Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Jacob]

It doesn't count as intercourse if you put a ring on it?

Something about maintaining erections longer, maybe?

[Sheilbh]

AstraZeneca have reduced the scheduled delivery to the EU from 220 million to 100 million doses of vaccine till end of second quarter, citing "export restrictions."

Yeah. There'd been an announcement (by the Commission) that they could only provide 90 million doses in Q2, then AZ said they can supply 180 million if they use their international supply chain. But it looks like a lot of that was the 50 million they can't get out of the US.

Of course there is data in the clinical trial that the AZ vaccine improves in effectiveness for at least three months (and real-life data from the UK on the same issue with the same result) so that 90 million could inoculate almost a quarter of the population in the EU this quarter. I think some countries like Germany are moving to delaying the second dose for AZ but it would make a huge difference if others followed suit.

And there's a crazy story in the FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/8e2e994e-9750-4de1-9cbc-31becd2ae0a8?shareType=nongift

Basically of the two manufacturing sites in the EU only one has been approved by the EMA. The EMA say they've not received a full application from AZ; AZ say it's on schedule to produce. It was identified as a site in the contract with the EU in August, but then only announced in December. It's a bit weird.

[Grey Fox]

Can the EU get the AZ vaccine produce in India by SII?

[The Larch]

And there's a crazy story in the FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/8e2e994e-9750-4de1-9cbc-31becd2ae0a8?shareType=nongift

Basically of the two manufacturing sites in the EU only one has been approved by the EMA. The EMA say they've not received a full application from AZ; AZ say it's on schedule to produce. It was identified as a site in the contract with the EU in August, but then only announced in December. It's a bit weird.

Can you copy/paste? It's paywalled.

[Sheilbh]

Can the EU get the AZ vaccine produce in India by SII?

The site needs to be approved by the EMA. I think that's something the UK has done in the last couple of weeks because there are supply shortages here. I'm not sure if AZ have proposed that to the EU or if the EMA has done the necessary inspections.

[Tamas]

In Hungary the GPs are now ordered to work on weekends and national holidays as well if necessary to make sure they administer all the shots they receive for a given week.

It seems incredible they are maintaining a decent speed with just hospitals and GPs working on this.

[Sheilbh]

In other AZ news in addition to the countries suspending the use of the vaccine (without backing from the EMA) - Italy has suspended use of the vaccine after someone had a stroke after receiving it. This isn't even being investigated by the EMA as there doesn't seem to be any evidence indicating a causal link. But a prosecutor in Sicily has launched an investigation into the CEO for manslaughter (this guy seems to have form - he has previously attempted to prosecute various ratings agencies) and the front page of La Repubblica is "AstroZeneca, fear in Europe":


This is because of 22 cases of blood clotting in the three million people who've been vaccinated, which is no higher than the incidence in the general population and there's no evidence of blood-clotting from the 10 million of so vaccinated in the UK.

Again this just feels like really irresponsible journalism - I don't get it. It feels like this will cost lives both in people not getting vaccinated while it's suspended and in spreading fear on - what, so far - seems like really flimsy evidence (as I say from what I've seen, there is no evidence ). The media need to be really, really careful reporting things like this or side effects

Can you copy/paste? It's paywalled.

Sure - don't report me

EU's AstraZeneca vaccine delay linked to regulatory problems
Dutch factory is yet to deliver a single dose to the bloc despite being listed in EU contract
Michael Peel and Sam Fleming in Brussels, Donato Paolo Mancini in Rome and Hannah Kuchler in New York 3 HOURS AGO

AstraZeneca's struggle to ramp up vaccine supplies to the EU is partly because of the failure of one of the company's key European manufacturing sites to deliver any doses to the bloc six months after the supply contract was agreed.

The Dutch factory, run by subcontractor Halix, is yet to receive EU regulatory approval to supply the region even though it was named in the deal signed between AstraZeneca and the European Commission in August. 

EU officials said AstraZeneca was yet to provide sufficient data. The company said approval of the site remained "on track".

The mystery of the Dutch factory underlines the growing questions over both AstraZeneca's management of its EU contract and the bloc's oversight. AstraZeneca has fallen far behind its planned vaccine deliveries to the EU, which has had a major effect on vaccination rollout.

The EU had administered 10.4 vaccine doses per 100 residents by Friday, compared with 29.7 in the US and 36.5 in the UK, according to data gathered by the Financial Times. Both the US and UK did deals with AstraZeneca earlier than the European Commission.

EU officials said this week that AstraZeneca would fall roughly 10m doses short of its target to deliver 40m doses by the end of March. That goal was already well below the original supply schedule of at least 100m shots by the end of the month. Thierry Breton, EU industry commissioner, said on Thursday that he did not believe AstraZeneca had made "best efforts" to meet its commitments — a reference to language in the August supply contract.

Concern is now growing that the British-Swedish company might also fail to deliver the 180m doses it had initially promised the EU for the second quarter of the year, half of which are due to come from outside the bloc. The US has so far refused to allow exports of any of the company's US-based production, EU officials say. Supplying the EU from other countries in AstraZeneca's worldwide production network could also be difficult.

The Halix factory is one of two facilities — along with the Belgian plant at Seneffe — named as main sources of so-called vaccine drug substance in AstraZeneca's contract with the commission. Pascal Soriot, the company's chief executive, explained in an interview with European newspapers in January that the vaccine drug substance is produced in Belgium and the Netherlands and then finished and packaged into vials at plants in Germany and Italy.

