Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[alfred russel]

Can't we all just agree that although lots of people made mistakes, the biggest fool was Wilbur Ross: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1222863896882679808

That was really fucking stupid, but somehow seems less consequential than the fact I told I could not leave my home for nonessential reasons and if I did could face up to a year in jail, and then weeks later was able to go to the gym and indoor bars even though cases were higher (and federal hiking trails in North Georgia remaining closed).

[Tamas]

I have just realised the "meetings of 6 allowed outdoors including private gardens" easing is going into effect just before the 4-day Easter holiday.  we WILL manage to sneak one more peak up before vaccination concludes. Great.

[Sheilbh]

I have just realised the "meetings of 6 allowed outdoors including private gardens" easing is going into effect just before the 4-day Easter holiday.  we WILL manage to sneak one more peak up before vaccination concludes. Great.

It should not include private gardens - I'm fine with parks/beer gardens etc. In fact I cannot wait for beer gardens to re-open

Seems like the next two weeks are going to have very high roll-out, but new letter to the NHS about a significant reduction in supply starting 29 March which they expect to last for four weeks. So it feels like April will probably be mainly giving out second doses.

Edit: Incidentally just watching today's press conference and I am a huge fan of Deputy Chief Medical Office Jonathan van Tam's respect for defensive midfielders: "A bit like a football game where strikers who score wonder goals that make the headlines, hard yards are done by defenders and defensive midfielders tracking back for 90 minutes of the game watching everybody's back"

[Josquius]

I do wonder whether this is intentional to dip a toe in the water of testing how effective the vaccination programme is.

[garbon]

And lockdown wasn't even considered as an option in the SAGE minutes until 17 March - it hadn't even been considered as an option before then Caprice got (and you, Tamas, Piers Morgan, the annoying Silicon Valley bro) got there before the scientists advising the government.

It just strains belief as I know my family was even discussing in late Feb whether or not it'd make sense to come to my wedding / would they get stuck in the UK. And we had Italy melting down not that far away, so to think that only a motely crew of Caprica, Tamas, Piers, Tech bro and myself were the only ones able to read the tea leaves seems unlikely.

[garbon]

From March 12th

https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/health/northern-ireland-could-cut-adrift-17909342

Northern Ireland could be 'cut adrift' in UK decision on lockdown

Britain is "highly likely" to go into lockdown over Covid-19 with the Government scheduled to make a decision before next Friday.

No10 has scrambled a team of experts to advise on how and when this might take place, but first scientists must say whether they believe it is essential.

Pressure grew to make a decision as the World Health Organisation last night said the coronavirus is now a pandemic with the number of cases outside China up 13-fold in the past fortnight.

A government source said: "The UK going into lockdown is at this stage highly likely and the final decision is expected to be made as soon as next Wednesday but no later than next Friday.

"A decision like this is vital but the timing of the decision and its announcement are equally vital.

And March 10

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/uk-verge-italy-style-lockdown-unless-action-taken-immediately-12374206/

UK on verge of Italy-style lockdown unless action is taken immediately, professor warns

As of Tuesday morning, the whole of Italy was put on lockdown in a bid to stop the spread of coronavirus. A ban on public gatherings has been implemented, while schools, gyms, pubs, and theatres were closed and weddings and funerals will not be able to take place until after April 3. Measures imposed by Italy have raised concerns that the UK could soon follow suit, as officials said the start of the UK peak of the epidemic is expected within the next fortnight. The government announced that tighter measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 could be introduced and Britons with 'minor' cold, flu or fever symptoms might soon be asked to self-isolate at home. Professor Francois Balloux, of the University College London Genetics Institute, said: 'The trajectory in the UK is so far roughly comparable to the one in northern Italy, but with the epidemic [there] two to three weeks ahead of the situation [here].

'It is possible that a lockdown strategy similar to the one imposed in northern Italy may be adopted by the UK. The Covid-19 epidemic cannot be contained anymore.' As of 9am yesterday, 319 people have tested positive for the virus in the UK and five have died in British hospitals. The Department of Health said a total of 24,960 people have been tested. Currently, there are 9,172 cases of Covid-19 in Italy with 463 deaths, and although the UK is nowhere near those figures yet, experts are concerned they could rise in a similar manner. However, officials have urged that for most people who contract the virus, it will be a mild flu or cold and will fully recover. Meanwhile, Sergio Brusin of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, said a lockdown in the UK could also be an option in as little as two weeks if UK officials do not take more drastic action. Speaking on Victoria Derbyshire, Mr Brusin said: 'If you don't do anything then thousands of cases will come. The UK is in the same situation Italy was two weeks ago.'

...

