Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Had anyone else come across people who have had two doses of the vaccine but won't get a booster shot? I'm seeing it a bit and think it's the most incomprehensible covid opinion I've seen

[Richard Hakluyt]

Covid fatigue I guess.

[DGuller]

Had anyone else come across people who have had two doses of the vaccine but won't get a booster shot? I'm seeing it a bit and think it's the most incomprehensible covid opinion I've seen

My dad was endlessly debating it, probably because he felt like overthinking it.  Eventually my sister just scheduled his booster appointment herself.

[alfred russel]

Had anyone else come across people who have had two doses of the vaccine but won't get a booster shot? I'm seeing it a bit and think it's the most incomprehensible covid opinion I've seen

I'm very grudgingly going to get a booster shot. I was knocked on my ass for a day after getting the second vaccine dose. It sounds like I will by the booster shot too. I have no interest in getting a flu vaccine because it does the same, but if I got that you are talking about 3 days in a year jacked up from vaccines.

[Grey Fox]

Had anyone else come across people who have had two doses of the vaccine but won't get a booster shot? I'm seeing it a bit and think it's the most incomprehensible covid opinion I've seen

I have a friend like that. I did not ask the logic behind is reasoning. He's not interested into more vaccines, I guess.

[Sheilbh]

Is it just me not paying enough attention or the anti-reality people have switched from "virus doesn't exist / it's just a flu" to "we should acquire herd immunity in a natural way and Omicron is great for that"?

I don't know you still see the anti-reality stuff "have you noticed OMICRON is an anagram of MORONIC" (from an actual email sent to a journalist today about why covid is a hoax)

The thing with omicron is it feels like it might be impossible to stop. In London it's doubling every 2.5 days which is crazily rapid compared to every other wave when we were worrying about cases doubling, say, every seven days. I saw the CDC saying that it's in the US and they think it's about 15% of cases in places like New York and New Jersey. The reason that struck me is because I remember last week when it was 15% of cases in London - yesterday it was the dominant strain and was 40% of cases just 2 days ago (the tapering in this chart is due to incomplete data not necessarily any reduction in rate):


I think Denmark is the most omicron-affected country in Europe right now and you can just see what it looks like (this includes the UK for comparison plus Denmark and South Africa) - but we're at the point where we need to start making the Y axis bigger:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~DNK~ZAF

There's an interesting thing from Hong Kong researchers that omicron infects and multiplies in the bronchus about 70 times faster than original covid or delta, but about 10 times less in the lungs. I know that where it is replicating doesn't necessarily mean anything in terms of severity but I wonder if that's part of why it does seem to be less severe.

And that is the other side of this - touch wood and it's early days - but so far the data on hospitalisations and deaths coming out of South Africa is still broadly positive. It's definitely different from the delta wave - but I'm not sure how much of that is just it is less severe (which seems to be part of it) and how much is protection from previous infections or vaccines. But given the speed it's growing I'm not sure this won't just tear through everone in the next month or so.

Given all that I think there's actually probably an argument to tell people to stop socialising now (even stricter than Scotland's new measures) with the aim of seeing family/loved ones at Christmas but it should be a "see the immediate family at Christmas" and not a summon the clan Christmas. But I suspect if the severity is significantly lower we might instead move to a "don't isolate unless you feel unwell even if you have tested positive" just because at the current pace a lot of people are going to get this soon.

[DGuller]

Unfortunately, one way that propaganda works is by increasing uncertainty.  Maybe someone was pretty certain when vaccines were first out that they wanted them, but then months of exposure to propaganda made it seem like a more complicated issue than it is. 

Once the issue appears complicated, decisiveness can give way to inertia and apathy.  You don't have to be swayed enough to be opposed to vaccines, you just have to accept the premise that it's a complicated question with many valid conclusions.

