Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

I believe Orban did a video or something of him getting the Chinese vaccine - which is decent messaging. Although as I say I'm still not sure there's been studies on how effective it is.

It would go against every piece of information and indication we have of Orban throughout his 30-years carrier to imagine he patiently waited for his turn to be jabbed by the third-world option. I would wager serious money that he was the very first person in the country to receive the Pfizer vaccine. I mean, something like 250 doses were missing officially from the 10 thousand first shipment we were supposed to get from the EU...

[celedhring]

Edit: Unrelated but we have Mayoral and local elections in London and probably the rest of the UK, plus Scottish Parilament and Welsh Senedd elections on 6 May. I have just received a postal vote application form from my council and it looks like they're sending them out to everyone, so everyone who wants to can register to postal vote. Which strikes me as very sensible - even though they say they are working to make polling stations safe.

FWIW, it's been two weeks since the Catalan election and it hasn't had any noticeable effect on the pandemic.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Instead of the planned 368 thousand, only 221 thousand vaccinations happened last week in Hungary.

haven't reached that weekly number yet here...

[crazy canuck]

Quebecers are on their Spring break starting today.  Local news reports are all about them flocking to Whistler.

[celedhring]

740,000 vaccinations this week compared to 530,000 two weeks ago. Hopefully we can keep ramping up, although looking at the shipments this week doesn't look like there's much margin for it.

Instead of the planned 368 thousand, only 221 thousand vaccinations happened last week in Hungary.

Tbf, that is still a very good number (compared to the EU average), given Hungary's size. Better than Spain's for example.

[Sheilbh]

I did a quick look on Our World in Data and Hungary and Spain both look like they're doing pretty decently in terms of roll-out - the challenge is most likely supply constraints. I think Spain's used 75% of their supply which is more than in the US (the UK doesn't publish supply). There are some countries that are doing very badly on roll-out and I feel like it should be a bigger political issue - the Benelux countries for example are way below the EU average and I assume have had a similar level of supply to Hungary and Spain.

Also in addition to the Scottish research, Public Health England have published their research on vaccine effectiveness which is very promising:

New data show vaccines reduce severe COVID-19 in older adults
New data show both Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines significantly reduce severe COVID-19 in older adults.
From:
    Public Health England
Published:
    1 March 2021

Today Public Health England (PHE) has submitted a pre-print of a real-world study that shows that both the Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines are highly effective in reducing COVID-19 infections among older people aged 70 years and over. Since January, protection against symptomatic COVID, 4 weeks after the first dose, ranged between 57 and 61% for one dose of Pfizer and between 60 and 73% for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

The pre-print article:
    compares the rate of vaccination in symptomatic people aged over 70 years of age who test positive for COVID-19, compared to those who test negative
    compares the rate of hospitalisation in confirmed COVID-19 cases aged over 80 who were vaccinated more than 14 days before testing positive, compared to unvaccinated cases
    compares the rate of deaths in confirmed COVID-19 cases aged over 80 who were vaccinated with Pfizer vaccine more than 14 days before testing positive, compared to unvaccinated cases

In the over 80s, data suggest that a single dose of either vaccine is more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisation, around 3 to 4 weeks after the jab. There is also evidence for the Pfizer vaccine, which suggests it leads to an 83% reduction in deaths from COVID-19.

The data also shows symptomatic infections in over 70s decreasing from around 3 weeks after one dose of both vaccines.

The new analysis adds to growing evidence that the vaccines are working and are highly effective in protecting people against severe illness, hospitalisation and death.

Dr Mary Ramsay, PHE Head of Immunisation, said:

"This adds to growing evidence showing that the vaccines are working to reduce infections and save lives.

"While there remains much more data to follow, this is encouraging and we are increasingly confident that vaccines are making a real difference.

"It is important to remember that protection is not complete and we don't yet know how much these vaccines will reduce the risk of you passing COVID-19 onto others.

"Even if you have been vaccinated, it is it is really important that you continue to act like you have the virus, practise good hand hygiene and stay at home.

From this week, the NHS has started to deliver second doses to those people vaccinated first, which will provide higher and longer lasting protection.

Separate studies in healthcare workers show that one dose of the vaccine is preventing people from catching asymptomatic COVID-19 by at least 70%. This will help to reduce the spread of infection in hospitals and care homes, ultimately offering more protection to these vulnerable populations.

