Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Omicron in London


UK does about 1-1.5 million tests a day but it looks like at the pace it's increasing omicron case numbers will get so high that testing system will fall over.

I think I saw some projections that on current pace omicron is basically likely to have infected everyone in Denmark by the end of the year (they're a little ahead of the UK) and everyone in the UK by the end of January. Having said all of that growth rates in South Africa fell incredibly quickly too so it's now more or less plateauing.

But if it's as transmissible as it seems and in the wild it feels like the only real purpose of any social distancing measures/lockdowns is just to buy enough time to get get everyone boosted or vaccinated for the first time.

Interesting thread from expert in South Africa (via John Burn-Murdoch):

Shabir Madhi
@ShabirMadh
Reflecting on SA experience  with Omricon thus far in Gauteng - the epicentre in SA. 1. Rate of increase per capita much quicker than any of previous three waves. Strongly suggestive of more transmissible than even delta. 2. Positivity rate 30-40% in some settings.
3. Three weeks into resurgence, many adults and children testing  SARS-CoV-2 pos in hospital , but COVID hospitalisation remains low relative to community case rate. High % (30%) women in labour coincidentally testing positive. Also,most children testing pos are coincidental Ix.
4. Death rate very low compared to period  of same case rate in previous waves. Trend over next week will be informative, but optimistic unlikely to surge. 5. Study in SA and elsewhere confirm omicron 5 fold more antibody evasive than beta., hence many breakthrough and re-Ix.
6. Attenuation of clinical course of illness. Likely explanation is the 73% of population in Gauteng with previous infection and/or vaccine induced underpinning T cell immunity, since omicron largely antibody evasive. Hospitalisation for severe Covid mainly in unvacccinated
7. Unfortunate still delay rollout of 3rd Pfizer dose to older than 60yrs and immuncompromised. Little value doing so after the wave has already peaked probably in next 2 weeks. Likewise no 2nd dose for ALL single dose JJ recipients inexcusable with 15 million vaccines in depot.
8. Health facilities under pressure due to infections in staff, needing to go into isolation for 10'days- despite the isolation (and quarantine) recommendations being outdated and probably obsolete in context of underpinning immunity and widespread infection.
9. IF downturn in infection rate and no massive surge in hospitalisation and death in the next 2-3 weeks, may well mark turning point in pandemic, particularly since SA not boosting to prevent infection and mild illness like HIC are doing (at cost exacerbating vaccine inequity)
10. Gvt response correctly remains measured by not increasing restrictions and not panicking with increase in cases, but seem to rather focussing on COVID ( excluding coincidental Ix) hospitalisation and health facility capacity. 11. Lastly,  vaccine coverage still lagging.

[mongers]

On the bus home yesterday evening, a younger woman had a running nose/cold and looked unwell, so she ...

Had no mask on.
Was wiping mucus off her nose with her fingers and hands.
With said hand was touching the guard rails, seats and would presumably touch other surfaces as she left.

Could have been just a cold or had she recklessly infected some people on the bus with the omicron variant? 

Professor Tim Spector, who helped found the Zoe symptom-tracking app, has said Covid cases in London are accelerating more than was seen during the very first wave of the virus.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the "majority of symptoms" of the Omicron variant are like a common cold, including headaches, a sore throat, runny nose, fatigue and sneezing.

He said: "In London, where Covid is increasing rapidly, it's far more likely to be Covid than it is to be a cold.

"If we look at our regional charts we see London accelerating more than we've seen it since the very first wave and this now means that Omicron is the predominant variant already."

Covid more likely than a cold in hard-hit London - Zoe app founder:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59664383

[Tamas]

Professor Tim Spector, who helped found the Zoe symptom-tracking app, has said Covid cases in London are accelerating more than was seen during the very first wave of the virus.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the "majority of symptoms" of the Omicron variant are like a common cold, including headaches, a sore throat, runny nose, fatigue and sneezing.

He said: "In London, where Covid is increasing rapidly, it's far more likely to be Covid than it is to be a cold.

"If we look at our regional charts we see London accelerating more than we've seen it since the very first wave and this now means that Omicron is the predominant variant already."


