Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

It's surprising how a few places have more Covid deaths than expected deaths. 

Two reasons I can see right off the bat. The disease killing people that would have died throughout 2020 anyway (since it's particularly deadly on the elderly and the infirm), and the flu season being snuffed out.

Agree with Cel and Iorm's points.

But also this may be the more inclusive reporting and better testing - in the UK people who die within 28 days of a positive covid test is the main fatalities stat (and is reasonably accurate given that we now have a lot of testing). But in addition to that there's the number of people who actually have covid recorded on their death certificates and then there's excess deaths.

So in the first wave when we didn't have enough testing the number of confirmed covid deaths was lowest, then excess deaths, then death certificates and there was a bit difference between those stats. Now the number of confirmed covid deaths and excess deaths is more or less the same, there are still more death registrations that include covid (this may include long covid or people who really hang on in hospital but ultimately die?).

[Josquius]

It's surprising how a few places have more Covid deaths than expected deaths. 

Two reasons I can see right off the bat. The disease killing people that would have died throughout 2020 anyway (since it's particularly deadly on the elderly and the infirm), and the flu season being snuffed out.

Also lack of work and motor-vehicle related deaths during lockdowns.

Conversely expect a longer term uptick in poverty and obesity/lack of exercise related deaths.

[Sheilbh]

It's surprising how a few places have more Covid deaths than expected deaths. 

Two reasons I can see right off the bat. The disease killing people that would have died throughout 2020 anyway (since it's particularly deadly on the elderly and the infirm), and the flu season being snuffed out.

Also lack of work and motor-vehicle related deaths during lockdowns.

Conversely expect a longer term uptick in poverty and obesity/lack of exercise related deaths.

Pls don't call me out like this

[DGuller]

  So, are Russians dying of lockdown boredom, or do they have some shortcomings in their statistical reporting?

[Richard Hakluyt]

So, are Russians dying of lockdown boredom, or do they have some shortcomings in their statistical reporting?

It is a complete mystery, a riddle, possibly even an enigma 

[Syt]

Usually, Sunday numbers are low, but we are again over 2k. Cases are especially high per capita among 15 to 24 years olds, so possible losening of restrictions in the leisure and sports area might be pushed off for a bit.

Oh, and police raided a student dorm where 100+ youths were having a big party.

[Legbiter]

Makes sense you'd see an upswing right about now after the tough measures taken to combat all the superspreader events following Christmas. The UK should be reaping the rewards of their excellent vaccination program by now since a lot of their oldies have been jabbed.

[Sheilbh]

Makes sense you'd see an upswing right about now after the tough measures taken to combat all the superspreader events following Christmas. The UK should be reaping the rewards of their excellent vaccination program by now since a lot of their oldies have been jabbed.

Also quite a strick lockdown which makes it a little difficult to see the total impact of vaccines v lockdown - but there is some especially in hospitalisations and deaths which are falling fastest for the vaccinated population:


Which is the opposite of last spring's lockdown:


Also this is the trend - again mix of vaccine and lockdown:

Last day in December: 55,892 UK cases reported
Last day in January: 21,088 UK cases reported
Last day in February: 6,035 UK cases reported

My fear with Europe is this is about the time (by mid-March) that epidemiologists expected the UK variant to become dominant. There's exceptions, but generally being in the UK right now looking at some of the case numbers in Europe feels like I imagine it did being in Northern Italy this time last year. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Edit: And on vaccine effectiveness there's now a big gap emerging between the over 65s who have largely received a dose and the rest, who haven't:


But basically the deaths each day of the over 75s (who have all had the chance to get a vaccine) is halving every week, which is incredible.

[Legbiter]

Also quite a strick lockdown which makes it a little difficult to see the total impact of vaccines v lockdown - but there is some especially in hospitalisations and deaths which are falling fastest for the vaccinated population:

Yeah it's very encouraging. The vaccines will turn covid into the sniffles. Then we might have to get booster shots for the next couple of years while vaccinating the globe but within a few seasons this bug should go the way of the dodo.

My fear with Europe is this is about the time (by mid-March) that epidemiologists expected the UK variant to become dominant. There's exceptions, but generally being in the UK right now looking at some of the case numbers in Europe feels like I imagine it did being in Northern Italy this time last year. Hopefully I'm wrong.

