Bernie v Joe, Who do you like?

[FunkMonk]

Who do I like?

Joe seems to be the kind of guy who you'd have beers with after work. Hard working, honest, says dumb shit all the time but you forgive him because he has a heart of gold and he reminds you of better times.

Bernie is the guy you meet at a party who won't stop shouting about how the capitalists have ruined the country and even though you agree with him, somehow he still seems like a pompous ass.

[Maximus]

Is there proof of Sanders having magical turnout powers?  From what I've read on 538, that hasn't materialized.

Proof? I doubt it; he hasn't been nominated yet.

[Barrister]

Or is he pretending to pull for Sanders knowing that it will hurt his chances at the nomination? This is one of those infinitely recursive questions. I don't think there's much to be gained from watching Trump. I personally think he's terrified of Sanders.

I stand by my statement that Trump has political savvy, but what he isn't is subtle.

For example his most recent tweet is:

They are staging a coup against Bernie!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1234592543821705219

Trump never says a bad word about Bernie.  Numerous Trump supporters were urging GOP voters in SC to vote for Bernie in the Dem primary in order to help Trump.  This isn't Trump playing 3-d chess here.

But the real reason to believe that Sanders is more likely to beat trump is that he will drive up turnout where it matters. Biden will drive it down.

There's zero evidence this is true.  Turnout is flat to down so far compared to 2016.  Sanders is not out performing his 2016 run.

[Eddie Teach]

I don't think "Crazy Bernie" is meant to be flattering.

[Barrister]

I don't think "Crazy Bernie" is meant to be flattering.

From last night:

Pete Buttigieg is OUT. All of his SuperTuesday votes will go to Sleepy Joe Biden. Great timing. This is the REAL beginning of the Dems taking Bernie out of play - NO NOMINATION, AGAIN!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1234263037110083587

Sleepy Joe Biden also said that guns killed 150 million Americans last year, wants to win Georgia on Super Tuesday (not up), and got his speaking location wrong again!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1234284276239261696

Democrats are working hard to destroy the name and reputation of Crazy Bernie Sanders, and take the nomination away from him!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233976658572566529

[Sophie Scholl]

Biden's best chance was in 2016. He declined to run. We saw what happened instead. The Republicans have been stockpiling ammo to use against him since he was VP. Who is honestly excited or motivated to vote by him running? He is the definition of "Boring Establishment Candidate".

[Barrister]

Biden's best chance was in 2016. He declined to run. We saw what happened instead. The Republicans have been stockpiling ammo to use against him since he was VP. Who is honestly excited or motivated to vote by him running? He is the definition of "Boring Establishment Candidate".

And that ammo hasn't already been spent?  Joe Biden is the most vetted individual in history, having run for the nomination 3 times now, having served as VP for two terms.  From being overly friendly with women, to stealing Neil Kinnock's speech in the 80s, to his son's involvement with a Ukrainian gas company... it's all out there.

It's Sanders who has been virtually untouched going through the nomination process.

He doesn't need "excited" voters - he just needs voters.  And lots of people are motivated to vote for him.  They're called "the middle".  People tired of the clown show that is Trump, and want no part of Bernie's permanent revolution.

[Josquius]

Ideal world?
Sanders by a country mile.

Who stands the best chance of winning thus would be my actual real world preference? Harder to say. I have seen research that suggest Sanders and he's no Corbyn. Nonetheless the socialism word in America is a worry.

[Sophie Scholl]

It doesn't need to be real.  Look at all of the garbage they threw at Hillary.  She ran a more energetic campaign in my opinion and still lost to Trump.  At least there were people excited to vote for Hillary.  I don't know a single person who is motivated to vote for Biden out of genuine enthusiasm for his message or what he represents other than "he's not Trump".  Democrats will basically murder their party's future if they hand it to him.  My generation and younger generations are beyond sick of the same establishment candidates force fed to us by a party that is increasingly not responding or even acknowledging our problems, concerns, hopes, and dreams.  It will solidify the Democrats as the "We're not Trump Party" with zero actual messaging or platform beyond that.  There is no "middle" voter anymore.  Everyone has a firm enough position on Trump at this point.  They also have a firm enough understanding of the alternatives.

[FunkMonk]

Politics is weird and creepy.

[Camerus]

Biden for stability and morality.

However, even with this (at this point) ideal outcome, we'd likely have a weak caretaker president assaulted by militants on the left and right.

[alfred russel]

It doesn't need to be real.  Look at all of the garbage they threw at Hillary.  She ran a more energetic campaign in my opinion and still lost to Trump.  At least there were people excited to vote for Hillary.  I don't know a single person who is motivated to vote for Biden out of genuine enthusiasm for his message or what he represents other than "he's not Trump".  Democrats will basically murder their party's future if they hand it to him.  My generation and younger generations are beyond sick of the same establishment candidates force fed to us by a party that is increasingly not responding or even acknowledging our problems, concerns, hopes, and dreams.  It will solidify the Democrats as the "We're not Trump Party" with zero actual messaging or platform beyond that.  There is no "middle" voter anymore.  Everyone has a firm enough position on Trump at this point.  They also have a firm enough understanding of the alternatives.

James Carville recently commented that if there really isn't a middle anymore--no one can be convinced to vote for the other candidate through reasoned arguments--then there is not really a point to democracy and elections and we should just have a revolution.

[Sophie Scholl]

James Carville recently commented that if there really isn't a middle anymore--no one can be convinced to vote for the other candidate through reasoned arguments--then there is not really a point to democracy and elections and we should just have a revolution.

James Carville said something honest and on point.  Consider me legitimately shocked.  I'll give it a few years to see how deeply Republicans will break the system to stay in power, but if things keep trending the way they are, I don't see how things don't come down to bloodshed.  You can't systematically disenfranchise the majority of voters and citizens endlessly without something eventually breaking.

[The Minsky Moment]

Biden's best chance was in 2016. He declined to run. We saw what happened instead. The Republicans have been stockpiling ammo to use against him since he was VP. Who is honestly excited or motivated to vote by him running? He is the definition of "Boring Establishment Candidate".

Establishment, yes, boring, no.  A little more boring in him would be better.

[Solmyr]

There is no "middle" voter anymore.  Everyone has a firm enough position on Trump at this point.  They also have a firm enough understanding of the alternatives.

Indeed, centrism is dying everywhere in the western world. Social and economic changes basically mean it's no longer a viable political position to take without it looking like you are ignoring everyone's problems. I mean, I'm not particularly radical myself, but even I don't think the resurgence of fascism and authoritarianism will be defeated by reasoned arguments and maintaining the status quo. And I'm sure the fascists also don't expect to defeat whatever they perceive as threats through regular political process (except where they can subvert it for their ends).