Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - absolutely. And you have the issue of people taking time off work which is also going to particularly impact the health service and care homes.

From what I understand (and this is all way too soon to tell and could be very, very wrong) the early data in South Africa is that it's about a third as severe as original covid (which was less severe than alpha or delta) and two vaccine doses has about 70% effectiveness against serious illness. That's the severity which is obviously also then layered onto the wildly different severity for different age groups, prior infection which I've not seen anything about or booster shots (they show better effectiveness from my understanding - but I'm not sure how much). So there's loads of factors that play into it but it's too soon to tell.

But as you say the other side is transmission which in London is running at about doubling every 2.5-3 days (similar figures in Denmark), so it's almost doubling three times a week (but the other side of that is the South Africa example where growth rates collapsed as quickly as they rose - as yet unexplained). Until the last few days that didn't actually show up in the overall figures because the proportion of omicron cases to delta was pretty low but it's now, from what I've read, the dominant strain. It's going to find the unvaccinated quicker - it's going to find people with waning immunity and so it's just how those factors on severity all interact.

The only good thing is that we're now at about 40-45% boosted and that would (if take-up was high in each group as it has been for round 1 and 2) be enough to mean basically all the most vulnerable groups have had their booster shot. And, if it's doubling three times a week, for good or bad whatever happens is probably going to be quick. The other thing that does keep me a little bit cautiously hopeful is the cautious hopeful/optimism from experts in South Africa who are ahead of us on this.

Edit: And again it's infuriating that we spent months both stewing on data that vaccine effectiveness waned and not doing enough to get the rest of the world vaccinated. Because that meant that we were creating/embracing a scenario where on a purely selfish level our own protections were weakening without doing anything about it and there were still parts of the world where covid would be in vary wide circulation and free to mutate.

It is the national element of each country going through the pandemic on its own and learning the same lessons time and again that I find so frustrating.

[Grey Fox]

Did you guys know you can test positive for months after initial infection?

My daughter did just that.

[Barrister]

Did you guys know you can test positive for months after initial infection?

My daughter did just that.

Yes.  That's my understanding why after a positive test you need to go through 10/14 days isolation, and not wait for a negative test - because you'll still test positive for months even though you're not infectious.

Sorry to hear about your daughter.

[Sheilbh]

Today in London obviously we'll see how the trend goes


And the general UK numbers now omicron is becoming dominant looks alarming:


On the other hand the Zoe App guy has said the symptoms that are being reported are milder and the "classic triad" of symptoms are no longer as linked/common. But both with that and transmissibility this feels like a game-changing variant (and it's still not clear) in a way that alpha and delta ultimately weren't. I think this is probably a turning point one way or the other for this pandemic

[Sheilbh]

Tip from NHS friend - apparently viral load in vaccinated people who get re-infected with omicron is low, so LFT's aren't as useful as they've been in the past. So if you get sore throat or anything and you've been vaccinated (and omicron's taken off where you are) apparently better to just go straight to PCR.

[Grey Fox]

For the second year in a row, the hockey game I had tickets for is cancelled/without spectators.

Urg.

[HVC]

Montreal game? They did you a favor lol

[Threviel]

Btw, no-one seemed to notice so I'll post again.

https://twitter.com/prof_freedom/status/1470384113140051969

Some dude going over the statistics of Covid deaths with a focus on the results in Sweden.

It's more or less what me and Brainy (IIRC) tried to tell you when it happened. Swedish statistics were good from the beginning and now that other nations are getting their numbers in order the statistics are beginning to make sense.

TLDR: Sweden's response to Covid is not the murder suicide pact it has been portrayed as.

[Grey Fox]

Montreal game? They did you a favor lol

Nah, that's too expensive. AHL Providence vs Laval.

[DGuller]

Btw, no-one seemed to notice so I'll post again.

https://twitter.com/prof_freedom/status/1470384113140051969

Some dude going over the statistics of Covid deaths with a focus on the results in Sweden.

It's more or less what me and Brainy (IIRC) tried to tell you when it happened. Swedish statistics were good from the beginning and now that other nations are getting their numbers in order the statistics are beginning to make sense.

TLDR: Sweden's response to Covid is not the murder suicide pact it has been portrayed as.

Good for you. 