[celedhring]

We've used up 85% of supply, but it's very uneven. Pfizer is at 95%, Moderna at 75% (but supply is pitiful), and then AZ is at 45% 

Hopefully they will change the age limit on AZ soon because it is forcing regions to run separate pipelines (since they have to use AZ to target different groups) which is suboptimal.

[Sheilbh]

We've used up 85% of supply, but it's very uneven. Pfizer is at 95%, Moderna at 75% (but supply is pitiful), and then AZ is at 45% 

Hopefully they will change the age limit on AZ soon because it is forcing regions to run separate pipelines (since they have to use AZ to target different groups) which is suboptimal.

I think the Scottish and English data should cause changes on the AZ age limit - I believe German regulators and scientists are saying that they expect to make a change shortly. I'd imagine the other regulators who decided on age restrictions will also want to review that pretty closely.

Also for AZ, unlike Pfizer, there's clinical trial data for a delayed second dose (as well as the emerging data from real-world use in the UK).

[Duque de Bragança]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/28/brazil-covid-variant-uk-health-officials-race-track-unknown/

Scramble to hunt down patient with Brazilian Covid variant

Manhunt? Scramble? Make up your mind.

[Tamas]

Now, in the admittedly shittier and more autocratic country of Hungary, you must have an "address card". Even citizens living abroad (or on the street) must have a "no address" address card. So where to find citizens who landed would be easy, you ask for their address card and take note of the address.

[Syt]

In two weeks, school and youth sports will resume. At the end of the month, outside areas of restaurants and cafés can reopen.

Makes sens, since we're on the right track. 



Around 60% of cases are of the UK variant in the meantime.

[The Larch]

Hey Syt, a news piece has appeared in the press here quoting tweets from Kurz saying that Austria is moving away from the EU vaccine system, blaming EMA for being too slow, and looks to cooperate with Israel and the future. What has been said over there?

[Syt]

Hey Syt, a news piece has appeared in the press here quoting tweets from Kurz saying that Austria is moving away from the EU vaccine system, blaming EMA for being too slow, and looks to cooperate with Israel and the future. What has been said over there?

Pretty much that. In the last days a story surfaces that Austria wanted to cooperate with Israel on vaccine production/distribution but for the sake of EU solidarity had reneged. He's traveling to Israel this week to discuss the matter with Netanyahu and the Danish Prime Minister the options because the EMA is too slow in approving new vaccines, but supposedly the focus will be on future waves of the virus in the coming years.

He's also said previously that he'd be happy to produce Russia's vaccine in Austria (provided its efficacy is secured). I've never seen him take responsibility for anything. Whenever there's something a minister did that turned out shit, he will often claim ignorance (tbf, ministers in Austria are quite autonomous in their resorts), even if it's often quite implausible.

Part of it is the usual deflection from him. Anytime something is criticized about his government he will deflect responsibility elsewhere, or lash out at the sources (be it the prosecutors who investigate corruption of his cabinet members and political friends, vaccinations happening too slowly for public opinion, etc.).

[Sheilbh]

Hey Syt, a news piece has appeared in the press here quoting tweets from Kurz saying that Austria is moving away from the EU vaccine system, blaming EMA for being too slow, and looks to cooperate with Israel and the future. What has been said over there?

Yeah be interested to know - I saw that Austria, Israel and Denmark would cooperate on second generation vaccines. But I'm not sure what necessarily means.

It's also happening across CEE - Poland has requested the Chinese vaccine, Slovakia and other countries are buying Sputnik separately.

The thing that's somewhat striking is that it's precisely the countries that the EU common procurement was meant to protect/help who are moving for other sources of vaccine first. In part that may just be that this wave in CEE has been awful. But the purpose of common procurement was to ensure equitable access and avoid the risk of large and rich European countries hoovering up or seizing vaccines (in the way they did PPE) - and the first countries going outside that are poorer countries in the CEE or small countries like Denmark and Austria. It's interesting.

[The Larch]

I wonder what has gone on behind closed doors, on the face of it it looks absolutely counter-intuitive. On top of that some things don't make much sense, if Austria thinks that EMA is too slow it can move to its own emergency system, as EU regulations allow it during the pandemic. Also, it doesn't seem to be for now, but for the future, in case yearly vaccinations are necessary, and when it becomes routine they'll need EMA approval anyway. And it's not as if Israel has developed its own, top-secret vaccine, it's using the same ones the rest of Europe is using. It's quite head-scratching.