Covid more likely than a cold in hard-hit London - Zoe app founder:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59664383

I was a bit under the weather on Monday, a day after my booster shot, it seem to have improved yesterday morning but since the evening I have been having a bit of a sore throat, some cough and a runny nose. But even before the pandemic I had this very regularly since I have been on the island. The estate agent inspecting our home on Monday wore a mask and I made sure to keep a window open during and after the visit so I can't rightly blame her even though I'd like to.

[alfred russel]

One sensible measure to speed up vaccines/rush the boosters: the Chief Medical Officers have got rid of the 15 minute wait after the jab for people who've had Pfizer. Apparently in all the Pfizer doses distributed in the UK there's only been 17 anaphylactic reactions in the observations period (none fatal) but that period reduce throughput by about 25%. I think it's still in place for Moderna because there's a higher risk but it's less used, so it should allow for about 25% more doses a day which is good.

A while back there was the argument whether i was reckless to skip the 15 minute wait period after getting the pfizer vaccine. Seems the chief medical officers have come around to my perspective.

[The Brain]

I'm all for skipping unnecessary things, but which mechanism made the 15 min wait after the jab reduce throughput?

[Zanza]

Maybe the post-vaccination waiting area was not separated in Britain? Otherwise the throughput cannot be dependent on a waiting area as the last step of the process...

[garbon]

Maybe the post-vaccination waiting area was not separated in Britain? Otherwise the throughput cannot be dependent on a waiting area as the last step of the process...

That would be my guess. After waiting areas were always right near and had limited capacity.

[garbon]

Also won't need staff dedicated to monitoring waiting area.

[Sheilbh]

Also won't need staff dedicated to monitoring waiting area.

Yeah - I assume it's capacity and staffing. It wasn't necessary for my AZ doses but when I got the Pfizer booster there was a separate observation area with staff milling about (cleaning seats, directing people etc). But if that was full then obviously they can't jab anyone else.

[The Brain]

Where I got my shots the waiting area always had capacity (would have been a weird efficiency choice not to have capacity), and I doubt that the person monitoring was trained to give shots (would have been a waste). For any major facility I doubt the 15 min waiting time reduced throughput.

[DGuller]

Where I got my shots the waiting area always had capacity (would have been a weird efficiency choice not to have capacity), and I doubt that the person monitoring was trained to give shots (would have been a waste). For any major facility I doubt the 15 min waiting time reduced throughput.

I'm sure you always had space, but maybe appointments were limited in order to ensure that you always had space.  I took all my shots in a pharmacy, and there were always only a couple of folding chairs there, and you couldn't make space for more without encroaching on the ability of customers to buy shampoo and shit.

[The Brain]

Where I got my shots the waiting area always had capacity (would have been a weird efficiency choice not to have capacity), and I doubt that the person monitoring was trained to give shots (would have been a waste). For any major facility I doubt the 15 min waiting time reduced throughput.

I'm sure you always had space, but maybe appointments were limited in order to ensure that you always had space.  I took all my shots in a pharmacy, and there were always only a couple of folding chairs there, and you couldn't make space for more without encroaching on the ability of customers to buy shampoo and shit.

Jabbers were jabbing at full speed, appointments were not made based on waiting area capacity but on jabbing capacity. And yes, bigger is better, having people jabbed in a pharmacy sounds horribly inefficient.

[Sheilbh]

I'm sure you always had space, but maybe appointments were limited in order to ensure that you always had space.  I took all my shots in a pharmacy, and there were always only a couple of folding chairs there, and you couldn't make space for more without encroaching on the ability of customers to buy shampoo and shit.

Yeah it varies - I mean I had one and two either in one of the big marquees or in the hospital atrium where there's a lot of space. But they were AZ so there was no observation period or space needed for that (so the entire tent was waiting/jabs not waiting/jabs/observation).

My booster was in a large GP surgery and space was definitely an issue - now you could put up some dividers and use that area for jabbing.

[Tamas]

Is it just me not paying enough attention or the anti-reality people have switched from "virus doesn't exist / it's just a flu" to "we should acquire herd immunity in a natural way and Omicron is great for that"?

It's nice to see how flexibly they can move the goalposts around in reaction to the situation on the ground, always reaching and supporting the same two conclusions:
- they are ok to do nothing
- they are ok to be selfish bloody bastards and let their neighbours die out of lazyness

[Grey Fox]

My vaccines were in conference hall. Around here, doctors aren't the ones giving vaccines.