No comment on the EU vaccination rollout. It would just very quickly turn into paragraphs of various expletives. They should have stuck to taking decades to argue over cheese quotas or something. My country can sit tight and wait, here it feels like we're hobbits in the Shire right now but the rest can't wait much longer it seems.

[DGuller]

I was watching a road trip documentary on Youtube by a Russian blogger.  He took a trip to Oklahoma from New York, and was filming along the way.  He noted how no one was wearing masks anywhere, and the video showed it, even if in many places the signs on the entry to the stores asked everyone to wear masks.  He noted that in New York, people would look at you in a hostile manner if you don't wear a mask, whereas in the places he was visiting it would be the other way around.

I went to check the Covid stats, and sure enough, many of the states that he visited were the hot spots.  It just boggles the mind, it seems that people are catching Covid just to spite the liberals.

[Eddie Teach]

Glad I live in the city.

[Syt]

[celedhring]

But also this may be the more inclusive reporting and better testing - in the UK people who die within 28 days of a positive covid test is the main fatalities stat (and is reasonably accurate given that we now have a lot of testing). But in addition to that there's the number of people who actually have covid recorded on their death certificates and then there's excess deaths.

So in the first wave when we didn't have enough testing the number of confirmed covid deaths was lowest, then excess deaths, then death certificates and there was a bit difference between those stats. Now the number of confirmed covid deaths and excess deaths is more or less the same, there are still more death registrations that include covid (this may include long covid or people who really hang on in hospital but ultimately die?).

Well, in the case of Spain the difference between official covid deaths and total excess deaths has been shortening since the first wave. And it's easy to see why:



We were fucking blind in the spring of 2020.

[Tamas]

Instead of the planned 368 thousand, only 221 thousand vaccinations happened last week in Hungary. Altough no official reason has been given, the likely reason is the Chinese vaccine. 275 thousand was supposed to get that one but from other reports it seems like about half of the people called by their GP to receive the Chinese one decline it.

Also, both in that Slovakian video and in Hungarian articles they attribute more severe cases happening due to the new variants. I am wondering if there has been any proof to such. Thing, or it is just that due to a lack of proper testing they are getting an incomplete view on how many people actually have caught it, and draw bad conclusions on how many severe cases they are supposed to see?

[Sheilbh]

Instead of the planned 368 thousand, only 221 thousand vaccinations happened last week in Hungary. Altough no official reason has been given, the likely reason is the Chinese vaccine. 275 thousand was supposed to get that one but from other reports it seems like about half of the people called by their GP to receive the Chinese one decline it.

I believe Orban did a video or something of him getting the Chinese vaccine - which is decent messaging. Although as I say I'm still not sure there's been studies on how effective it is.

Also, both in that Slovakian video and in Hungarian articles they attribute more severe cases happening due to the new variants. I am wondering if there has been any proof to such. Thing, or it is just that due to a lack of proper testing they are getting an incomplete view on how many people actually have caught it, and draw bad conclusions on how many severe cases they are supposed to see?

It would make sense just a matter of maths. If they're talking about the UK variant then it is more transmissible, so you will see more cases and you will see more severe cases even if the proportion doesn't change. I think there's still mixed data on whether or not it leads to more severe cases too.

If it's the Brazilian or South African variants I don't think there's any reason yet to think they are more transmissible or more severe (they just seem to have better escape from antibodies).

And on that theme - I am fuming that we now have the first example of the Brazilian variant in the UK while we still have more or less open borders with mandatory quarantine only for a small number of countries. That's only been introduced in the last couple of weeks after a lengthy period of faffing.

And I get that it's difficult but it feels like the only way to really tackle covid in this country is lockdown to get cases very low then vaccines plus border restrictions/quarantine plus track and trace for the (low) number of remaining cases. So far we're doing lockdown and vaccines but we need to do the others or this might not be effective especially as variants that can be vaccine-resistant spread

Edit: Unrelated but we have Mayoral and local elections in London and probably the rest of the UK, plus Scottish Parilament and Welsh Senedd elections on 6 May. I have just received a postal vote application form from my council and it looks like they're sending them out to everyone, so everyone who wants to can register to postal vote. Which strikes me as very sensible - even though they say they are working to make polling stations safe.