Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Infections have been flat in Spain for a few days, with some regions (like the Basque Country) already starting to creep up. Easter holidays are around the corner, and even though there are going to be more restrictions in place than during Christmas, the effect is probably going to be rather negative. At least we are at 10% of total population vaccinated with at least 1 shot, which includes everybody in care homes and nearly all over 80s, so the fatality rate of a fourth wave should be significantly lower.

It's still really striking that they're staying flat in Spain because they do seem to be creeping up in the rest of Europe. I don't know why - but it's very good news.

[Barrister]

Cases in Alberta have been creeping upwards.  It may be linked to the UK variant - it's now well established in the community and comprised about 10% of active cases right now.

Or it may be connected to the slight re-opening we've have seen.

[celedhring]

Infections have been flat in Spain for a few days, with some regions (like the Basque Country) already starting to creep up. Easter holidays are around the corner, and even though there are going to be more restrictions in place than during Christmas, the effect is probably going to be rather negative. At least we are at 10% of total population vaccinated with at least 1 shot, which includes everybody in care homes and nearly all over 80s, so the fatality rate of a fourth wave should be significantly lower.

Honestly we haven't done anything different than last autumn in regards of the approach to restrictions and when to re-open. Right now the country is fairly open (it varies by region), with a curfew in place and some restrictions on restaurants and other businesses, plus travel restrictions.

I still expect we'll get one last big bump in the spring - I went to Barcelona yesterday and the city looked far bustlier and livelier than in January or February - but hopefully it doesn't carry that much of a toll this time.

[celedhring]

Also, it looks like that after the EMA recommendation we're going to restart the AZ shots.

[Sheilbh]

Also, it looks like that after the EMA recommendation we're going to restart the AZ shots.

My fear is that the suspension will have hurt trust more than the EMA press conference/recommendation. The polls in France were only 20% of people trust the AZ vaccine and in Italy where it's down to 29% seem like pretty big issues - I think it'll be a challenge for it to be a meaningful part of the roll-out with numbers like that. There needs to be some trust building.

Relatedly - and this may just be the people I follow on social media - but the Italian press particularly seems to be crazily irresponsible in this. I saw yesterday a big splash story on an elderly person dying on the same day they got the second dose of Pfizer - no evidence or suggestion of a connection but a big splash headline. Plus the "AstraZeneca, fear across Europe" headline.

[crazy canuck]

Also, it looks like that after the EMA recommendation we're going to restart the AZ shots.

My fear is that the suspension will have hurt trust more than the EMA press conference/recommendation. The polls in France were only 20% of people trust the AZ vaccine and in Italy where it's down to 29% seem like pretty big issues - I think it'll be a challenge for it to be a meaningful part of the roll-out with numbers like that. There needs to be some trust building.

Relatedly - and this may just be the people I follow on social media - but the Italian press particularly seems to be crazily irresponsible in this. I saw yesterday a big splash story on an elderly person dying on the same day they got the second dose of Pfizer - no evidence or suggestion of a connection but a big splash headline. Plus the "AstraZeneca, fear across Europe" headline.

Yeah, it was a really dumb move.  There was no evidence that AZ was harmful and that move really undermined confidence.  I realize the decision makers were well intentioned in applying a cautionary approach to make sure there was no evidence of a link, but it is Ivory Tower thinking at its worst to not realize that most people will not be assured.

[Barrister]

Apparently the US is going to "loan" 1.5 million doses of the AZ vaccine to Canada, and 2.5 million to Mexico.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/reuters-us-canada-mexico-vaccine-1.5954871

This seems to be driven by the fact that the US hasn't approved the vaccine yet, but AZ has been manufacturing it.  These vaccine doses are likely getting close to expiry so they're being sent so that they can actually get used.  Canada and Mexico are supposed to repay the US with vaccine doses later in the year in exchange.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently the US is going to "loan" 1.5 million doses of the AZ vaccine to Canada, and 2.5 million to Mexico.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/reuters-us-canada-mexico-vaccine-1.5954871

This seems to be driven by the fact that the US hasn't approved the vaccine yet, but AZ has been manufacturing it.  These vaccine doses are likely getting close to expiry so they're being sent so that they can actually get used.  Canada and Mexico are supposed to repay the US with vaccine doses later in the year in exchange.

