Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Larch]

American golfer Jon Rahm

Jon Rahm Rodríguez (born 10 November 1994) is a Spanish professional golfer.

[DGuller]

I don't get this case, though.  Athletes know that Covid can sabotage their performance simply due to rules around Covid diagnosis.  Even if you're confident that you're young and Covid will be no threat to you, you can still be forced to sit out the competition at the worst possible time due to it.  I suspect that a number of F1 driver got Covid this winter, in the off-season, precisely so that it wouldn't strike them during the season and force them to miss a couple of races.

[grumbler]

American golfer Jon Rahm

Jon Rahm Rodríguez (born 10 November 1994) is a Spanish professional golfer.

You are right.  I was fooled by the fact that he went to Arizona State and lives in Phoenix.  He's just been living in the US since he entered college, though.

[alfred russel]

So I've gotten shit for saying there is a significant component of media driven panic in the covid response, but maybe it is worth also looking at how much of that is driven by biases from entities like the CDC?

The CDC puts out projections here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us-cases-previous.html

The last projection for a time period now concluded was on May 12 -- they were projecting cases in the US through June 5. The actual 7 day average at that point was 98,861. That is within the 2.5% lower band of their model which was 83,780 but dramatically below their midpoint and below all 23 separate model projections they ran.

Okay so they were at the low end. Shit happens.

It turns out they seem to be between the 2.5% and 25% lower bands in every projection they've put out since April 21. In the April 21 projection, they were actually below the 2.5% lower band!

I'm giving up back checking every set of projections, but decided, "okay when cases spiked at their all time max, how did the CDC do"? The US hit its all time peak in cases on January 9. The new weekly cases at that point was 1,777,615. The projection ending in that period was December 17. Unfortunately the data downloads at that point are in deaths rather than cases, but eyeballing the chart it looks like that may be just below the projection they had.

[Valmy]

So I've gotten shit for saying there is a significant component of media driven panic in the covid response, but maybe it is worth also looking at how much of that is driven by biases from entities like the CDC?

Oh I absolutely believe this is true but it is always true in every emergency type situation. People's biases and interests will always play a big role, especially when there is stress or fear involved.

It is why you need to look around a bit to get good information. I think that is why people settled on "excess deaths" because trying to get good estimates on who died of COVID and who didn't was complicated with some people over-reporting and others under-reporting based on their biases and pressures.

[viper37]

So I've gotten shit for saying there is a significant component of media driven panic in the covid response, but maybe it is worth also looking at how much of that is driven by biases from entities like the CDC?

Oh I absolutely believe this is true but it is always true in every emergency type situation. People's biases and interests will always play a big role, especially when there is stress or fear involved.

It is why you need to look around a bit to get good information. I think that is why people settled on "excess deaths" because trying to get good estimates on who died of COVID and who didn't was complicated with some people over-reporting and others under-reporting based on their biases and pressures.

even excess death only tell part of the story.  With people confined and wearing masks, we had much less flu than earlier years and in Quebec, no casualties from the flu.  Much less road accidents since people were mostly confined.  It gets stricky to use global numbers. 

I guess we'll have to wait for more precise data in a year or two and some staticians/researchers going through these to identify excess deaths by category to get a very clear portrait.  But by then, no one listen for the next pandemic.

[DGuller]

Much less road accidents since people were mostly confined.  It gets stricky to use global numbers. 

That seems like a reasonable assumption, but it may turn out to be false.  While there were definitely less cars on the road, they were killing more people in 2020 compared to 2019, accordingly to preliminary US data.  Going by my personal experience, it does seem like people are driving crazier now than before Covid (and obviously during the early lockdown Covid days it was Wild West, with virtually no speed enforcement).

[alfred russel]

Much less road accidents since people were mostly confined.  It gets stricky to use global numbers. 

That seems like a reasonable assumption, but it may turn out to be false.  While there were definitely less cars on the road, they were killing more people in 2020 compared to 2019, accordingly to preliminary US data.  Going by my personal experience, it does seem like people are driving crazier now than before Covid (and obviously during the early lockdown Covid days it was Wild West, with virtually no speed enforcement).

In the US at least, homicides were way up, deaths on the road were up despite significantly fewer miles driven, and we had a group of morons take over the capital. I don't know if there are statistics on this but there seems to have been an increased amount of social unrest and protests with violence.

[Sheilbh]

Vaccine bookings for the over 25s opened yesterday and I'm the first 24 hours the rate is about 45k per hour or 1 million in the first day.

There were fears that younger people would be less likely to get the vaccine because they are less personal benefit from it. Fortunately it seems that fear hasn't borne out.