The Seneffe plant has struggled with lower-than-expected yields, while the Halix plant in the Netherlands' Leiden Bio Science Park has produced vaccines but is still not authorised to supply them in the EU.

Last week Breton visited the Halix facility — which should produce at least 5m doses a month — as part of a tour of European vaccine manufacturing sites. Discussions over regulatory approval for the plant from the European Medicines Agency to supply the EU market were ongoing, the officials said.

Asked about the Halix situation, the commission said on Friday that the EMA was ready to fast-track authorisation of new production facilities once it received an application and the necessary information from AstraZeneca. "It is, however, the responsibility of the company to request plants to be covered by a marketing authorisation and to submit all necessary data to that effect," it said. "The commission encourages the company to do so."

A spokesman for AstraZeneca said: "The approval of the site with the EMA remains on track with our original plans and we can confirm that it forms part of our delivery plans."

Halix did not respond to requests for comment. 

EU diplomats have grown increasingly agitated over how many vaccine doses Halix has actually manufactured in the meantime and what AstraZeneca is doing with the product. Officials are counting on stockpiled vaccine to be released for use in the EU once the factory is authorised. In January, the bloc introduced new discretionary controls on vaccine exports to 31 high- and middle-income countries, which Italy has already used to prevent a shipment to Australia.

Brussels has clashed previously with both AstraZeneca and London over vaccine exports. EU officials have claimed the company has shipped vaccines produced in the EU to the UK. AstraZeneca has so far not sent doses in the other direction, even though two UK drug substance plants are referenced in the EU's supply contract as potential sources of vaccine. 

The Halix situation also raises the question of whether the European Commission and EU member states paid sufficient attention to tracking whether the plant was on schedule to deliver. Halix did not issue a press release announcing it had been contracted to produce vaccines until December, more than three months after it was named in the AstraZeneca contract with the commission. 

"If it is the case that this facility is not producing for the EU then it is truly baffling," said one EU diplomat. "It would mean that three of the four plants listed in the original EU contract are not providing doses to the EU." 

[Grey Fox]

Can the EU get the AZ vaccine produce in India by SII?

The site needs to be approved by the EMA. I think that's something the UK has done in the last couple of weeks because there are supply shortages here. I'm not sure if AZ have proposed that to the EU or if the EMA has done the necessary inspections.

Ah well, Canada got 113k doses from that plant. Monitor us for information?

[Zanza]

Germany expects a new peak, likely worse than Christmas, with B117 driving the infection by Easter. 

[Syt]

There was going to be a meeting on Monday to discuss possible steps for relaxing the lockdown. With numbers surging up again this has been postponed and there will be no discussions yet for the time after Easter.

Zanza, I suppose you watched Böhmermann yesterday? Good summary of the Ischgl situation last year.

[Tamas]

I am worried the vaccination program in Hungary will descend into chaos despite still producing decent numbers. GPs (who are bearing the blunt of it) are supposed to work by receiving weekly updates from the central authority, who handles the national registration list (where people wanting a jab register), giving them next week's list of people to contact and either vaccinate themselves or organise them to visit the nearby hospital for a shot.

GPs have been complaining, however, that the central list does not seem to be properly updated with their progress. They repeatedly receive names they have already vaccinated, and they don't get feedback on whether people called up to hospitals by text messages actually attend or not. So each week they need to waste time reviewing the latest lists, comparing it to their own records. This is made worse by them having to be limited to the selection sent to them. So, they can't really operate a "waiting list", replacing someone on the list who has already had it with someone who hasn't - it's just a missed spot for the week.

It all sounds terribly inefficient. Meanwhile it is quite clearly the worst phase of the pandemic in the country, the recent restrictions -whatever their actual effect might turn out to be- clearly came terribly late, and it doesn't seem like they have managed to radically lock down the country. I do very much worry for my parents and grandmother. They do what they can to stay safe, but the whole country just seems overrun by the virus.

[Tamas]

Latest apparent AZ scare is a 38 years old Slovakian lady dying a week after complaining of severe side effects following her jab. No official ruling of cause of death yet, but its not helping for sure.

[alfred russel]

Biden commented in his speech the other day that if all goes as planned we can have "small family gatherings" on July 4 for Independence Day, which will make Independence Day this year truly special.

Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers baseball team is going to have a full stadium for opening day on April 5 -- just over 40k. The game is apparently sold out and the cheapest I can find on stubhub is $137 for a ticket.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/texas-rangers-plan-to-allow-full-capacity-of-fans-for-2021-mlb-opening-day/

[Sheilbh]

Germany expects a new peak, likely worse than Christmas, with B117 driving the infection by Easter. 

From what I read there were fairly detailed proposals to lift restrictions a couple of weeks ago - presumably they're on hold now?

The UK experience is that if B117 is allowed to grow it's really bad - our winter wave this year was worse than the first wave (and in both cases - we're among the worst in the world) - but lockdown measures work.

[Tamas]

They refuse to provide details but it seems in the UAE they have started administering 3rd shots of the Sinopharm vaccine, because some people failed to produce any antibodies even after 2 shots.

And Hungarians are going to receive this by the hundreds of thousands...