Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

Latest official estimate for the British varian in Spain is 20%. Catalonia is at 32%, although already dominant in some (strangery, rural) areas.

[Sheilbh]

Latest official estimate for the British varian in Spain is 20%. Catalonia is at 32%, although already dominant in some (strangery, rural) areas.

I had a quick look at Denmark - who do a lot of sequencing - and it's up to about 50% (up from about 33% last week) there which is on track. While the proportion is increasing (in line with what epidemiologists predicted which is that it would become the dominant strain by March) it looks like the number of cases of the UK variant are now starting to fall. Previously the number of normal cases was falling but the UK variant was still growing, now it's only growing proportionally.

Which is good news - as we've seen in the UK strict measures can work to stop transmission. I think Denmark is intending to stay with its current measures until the end of February, which hopefully will be long enough

Also seen a few reports from European countries about people choosing not to get the AZ vaccine - seen this in France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the Netherlands. I feel like this is a consequence of some irresponsible reporting/comments by politicians and will make the vaccine roll-out more challening if people are deciding to be picky - especially as vaccine production has increased "dramatically" in Belgium so I think the AZ vaccine is still an important part of the European procurement/roll-out.

I've seen stories about the side-effects have had an issue as well and again it's one of those things that I think media organisations need to be really careful about. Similarly I've seen some reports from news media about people who got infected with covid and suffering quite badly after vaccination - but you actually look at the story and it's about people who tested positive a few days after the vaccine so they were infected before the vaccine produced an immune response.  It just feels irresponsible in a pandemic to be reporting as news a number of people getting side-effects from a vaccine or infected before the vaccine's had effect. It's not great (on the upside it's been reasonably rare and everytime I see it happens people online dunk viciously on it ).

[Maladict]

British variant now responsible for 70% of cases. Numbers are not going down despite lock down and curfew.
Vaccination progress is a joke. Not looking too good here.

[Berkut]

WEll I can assure everyone that you can definitely get Covid after the first vaccine shot!

[Grey Fox]

Within 3 weeks after inoculation is basically normal.

[Iormlund]

Latest official estimate for the British varian in Spain is 20%. Catalonia is at 32%, although already dominant in some (strangery, rural) areas.

In Aragón it went from an estimated 3.3% to 8,4% in a week.

The rate of transmission has been estimated at ~0.8. Enough for a drastic decrease of total infections, but high enough that the British strain will be growing steadily.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. I was seeing in Ireland the government science advisors were noting that the numbers are still declining and R number is below 1 but they think that it is declining more slowly because the UK variant has started to become the dominant strain.

I got the Danish stats wrong as well - their most recent estimate is that R is below 1 for old variants but around 1.25 for the B117. This is the initial data (they've only sequenced 30% of the latest weeks swabs, compared with at least 80% of previous weeks. If that 30% is random and reflects the spread more generally then B117 is still growing as a proportion and in absolute numbers - albeit at a low leve:


Edit: Also I think this campaign takes the right approach:
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-02-18/adil-ray-romesh-ranganathan-and-other-stars-urge-ethnic-minority-communities-to-get-covid-vaccine-in-video-campaign

Obviously more work to do on the ground, one of the helpful things might be that there are a number of vaccine centres now running in Mosques and Temples which will hopefully help address the rumours that there are pork or meat products in the vaccine. I also know there's several other campaigns going on.

At the minute it's probably mainly an issue around healthcare workers. While the focus is on the over-65s that population is far more white than the UK in general - we don't have (and we do need) age-adjusted stats from the ONS on this, but roughly I understand that 5% of BAME communities are over 65, while it's about 25% of the white population. But healthcare workers, because they're working age (and also possibly because they're public sector who are far better on diversity) are likely to be far more diverse and reflect the country (and their cities/communities).

But now the vaccine is likely to be rolled out in more groups under 65 it's really important to make sure that take up is strong in all communities. On the other hand all over 75s should now have been offered a vaccine and the take up is currently 95% which is really good news especially given how high the risk is for that age group. It will save, probably, thousands of lives.

[Tamas]

I am not sure if they have focused on education and income levels when it comes to opposing vaccinations? Maybe people don't oppose being vaccinated on account of being black, but on account of being badly informed and mistrusting the government on account of having low education and shitty living conditions?