Weird - I am baffled by the American approach on this because they've got somewhere between 30-60 million AZ doses manufactured which aren't approved for use in the US. From what I understand the US clinical trials don't even finish until April so by the time it's approved they'll probably have already finished vaccinating everyone.

It seems like it'd be the easiest PR win to release doses - especially to other countries in the Americas - which will have zero impact on their own vaccination program.

[PDH]

Supply sergeant (from M*A*S*H) mentality:  "Sure I have 3 of these I don't need, but if I give you 1 then I only have 2 left."

[crazy canuck]

Apparently the US is going to "loan" 1.5 million doses of the AZ vaccine to Canada, and 2.5 million to Mexico.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/reuters-us-canada-mexico-vaccine-1.5954871

This seems to be driven by the fact that the US hasn't approved the vaccine yet, but AZ has been manufacturing it.  These vaccine doses are likely getting close to expiry so they're being sent so that they can actually get used.  Canada and Mexico are supposed to repay the US with vaccine doses later in the year in exchange.

Weird - I am baffled by the American approach on this because they've got somewhere between 30-60 million AZ doses manufactured which aren't approved for use in the US. From what I understand the US clinical trials don't even finish until April so by the time it's approved they'll probably have already finished vaccinating everyone.

It seems like it'd be the easiest PR win to release doses - especially to other countries in the Americas - which will have zero impact on their own vaccination program.

Not the way Americans are wired.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It seems that the hitch in the UK vaccination program is a result of reduced deliveries from India. India is a massive producer of pharmaceuticals, especially things like generics and vaccines. Their production of vaccine is starting to fall due to shortages of various raw materials and components normally supplied by the USA : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-55571793

[crazy canuck]

It seems that the hitch in the UK vaccination program is a result of reduced deliveries from India. India is a massive producer of pharmaceuticals, especially things like generics and vaccines. Their production of vaccine is starting to fall due to shortages of various raw materials and components normally supplied by the USA : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-55571793

Globalization is great, until it isn't.  This is the way the USA is always going to be, and the rest of us need to make our plans accordingly.

[The Larch]

It seems that the hitch in the UK vaccination program is a result of reduced deliveries from India. India is a massive producer of pharmaceuticals, especially things like generics and vaccines. Their production of vaccine is starting to fall due to shortages of various raw materials and components normally supplied by the USA : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-55571793

Globalization is great, until it isn't.

It was great (for consumers) in a "business as usual" kind of scenario, but its limits and weaknesses have come to light in a crisis scenario such as this one. It serves us well to remember this for when the pandemic goes away.

[Sheilbh]

It was great (for consumers) in a "business as usual" kind of scenario, but its limits and weaknesses have come to light in a crisis scenario such as this one. It serves us well to remember this for when the pandemic goes away.

Totally agree. I think that goes beyond pandemic stuff and PPE/gene sequencing/vaccine manufacturing capacity. It's not that we necessarily need to on-shore everything but we can't rely on one country to produce everything that is then used by the rest of the worl - so China for PPE, the US for large amounts of raw materials and inputs for vaccine manufacturing. I remember reading a piece a while ago about how dependent the world is on Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturers.

It might make sense in normal times because there's an economic benefit from economies of scale etc, but it's building in potentially massive risks in the event of a crisis.

[crazy canuck]

It seems that the hitch in the UK vaccination program is a result of reduced deliveries from India. India is a massive producer of pharmaceuticals, especially things like generics and vaccines. Their production of vaccine is starting to fall due to shortages of various raw materials and components normally supplied by the USA : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-55571793

Globalization is great, until it isn't.

It was great (for consumers) in a "business as usual" kind of scenario, but its limits and weaknesses have come to light in a crisis scenario such as this one. It serves us well to remember this for when the pandemic goes away.

I agree, and particularly when climate change is going to bring more disasters.