have a bigger chance of capturing the state house than winning any of the state wide elections. It is the risk of gerrymandering your opponents. All those 50+1 districts can become 50+1 districts for the other guy if things start shifting.

The national Democratic Party has to realize what could be achieved here if they made it a priority.

Yeah and the bigger point is where the Democrats go from here. It's that issue of do they follow the results in 2018 and bet on suburbs/college educated voters (Piketty's Brahmin Left v Merchant Right), which is, of course, linked to what the GOP do after the election (regardless of who wins).

It feels to me like Ohio is similar to Texas but going in the opposite direction. So Texas is going from being a Republican state to, potentially, a swing state while Ohio is, possibly, becoming more Republican and less of a swing state.

[Maladict]

It feels to me like Ohio is similar to Texas but going in the opposite direction. So Texas is going from being a Republican state to, potentially, a swing state while Ohio is, possibly, becoming more Republican and less of a swing state.

PA might also go the same way, but probably not as quickly as Ohio.

[Legbiter]

Heh. I remember those heady days in October 2016 where it looked like for a minute Hillary was going to pull it out after it getting really close in September. Then suddenly it all collapsed again.

Polling firms released the actual numbers a few days before the 2016 election to retain some shred of credibility. Very fishy these massive last-minute swings to Trump. You were ridin' with Biden and then just all of a sudden you changed your mind for Trump? 

There a 2 possibilities, either Trump retains all or most of his 2016 map and wins or Biden sweeps every swing state except Florida. We'll see.

[Habbaku]

Polling firms released the actual numbers a few days before the 2016 election to retain some shred of credibility. Very fishy these massive last-minute swings to Trump. You were ridin' with Biden and then just all of a sudden you changed your mind for Trump? 

There a 2 possibilities, either Trump retains all or most of his 2016 map and wins or Biden sweeps every swing state except Florida. We'll see.

I realize this may be difficult to understand, but Biden wasn't running in 2016.

Your false dichotomy is also stupid and disconnected with reality.

[Maladict]

Very fishy these massive last-minute swings to Trump. You were ridin' with Biden and then just all of a sudden you changed your mind for Trump? 

How is it different from the massive swings to Clinton a couple of weeks earlier?

Trump-Clinton polling was very wobbly throughout, Trump-Biden on the other hand has been very stable.

[Sheilbh]

Also it is quite common to have a late break. It isn't necessarily people changing their mind but the "don't knows" making up theirs which tends to happen late in a campaign and normally goes one way, it's quite rare, from what I understand, that they basically go 50-50. In 2016 I think 2/3s of  late deciders went for Trump, in the Brexit referendum it was similar and the late deciders voted for Leave, in 2015 it was the same and they went for Cameron not Miliband.

The challenge for pollsters is to capture this because, obviously, they don't have much time. I think a key difference with 2016 is there are fewer "don't knows" at this stage of the campaign than there were then - probably becuase there are far fewer people who really don't like Joe Biden than who really don't like Clinton.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah, I mention this a lot, a big difference between '16 is Biden is above 50% in a number of the important states, Hillary was often stuck in the 45-48 range in those same states. Even if a disproportionate percentage of the undecided in these states break for Trump, if the polling is accurate at all, it still won't put him past Biden.

[FunkMonk]

If Trump wins this election the science of polling will be destroyed. Basically everything is pointing to a Biden victory. Massive leads in national and state polling, district-level polling which in 2016 flashed warning signs that Clinton ignored are now pointing toward a Trump massacre in house districts he easily carried in 2016.

The only polling outfits even remotely bullish for Donald are the partisan hacks at Rasmussen and Trafalgar and the polls Trump's super PAC releases for fundraising. It's not looking good for Big Don.

[Sheilbh]

If Trump wins this election the science of polling will be destroyed. Basically everything is pointing to a Biden victory. Massive leads in national and state polling, district-level polling which in 2016 flashed warning signs that Clinton ignored are now pointing toward a Trump massacre in house districts he easily carried in 2016.

The only polling outfits even remotely bullish for Donald are the partisan hacks at Rasmussen and Trafalgar. It's not looking good for Big Don.

If that's all right and he does lose (especially if he loses badly) I am weirdly fascinated to see how he handles it. Like aside from him doing the court stuff and the risks of him as a lame duck, I just want to see what he does. He is the most needy person I have ever seen in political office and I just don't know what he'll do in the face of fairly massive rejection - how does he concede (does he concede or just let Biden declare victory?), will he invite Biden into the White House for a photo-shoot as is typical etc.

I mean given that this is a man who responded to winning, by claiming that his opponent cheated and there were 3 million illegal votes for her, I have no idea what he'll do if he loses.

One other thought I had - if he loses - is that he clearly is angling for a media platform where he'll bash Biden. But I wonder how much classified information he's been given over the last four years he will just blurt out on Fox in that situation.

[Josquius]

Fingers crossed he pulls a strop and goes to play golf for 2 months.

More likely...he seems to already be booby trapping the government.

I also wonder how long it'll be before the torch is handed over to one of the kids. Will they be impatient enough for Trump 2: 2024, or will they wait a bit?