[garbon]

And lockdown wasn't even considered as an option in the SAGE minutes until 17 March - it hadn't even been considered as an option before then Caprice got (and you, Tamas, Piers Morgan, the annoying Silicon Valley bro) got there before the scientists advising the government.

It just strains belief as I know my family was even discussing in late Feb whether or not it'd make sense to come to my wedding / would they get stuck in the UK. And we had Italy melting down not that far away, so to think that only a motely crew of Caprica, Tamas, Piers, Tech bro and myself were the only ones able to read the tea leaves seems unlikely.

Note my husband just informed me that Caprice is a Californian, so now that we've established 3 out of those 5 are...I guess the right conclusion is listen to what Californians have to say.

[Sheilbh]

It just strains belief as I know my family was even discussing in late Feb whether or not it'd make sense to come to my wedding / would they get stuck in the UK. And we had Italy melting down not that far away, so to think that only a motely crew of Caprica, Tamas, Piers, Tech bro and myself were the only ones able to read the tea leaves seems unlikely.

I agree other people were thinking it. I thought it might happen after Italy but hopefully not - and in January/February I thought it'd be impossible to lockdown Europe like Wuhan.

But as I say I think the key was that two very wrong assumptions were made by a lot of experts that we would not be able to significantly stop it once it got here (Australia, NZ etc have proven us wrong here) and that lockdown would not be possible in the UK due to lack of compliance and inability to enforce it. If you start with those assumptions - and from everything I've read government scientific advisors did - then you're not going to be thinking about lockdown.

I distinctly remember the Channel 4 Tech bro row because I disagreed with Tamas (incorrectly ) about it and was annoyed someone with a viral medium post was doing the news with a professor of infectious epidemiology (and someone who was advising on SAGE):
https://twitter.com/YearCovid/status/1370687078078377984?s=20

[Sheilbh]

Note my husband just informed me that Caprice is a Californian, so now that we've established 3 out of those 5 are...I guess the right conclusion is listen to what Californians have to say.

In a way I genuinely think there could be something to that. I think the Californian mindset is more optimistic/we can deal with this v fatalist/pessimist Brits

[garbon]

Note my husband just informed me that Caprice is a Californian, so now that we've established 3 out of those 5 are...I guess the right conclusion is listen to what Californians have to say.

In a way I genuinely think there could be something to that. I think the Californian mindset is more optimistic/we can deal with this v fatalist/pessimist Brits

I did finally get to have a screen on our balcony door after a year of my husband being like there's only so much time in a year where you have to worry about mosquitos and flies coming in. A mosquito showing much in Feb this year finally tipped things in my favor.

[Tamas]

"let's pretend we are on top of this" action of the week: with schools and kindergartens having been closed for a week and remaining closed for at least one more week in Hungary, the army has been ordered to disinfect all of them. These poor guys are being dressed in these hazmat suits with gas mask and rubber gloves and everything, spraying disinfectant in schools. 

[Sheilbh]

Positive news that both Pfizer and AZ seem to be more effective against the Brazilian variant than was first thought. It looks like they're both similarly effective against both the Kent variant and the Brazillian variant, but significantly less effective against the South African variant (though everyone is now developing boosters).

[Tamas]

Russians are quite behind with their vaccine shipments to Hungary, probably. There should have been 1.6 million doses delivered but it seems only 475 000 have arrived. It is hard to know for sure because the official government homepage, as I was just reading an analysis, usually doesn't match whatever numbers are quoted by the Foreign Ministry (who are of course in charge of getting vaccine shipments because why not). And when the tables on the homepage are brought in line with the FM's lines, they are done lazily, so for example they change the cell referring to the total number but not the one saying how many of those are 2nd doses, giving the obviously/hopefully false impressions that they are not getting a full shipment (with Sputnik V the two doses are actually different it's not just a matter of giving you two shots of the same thing).

And this chaos is even despite this official homepage being MUCH more prudent on updating Russian and Chinese shipment details. Several EU shipments have never been mentioned there. Which is understandable as it is EU chaos and inability to ship vaccines which is blamed for any and all issues. Would be harder to do that if you document how much stuff you are receiving from there.

[Syt]

7 day rolling average of new cases in Austria per 100k per state (the layout is roughly geographical in case you wonder).

[celedhring]

Infections have been flat in Spain for a few days, with some regions (like the Basque Country) already starting to creep up. Easter holidays are around the corner, and even though there are going to be more restrictions in place than during Christmas, the effect is probably going to be rather negative. At least we are at 10% of total population vaccinated with at least 1 shot, which includes everybody in care homes and nearly all over 80s, so the fatality rate of a fourth wave should be significantly lower.