[Zanza]

Germany opened for everybody now and trying to get an appointment is utter carnage. I guess having two things - vaccines and opening up - in extreme demand in an election year is just too tempting for our politicians.

[viper37]

Much less road accidents since people were mostly confined.  It gets stricky to use global numbers. 

That seems like a reasonable assumption, but it may turn out to be false.  While there were definitely less cars on the road, they were killing more people in 2020 compared to 2019, accordingly to preliminary US data.  Going by my personal experience, it does seem like people are driving crazier now than before Covid (and obviously during the early lockdown Covid days it was Wild West, with virtually no speed enforcement).

Well, I'm looking for Quebec here:

Bilan routier 2020

En 2020, le nombre de personnes accidentées sur la route a connu une baisse importante comparativement à 2019.

Voici les grandes lignes de ce bilan :

    340 personnes sont décédées sur nos routes, soit 9 de plus qu'en 2019; il s'agit toutefois d'une baisse de 2,2 % par rapport à la moyenne de 2015 à 2019. Le nombre de décès :
        chez les 15 à 24 ans a diminué de 7,0 % par rapport à 2019
        chez les 75 ans ou plus a diminué de 12,0 % par rapport à 2019
        chez les motocyclistes a augmenté de 48,9 % par rapport à 2019
        chez les piétons a diminué de 26,1 % par rapport à 2019
        chez les cyclistes a augmenté de 75,0 % par rapport à 2019
    1 165 personnes ont été blessées gravement, soit 165 de moins qu'en 2019; il s'agit d'une baisse de 20,3 % par rapport à la moyenne de 2015 à 2019
    22 966 personnes ont été blessées légèrement, soit 10 461 de moins qu'en 2019; il s'agit d'une baisse de 33,9 % par rapport à la moyenne de 2015 à 2019

In 2020, the number of accidented people on roads has seen a large drop compared to 2019.

- 340 people died on our roads, 9 more than in 2019, but 2,2% less than the 2015-2019 average. The number of death:
- dropped by 7% in the 15-24yo group compared to 2019
- dropped by 12% for the 75yo+...
- increased by 48.9% on motorcyclists from 2019
- dropped by 26.1% for pedestrians
- Increased 75% for cyclists from 2019

1 165 people were seriously injured, 165 less than in 2019; a drop of 20,3% from the 2015-2019 average.
22 966 people were lightly wounded, 10 4611 less than in 2019; a drop of 33.9% from the 2015-2019 average.



So I was partly wrong, there were a few more deaths from 2019, less from the previous 5 years average, but there was a lot less woundeds, especially lightly woundeds.

Of note, the only increase in deaths happened for cyclists and motorcyclists, which happens to coincide with the "no restriction" summer after the spring confinement.

[alfred russel]

Of course number of cases is going to rise with the easing of lockdown (and the spread of the India variant), that number is bound to absolutely skyrocket once all restrictions are lifted, what I want to know and I think what everyone should care about is how many of those cases end up in hospital.

Maybe but plenty of places have eased or removed restrictions and cases have kept falling.

It is worth keeping in mind that the WHO advises against lockdowns except as a last resort to keep medical systems from being overwhelmed.

[Tamas]

Of course number of cases is going to rise with the easing of lockdown (and the spread of the India variant), that number is bound to absolutely skyrocket once all restrictions are lifted, what I want to know and I think what everyone should care about is how many of those cases end up in hospital.

Maybe but plenty of places have eased or removed restrictions and cases have kept falling.

It is worth keeping in mind that the WHO advises against lockdowns except as a last resort to keep medical systems from being overwhelmed.

Are you seriously going to go ahead and use the currently very-thoroughly vaccinated statistics to try and prove lockdowns were never necessary?

Oh wait, of course you will, it's you. Carry on.

[alfred russel]

I couldn't watch the whole thing because it is so full of cringe, but Florida just held a 20k person concert, the governor showed up, and got greeted like a rock star. Addressed the crowd saying that they are choosing "Freedom over Fauci-ism."

If we end up with De Santis elected president in 2024 with republicans in charge of both houses of congress, the covid response is going to be reason #1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cFO9qd1hwc

Tamas: cases in Florida are currently at 1/100k per the new york times and the lowest in the country - maybe there will be a big spike in a couple weeks but I doubt it. Things have been getting back to normal and cases have kept falling.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/florida-covid-cases.html

[alfred russel]

Are you seriously going to go ahead and use the currently very-thoroughly vaccinated statistics to try and prove lockdowns were never necessary?

Oh wait, of course you will, it's you. Carry on.

Tamas, the WHO was opposed to general lockdowns prior to mass vaccination.

I was disagreeing with your comment that cases are "bound to absolutely skyrocket once all restrictions are lifted" which hasn't been seen in some of the places that have lifted restrictions.