[Barrister]

Given all that I think there's actually probably an argument to tell people to stop socialising now (even stricter than Scotland's new measures) with the aim of seeing family/loved ones at Christmas but it should be a "see the immediate family at Christmas" and not a summon the clan Christmas. But I suspect if the severity is significantly lower we might instead move to a "don't isolate unless you feel unwell even if you have tested positive" just because at the current pace a lot of people are going to get this soon.

So there was supposed to be an announcement yesterday afternoon which was broadly hinted to include a slight relaxation of isolation rules around Christmas.  The press conference though was cancelled in favour of a First Ministers meeting about Omicron (so: PM Trudeau and all the Premiers).

Omicron is already spreading locally in Canada and Alberta.  Our hospitalization rates from the Delta wave are finally down - still at about 100% normal ICU capacity mind you, but with the emergency or "surge" capacity we're doing okay.

But I feel like we probably need to be increasing restrictions right now, but I'm afraid we're going to do the opposite.  It's what our government has been doing throughout after all - taking steps  only after the problem has nearly gotten out of control, rather than being pro-active about anything.

[viper37]

Had anyone else come across people who have had two doses of the vaccine but won't get a booster shot? I'm seeing it a bit and think it's the most incomprehensible covid opinion I've seen

I haven't seen it yet, but it is not incomprehensible.  Some people were hit very hard with 2nd dose, to the point where they had to miss work, and they were already wondering if it was worth the risk, for those in low risk areas, to take the 3rd shot and be that sick.  Some people also had severe secondary effects, like my friend who had a stroke following his 2nd Pfizer shot and lost sight in his right eye.  Don't think he's gonna get the 3rd one...

I myself did wonder a lot, and eventually asked my doc if it was worth it.  I wouldn't rate it as totally irrational.

[Josquius]

Had anyone else come across people who have had two doses of the vaccine but won't get a booster shot? I'm seeing it a bit and think it's the most incomprehensible covid opinion I've seen

Time of year imo. Too much going on without dealing with that. This is me.

Could also be some skepticism about the necessity, there being no talk of any restrictions on people without boosters won't help either.

[Barrister]

But I feel like we probably need to be increasing restrictions right now, but I'm afraid we're going to do the opposite.  It's what our government has been doing throughout after all - taking steps  only after the problem has nearly gotten out of control, rather than being pro-active about anything.

Yup.  Restrictions eased for gatherings at private homes.

Previous restriction was up to 10 adults from only 2 households, and everyone must be vaccinated.  Now it's up to 10 adults from any number of households, no vaccine requirement.  Government says no one was following the old rule anyways

[HVC]

But I feel like we probably need to be increasing restrictions right now, but I'm afraid we're going to do the opposite.  It's what our government has been doing throughout after all - taking steps  only after the problem has nearly gotten out of control, rather than being pro-active about anything.

Yup.  Restrictions eased for gatherings at private homes.

Previous restriction was up to 10 adults from only 2 households, and everyone must be vaccinated.  Now it's up to 10 adults from any number of households, no vaccine requirement.  Government says no one was following the old rule anyways

Sweet, i can go drink and drive in Alberta. If people don't follow the rules they change the rules!

[DGuller]

If Omicron doesn't prove to be nature's vaccine against all Covid variants, then this is very alarming: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/us/cornell-university-covid-cases/index.html.

[Admiral Yi]

If Omicron doesn't prove to be nature's vaccine against all Covid variants, then this is very alarming: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/us/cornell-university-covid-cases/index.html.

I heard something similar on NPR t'other day.  46 cases of Omgricon, most of them fully vaccinated.

I'm wondering if I had it.  Coughing, runny nose.

[Barrister]

If Omicron doesn't prove to be nature's vaccine against all Covid variants, then this is very alarming: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/14/us/cornell-university-covid-cases/index.html.

I heard something similar on NPR t'other day.  46 cases of Omgricon, most of them fully vaccinated.

I'm wondering if I had it.  Coughing, runny nose.

Unlikely so far.  It's started spreading more widely in NY/NJ, but it's extremely early days in the rest of north america (unless you had recent contact with someone from South Africa recently).