[Syt]

Austrian new cases are going up close to 2000 per day again. In Tyrol, e.g., over 30% infections are with the South African strain. Vienna is back over 100 cases per 100k people in 7 days, but on a plus side, for 71% of cases the source could be clarified.

Meanwhile, the government says they consider re-opening restaurants, bars, hotels in March, with the requirement that you need a negative test result to get in. Vienna is massively expanding testing capabilities. They ai to be able to do 1.5 million per week. You already need negative tests for going to e.g. the hairdressers or physical therapy/massages.

[The Larch]

Austrian new cases are going up close to 2000 per day again. In Tyrol, e.g., over 30% infections are with the South African strain. Vienna is back over 100 cases per 100k people in 7 days, but on a plus side, for 71% of cases the source could be clarified.

Meanwhile, the government says they consider re-opening restaurants, bars, hotels in March, with the requirement that you need a negative test result to get in. Vienna is massively expanding testing capabilities. They ai to be able to do 1.5 million per week. You already need negative tests for going to e.g. the hairdressers or physical therapy/massages.

It seems to me that you're going a bit overboard with getting tested in order to access places over there, my brother told me the other day he had to get a negative test before getting an appointment for cutting his hair, just as you mention, and it felt a bit ridiculous to me.

[Syt]

For hairdressers it seems a bit much if masks are used. For restaurants, e.g., where you spend a significant amount of time unmasked, I think it makes sense.

[Sheilbh]

I am not sure if they have focused on education and income levels when it comes to opposing vaccinations? Maybe people don't oppose being vaccinated on account of being black, but on account of being badly informed and mistrusting the government on account of having low education and shitty living conditions?

I'm not sure.

I know there's concerns around basically WhatsApp chain letter circulating in the British Asian community that either say that the vaccines aren't halal or they contain animal products so aren't suitable for Hindus or Sikhs. There's been a lot of focus on various faith and community leaders explaining - I've seen statements from Imams, Islamic and Hindu scholars etc explaining why the vaccines are safe and permissible for Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs. Again this is why I think seeing vaccine centres in Mosques and Temples may be very helpful.

And there is vaccine hesitancy (rather than anti-vax feelings) in Black and Asian communities for historical reasons. Hopefully a lot of the concerns around safety in particular will decline as we all see millions of elderly people getting without any alarming/unexpected side effects or consequences etc.

[The Larch]

For hairdressers it seems a bit much if masks are used. For restaurants, e.g., where you spend a significant amount of time unmasked, I think it makes sense.

It feels bizarre to me also because we don't really have that kind of availability for on-demand testing that you seem to have available over here. Pharmacies are only starting to offer antigen testing in the last couple of weeks, and there was some debate about their reliability and usefulness.

[Syt]

For hairdressers it seems a bit much if masks are used. For restaurants, e.g., where you spend a significant amount of time unmasked, I think it makes sense.

It feels bizarre to me also because we don't really have that kind of availability for on-demand testing that you seem to have available over here. Pharmacies are only starting to offer antigen testing in the last couple of weeks, and there was some debate about their reliability and usefulness.

I had a quick look at the closest testing facility near me, and they have free slots today and all of next week. I could go within the hour if I wanted to. On top of that, pharmacies also offer testing now, provided you reserve an appointment. It's all free.

Starting March 1st, pharmacies will offer up to 5 home test kits per person and month for every Viennese. The test result will not be "official" but is meant e.g. if you want to meet with family so you can have a quick check beforehand.

[The Larch]

For hairdressers it seems a bit much if masks are used. For restaurants, e.g., where you spend a significant amount of time unmasked, I think it makes sense.

It feels bizarre to me also because we don't really have that kind of availability for on-demand testing that you seem to have available over here. Pharmacies are only starting to offer antigen testing in the last couple of weeks, and there was some debate about their reliability and usefulness.

I had a quick look at the closest testing facility near me, and they have free slots today and all of next week. I could go within the hour if I wanted to. On top of that, pharmacies also offer testing now, provided you reserve an appointment. It's all free.

Starting March 1st, pharmacies will offer up to 5 home test kits per person and month for every Viennese. The test result will not be "official" but is meant e.g. if you want to meet with family so you can have a quick check beforehand.

What I get from that is that you have a humongous excess capacity for testing at the moment. 

How do those home kits work? Do you still need to send samples to a laboratory or do they give you an instant result?