Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[celedhring]

Most Spanish regions are already pausing vaccination due to lack of reserves. 

I say we gather our ships at Cádiz and raid England for the vaccines. That has always worked.

You could use the ministry of time to retrieve the Duke of Medina Sidonia from the 16th century to command the fleet 

What could possibly go wrong  ?

We will also pick up some Eurocorps units from Belgium 

[Sheilbh]

You could use the ministry of time to retrieve the Duke of Medina Sidonia from the 16th century to command the fleet 

What could possibly go wrong  ?

RTE: "We regret to announce a Spanish fleet has landed in Wexford"

I think looking at the supply issues - which are inevitable in first 2-3 months of any product launch far less multiple new vaccines - it makes the delayed second dose policy seem even more justifiable to me. Because in the UK we've only used about 450k doses for second doses (basically the people who were vaccinated in December before the new policy was adopted). There is a risk, but I think given the supply issues it makes sense to maximise the number of people who get the protection of the first dose.

If the UK was holding back half the doses for people to get their booster after 3 weeks, it'd be a little bit ahead because of the AZ vaccines being approved early (and for all age groups) but we wouldn't be far off well-performing EU member states like Denmark, Malta, Ireland, Spain etc. And the EU will have far, far more people who've had both doses by the end of next month.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think the government has really got it more or less right when it comes to the vaccination program. Gritted teeth here 

[The Larch]

It may be time to revive the D-notice system. I thought at the time that the location of the facility should not have been made generally public, but felt that I was being paranoid.....heigh-ho..

Well, it's not as if the location of industrial plants from large multinationals is a state secret or anything...

My company has ~72 public plants. My ceo once mispoke & quoted a different bigger number. We have more, way more.

These pharma companies rarely have more than one plant per country, if any. Now apparently this was a plant from another company (Wockhardt, as Sheilbh said), which was sub-contracted for vaccine production.

[Sheilbh]

I think the government has really got it more or less right when it comes to the vaccination program. Gritted teeth here 

Agreed. And given that I almost threw my TV out the window when Johnson said yesterday that "they've done everything they can" - it is tough to say

And I don't think it excuses the 50,000 deaths since November which are overwhelmingly because of avoidable mistakes that literally everyone could see coming but the government didn't act on until the last possible minute. I'm less harsh on the first wave - I think there were genuine institutional issues, I think the scientific advice was wrong on a number of issues (and I thought the government should follow that) and I think even a good government could end up making a lot of those mistakes. But after May I have more or less zero tolerance.

I think appointing Kate Bingham who is a venture capitalist in pharma and healthcare to run procurement was a very good decision. I think she got a large diversified basket of vaccines and pre-purchase orders in early which was sensible - it's annoying we didn't pre-order any of the Moderna vaccine but I feel like that's always a risk. I also think appointing a minister specifically for vaccine deployment in November was a good idea, and Nadhim Zahawi has done a good job (I'd expect that he gets a cabinet role at the next big reshuffle). And it's not a government decision - it's made by the Chief Medical Officers of the four nations - but I think delaying the second dose could backfire horribly. But at this stage I think the argument that it's better to have twice as many people enjoying the benefit of the first dose (which is significant) is better than half the number of people also enjoying the marginal benefit of the second dose (which is smaller).

[mongers]

UK death rate, 14 day and 7 day rolling averages, are now both over 1,220 per day. 

[crazy canuck]

I think the government has really got it more or less right when it comes to the vaccination program. Gritted teeth here 

Agreed. And given that I almost threw my TV out the window when Johnson said yesterday that "they've done everything they can" - it is tough to say

My twitter feed, full of UK academic types, went crazy when he said that.

[The Larch]

Some insight into the AZ vaccine production process:

AstraZeneca has suffered production problems at plants that make the vaccine for Europe, particularly at one site in Belgium.

"We are basically two months behind where we wanted to be," said Soriot.

"The sites that have the lowest productivity in the network are the sites that are supplying Europe," he added.

The vaccine is made in two separate phases. The first is the "drug substance" – the vaccine itself – made for European distribution at plants in the Netherlands and Belgium. The second is the "drug product", where the vaccine is taken to plants in Italy and Germany and put into vials to be distributed to different countries and, ultimately, to clinicians.

The production problem, said Soriot, is with the first "drug substance" phase, the manufacture of the vaccine itself. AstraZeneca uses vast "cell cultures" in batches of up to 2,000 litres. The virus is injected into the cell cultures and the cells produce the vaccine.

However, some plants produce a much higher yield of vaccine than others, up to three times as much.

[Sheilbh]

My twitter feed, full of UK academic types, went crazy when he said that.

Yeah. I was screaming in my living room about opening schools for one day, re-opening in December when everyone I know was like "this seems risky", fucking about with multiple tiers when the new variant was clearly taking off etc

Maybe there is an argument they have done everything they could have (they made all the right decisions, just not necessarily in the right order) but the approach since the summer is that the government only does what is logically inevitable once it becomes absolutely, critically essential. So yes they did everything they could, but each time too late

And as I mentioned we're still pissing about with half measures such as only quarantining people from known hotspots because no-one travels outside the UK. The only good news on the border approach is apparently we've agreed a common approach with Ireland which makes a lot of sense given the CTA. I never thought I'd be in the position of cheering Priti Patel on - but here we are

[crazy canuck]

One silver lining is that vaccine manufacturing within our own countries will become more of a governmental priority

[Josquius]

UK death rate, 14 day and 7 day rolling averages, are now both over 1,220 per day. 

Damn, that sucks. I guess on the positive we should remember this is a delayed indicator vs. case numbers which are now solidly in decline.

[Sheilbh]

UK death rate, 14 day and 7 day rolling averages, are now both over 1,220 per day. 

Damn, that sucks. I guess on the positive we should remember this is a delayed indicator vs. case numbers which are now solidly in decline.

Yeah it looks like deaths probably peaked last week. But based on last time cases and hospitalisations fell quite quickly, while the number of deaths reduced really slowly. I worry that'll happen again.

[Josquius]

UK death rate, 14 day and 7 day rolling averages, are now both over 1,220 per day. 

Damn, that sucks. I guess on the positive we should remember this is a delayed indicator vs. case numbers which are now solidly in decline.

Yeah it looks like deaths probably peaked last week. But based on last time cases and hospitalisations fell quite quickly, while the number of deaths reduced really slowly. I worry that'll happen again.

True.
Though again with hospitals not quite over breaking point I'd put a positive slant on this, its less that it keeps infecting and killing new people and more that people who by all rights should have died are being kept alive longer and in some cases pulling through.
Rather than seeing a massive spike when things are bad we instead get it spread over a wider and ultimately smaller area.

[Richard Hakluyt]

More rigorous lockdowns would come with associated costs, so I do regard them as at least arguable. What is inarguable is that the government's lockdown timing has been utterly abysmal; the dithering in the autumn probably being the most egregious self-inflicted wound. I do wonder what would have happened if all our restrictions over the past few months had been introduced a fortnight earlier....far fewer deaths I'm sure.

[The Larch]

One silver lining is that vaccine manufacturing within our own countries will become more of a governmental priority

Thing is, that goes against decades of business practices by big pharma companies, that have been concentrating most of their production capabilities in emerging countries, basically China and India. Production in western countries has been steadily declining for years.