UK extends visa rights to 3 million Hong Kongers

[Tamas]

Mono as you say, HK's advantage was that you had access to China without being in China. That is now gone. What you have instead is an occupied island where order is kept via force. I can easily see capital that wants to go to China going straight to the mainland. At least they don't run the risk of unrest. At least not nearly to the degree of HK.

[Monoriu]

Mono as you say, HK's advantage was that you had access to China without being in China. That is now gone. What you have instead is an occupied island where order is kept via force. I can easily see capital that wants to go to China going straight to the mainland. At least they don't run the risk of unrest. At least not nearly to the degree of HK.

We will see.  With the enactment of the National Security Law, I think unrest in HK will be largely tamed.  Those who are unhappy will either submit or go, and a lot of places are now willing to take them.  It has now been proven beyond doubt that large scale civil disobedience, even with 60-70% popular backing, will not yield political gains, and will even backfire. 

It isn't that easy for capital to go to the Mainland.  As of now, the Mainland capital accounts are still somewhat closed. 

I also think "maintaining order via force" is a massive simplification.  Force is a big part of it, but there are lots of other ways.  The most effective way is to make sure people lose their jobs if they oppose the government.  Peer pressure, buying all the media, dismantling and discrediting opposition organisations, patriotic education, etc etc.  It isn't just force.

[garbon]

Mono as you say, HK's advantage was that you had access to China without being in China. That is now gone. What you have instead is an occupied island where order is kept via force. I can easily see capital that wants to go to China going straight to the mainland. At least they don't run the risk of unrest. At least not nearly to the degree of HK.

Now who is falling into the trap of trying to debate Mono?

[Tamas]

Mono as you say, HK's advantage was that you had access to China without being in China. That is now gone. What you have instead is an occupied island where order is kept via force. I can easily see capital that wants to go to China going straight to the mainland. At least they don't run the risk of unrest. At least not nearly to the degree of HK.

Now who is falling into the trap of trying to debate Mono?

I am trying to open his eyes. He is cheering on the demise of his home.

[Monoriu]

You know what this means?  This photograph was taken yesterday, four days after the implementation of the National Security Law.  These people are lining up for the opportunity to buy a flat from a project called Sea to Sky.  These flats cost like US$2-3k per square foot.  They usually require a mortgage of 20-30 years, and an entire family's effort for the downpayment (parents, husband, wife).  There are a lot more buyers than flats available. 

What demise are you talking about?   

[Valmy]

It really shouldn't come as a shock that they decided to impose the national security law. 

After what that government has done in the past 20 years only the systematic mass murder of every man, woman, and child in Hong Kong would have been surprising. They generally never go that far.

[Monoriu]

It really shouldn't come as a shock that they decided to impose the national security law. 

After what that government has done in the past 20 years only the systematic mass murder of every man, woman, and child in Hong Kong would have been surprising. They generally never go that far.

You must mean consistent and steady GDP growth in the past 20 years, otherwise I don't know what you are talking about 

[Oexmelin]

I am trying to open his eyes.

lol

[grumbler]

I am trying to open his eyes. He is cheering on the demise of his home.

Only time will open his eyes.  He waits 5 minutes after a catastrophic event and says. "what tsunami from an earthquake 100 miles away?  Look, there are people splashing around in the ocean right now, and it's already been five minutes!"

I'm actually okay with the Chinese occupation Government betraying their treaty with the UK.  It might make some people in their neighboring countries wake up as to what kind of government the Chinese actually have now.

I do appreciate the efforts of the British and others to evacuate as many of the victims as they can, since it makes an otherwise painful situation much less so.  As Mono points out, the creative people can leave, and the drones can stay and make HK just another Chinese city.

[Monoriu]

I grow up here.  I have been hearing the "Hong Kong will die/will become just another Chinese city etc" line since I was in primary school.  It hasn't happened.  As far as civil liberties go, we aren't worse than say Singapore or Shanghai.  And these places are doing quite well. 

The reaction from the markets is very mild.  Stock markets have gone up since the announcement of the National Security Law.  Housing prices are quite steady.  Mainlanders are still lining up to come. 

As I said, I remain confident in the economic outlook.  The only real question is who will benefit from the prosperity.  I predict that the rich will get richer, and there will be more Mainland immigrants and they will get an increasing share of the pie at the expense of HKers. 

I think the argument between the two sides can be distilled to, when a fortune 500 real estate tycoon sells a flat, can he sell to a Mainland party chief with suitcases of cash, or is he limited to selling the flat to a HK young couple who between them barely make 4k a month and have to borrow the US$500k downpayment from their parents?  If the answer is yes, the tycoon will be richer, the Mainland immigrant will be happy, the HK young couple will be left with no choice but to spend half their income to rent a 100 square feet flat.  If the answer is no, the tycoon will be poorer, the Mainland immigrant can't come to HK, and the HK couple will be able to buy a flat with a lower price.  The real argument is whether the people can elect a government that will be willing to make this happen, and the question has been settled.   

[grumbler]

I grow up here.  I have been hearing the "Hong Kong will die/will become just another Chinese city etc" line since I was in primary school.  It hasn't happened. 

You remind me of the old story about the guy who fell off the 50-story building.  The people on the 30th floor heard him say, as he passed, "so far, so good."

[Monoriu]

I grow up here.  I have been hearing the "Hong Kong will die/will become just another Chinese city etc" line since I was in primary school.  It hasn't happened. 

You remind me of the old story about the guy who fell off the 50-story building.  The people on the 30th floor heard him say, as he passed, "so far, so good."

Only time will tell.  But if the doomsayers have been wrong in the past 20-30 years, why do you think they will get it right this time? 

I am not just saying this, but I am actually staying here despite having Canadian and UK passports

[Monoriu]

Beijing may not care about the middle class Hong Kong people, but they certainly don't want Hong Kong to crash.  They have direct, personal financial stakes here.  The Mainland party chiefs who bought the flats with suitcases of cash?  Those are the politburo members' children, families, relatives, friends, underlings, old pals.  They invested many billions in the HK stockmarket, companies and real estate here.  Hong Kong's prosperity is their prosperity. 

[Razgovory]

Classic problem of induction.

[Monoriu]

Classic problem of induction.

If that's the problem, then what is the solution?