[Sheilbh]

London omicron figures continue to be incredible - it's now about 80% of cases. Chart of London cases:


For context it took delta about a month to become the dominant strand. From the sequencing it looks like omicron became the dominant strain on Tuesday - so it took 8 days from the first observed omicron cases.

Edit: And interesting from Francois Balloux - the key is still how little we know but I think given the asymmetry of risks it is probably better to take quite stringent measures now. On the one hand lots of deaths. On the other I think if we took strict measures and omicron didn't turn out to be that big a deal, then I don't see how we'd lock down again and I'd worry about the credibility of institutions in the face of the rest of this pandemic or the next one - which is not nothing, but has to be outweighed by risk to life. It won't in the UK because the PM is too politically weak to impose measures beyond what we already have:

Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois
The Omicron variant is spreading very fast globally. It is already dominant in London, but likely at high frequency in many other places in the world that do not have a viral surveillance infrastructure comparable to that of the UK.
1/
The very large number of cases anticipated globally is expected to put further stress on healthcare systems. The extent of the problem will largely depend - besides case numbers - on the proportion of people who will require hospitalisation upon infection.
2/
So far, the only useful data comes from South Africa. The major outbreak in Gauteng province saw an exceptionally fast rise in case numbers, and is now declining. Case numbers in other SA provinces may also be close to peaking.
3/
The hospitalisation rate per Omicron case may be as low as ~10% of that observed during the earlier Delta wave.
4/
The mortality rate upon hospitalisation is down 2/3 relative to previous waves throughout age groups (estimated over a 25-day window post-admission during different waves).
5/
Average length of stay in hospital, which is expected to be a good proxy for disease severity is also down significantly throughout age groups, relative to previous waves.
6/
2h
Based on those figures, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of the Omicron wave in South Africa might be up to ~30x lower than those recorded during previous waves (i.e. ~0.1 hospitalisation x ~0.33 death).
7/
Vaccination rates remain fairly low in SA (~26%), but a large proportion of the population is believed to have been previously exposed to the virus. SA's population median age is relatively low (27.6 years), but obesity levels are comparable to the UK (~28%).
8/
The reduced CFR could be due to any mix of Omicron being intrinsically milder and/or the population in SA having acquired sufficient immunisation due to prior infection and vaccination.
9/
This question of what is driving the lower CFR of the Omicron wave in SA is not just academic as an answer to it may allow predicting the likely impact in terms of morbidity and mortality of the spread of Omicron in other places.
10/
If Omicron were intrinsically milder, its impact would be expected to be lower anywhere, irrespective of population age, and immunisation rates from prior infection and vaccination.
11/
Conversely, if the relative mildness of the SA Omicron wave were only due to host population factors, this may bode well for other LMICs with similar epidemiological characteristics to SA, but not necessarily to other countries.
12/
There is no useful evidence to answer that question at this stage. The very preliminary data on Omicron hospitalisation rates from Denmark and the UK is not informative. Though, we shall know very soon ...
13/

[Legbiter]

Going to Norway in a few days. Here we're about 2 weeks behind the the rest of Scandinavia. Omnicron will begin replacing delta in 2-3 weeks. The next 3 months will suck.

[viper37]

TLDR: Sweden's response to Covid is not the murder suicide pact it has been portrayed as.

what about the proportion of people stuck with long covid?

[jimmy olsen]

London omicron figures continue to be incredible - it's now about 80% of cases. Chart of London cases:


For context it took delta about a month to become the dominant strand. From the sequencing it looks like omicron became the dominant strain on Tuesday - so it took 8 days from the first observed omicron cases.

Even if Omicron is relatively mild, as long as they're taking up so much space in the hospital, it's a big problem, and all those Delta cases are in big trouble.

[Sheilbh]

Even if Omicron is relatively mild, as long as they're taking up so much space in the hospital, it's a big problem, and all those Delta cases are in big trouble.

Those are case numbers not admissions.

Admissions are rising in London and obviously there's a lag - but there is a bit of a divergence with delta or alpha in there's a far higher number of people admitted for other reasons who are testing positive when they arrive. So about half of admisions at the minute are basically incidental covid admiissions:


In terms of space they seem to be in hospital for a far shorter length of time. But the first wave showed how very quickly you can get from these levels to very high ones.