Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Larch]

The UK "curve" looks rather like a mountain peak at the moment. 

[Josquius]

Anyone seen one with an estimate of the real numbers during the first peak?

[Iormlund]

In Spain it is estimated that 90% of the cases were missed before the lockdown. Even with a similar ratio it would mean you have shot past the first wave already.

[Josquius]

In Spain it is estimated that 90% of the cases were missed before the lockdown. Even with a similar ratio it would mean you have shot past the first wave already.

Given how absolutely awful we were with testing back then it could even be worse I suspect.

Still. Doesn't look great now. Expect others to follow not far behind too...

[Iormlund]

Given how absolutely awful we were with testing back then it could even be worse I suspect.

It's probably similar. A significant amount of people develop clear symptoms, so to catch so few you need to not test even those presenting fever, pneumonia and such. This is what was happening in Spain back in march.

[Sheilbh]

Anyone seen one with an estimate of the real numbers during the first peak?

Estimates are that the peak number of daily infections was actually somewhere between 100-180k a day.

Edit: In good news India's regulator has approved the AstraZeneca vaccine and with the Covax program will be manufacturing an initial billion doses for the developing world (which will be sold at cost).

Edit: Also it'd be interesting to understand why in most places agreement with this statement fell the closer we got to a vaccine. And France - yikes!

[HisMajestyBOB]

I would guess the US change is because of Trump's electoral defeat and greater trust in the incoming Biden administration.
No idea about the other countries. Maybe the French heard most Anglos planned to get it and decided to do the opposite?

[Syt]

So Austria's lockdown is scheduled till 24th January. Around the 15th there's another round of voluntary mass testing. To incentivize people to participate, the government planned to ease the lockdown a week early for people with negative test results.

There were several concerns around it, from how to administrate this (who's responsible for checking/verifying all the customers at a restaurant or people entering a shop, for example) to whether this was possible per the Austrian constitution.

So the opposition parties who hold the majority in the state chamber have said they'll vote to send the law into reevaluation, which makes it impossible to implement it in time.

[Josquius]

Anyone seen one with an estimate of the real numbers during the first peak?

Estimates are that the peak number of daily infections was actually somewhere between 100-180k a day.

Edit: In good news India's regulator has approved the AstraZeneca vaccine and with the Covax program will be manufacturing an initial billion doses for the developing world (which will be sold at cost).

Edit: Also it'd be interesting to understand why in most places agreement with this statement fell the closer we got to a vaccine. And France - yikes!

Very curious.
My partner is in a local francophone messaging group and she noted just the other week that there were a lot of them saying they wouldn't get it and completely lapping up the conspiracy nonsense.
Its a big surprise to me, I would have expected the UK to be worst what with bleed-over from the US, the ubiquitousness of English and our past form for hating experts.

I can't help but laugh at the wisdom of the Russians. In their position I'd be the same.

[Sheilbh]

Very curious.
My partner is in a local francophone messaging group and she noted just the other week that there were a lot of them saying they wouldn't get it and completely lapping up the conspiracy nonsense.

Yeah so I've read that France is the European centre of anti-vaxer stuff for normal vaccines too not just covid. I don't get it - I'd love to know why.

But part of it I think is that it gets humoured. France has announced that 35 random citizens will be appointed to a "citizen collective" that will be responsible for deciding vaccine strategy. Which strikes me as batshit

Its a big surprise to me, I would have expected the UK to be worst what with bleed-over from the US, the ubiquitousness of English and our past form for hating experts.

We hear a lot about anti-vax because we speak the same language as the Americans. And it's one of those things where I think we've imported the discourse without the culture that actually sustains it - it reminds me of a recent Hackney Council diversity initiative that referenced black, indigenous and people of colour. In the UK I feel like talking about "indigenous" people has a very strong BNP flavour

On the vax - people trust the NHS, people trust their doctor and I think that really matters.

[celedhring]

Most people I know that are hesitant about the vaccine (both my parents for starters, which should get it) are more about "they developed this way too fast in order to be properly tested for safety" than conspiracy nonsense.

[garbon]

On the vax - people trust the NHS, people trust their doctor and I think that really matters.

Off topic but do people typically have a singular doctor when interacting with the NHS? In my experience to-date, I've always just been given an appointment with whatever doctor had availability.

[Sheilbh]

Most people I know that are hesitant about the vaccine (both my parents for starters, which should get it) are more about "they developed this way too fast in order to be properly tested for safety" camp than conspiracy nonsense.

Agreed - and that makes sense but my understanding is that normal developments are slower not because they're safer but because they're less well funded. For very good reasons various countries threw money at this so there'd be no round of "we've got the data and now need to submit for an extra round of funding" in the process. Also I understand that big pharma generally are out of the vaccine business because it's not a very profitable area for them - but here you had state funding as only the state can and clear market demand which just changes the picture. The state basically de-risked it for them: they wouldn't need to bear many costs and if it works they'd get a huge number of orders.

One thing I slightly wonder about with some European numbers is possibly if part of it is there's been a general move to alternative medicine/therapies (especially by the middle class) and a suspicion of the "manufactured". I wonder if that's behind some of it and if that's another NHS difference because my understanding is that in some European countries you can use your health insurance for alternative therapies or homeopathy etc, whereas because of the way the NHS is run and it's clearly a rationed healthcare system there is very little tolerance/space for that stuff so you normally need to go private for it which reduces how widely it's done.

Off topic but do people typically have a singular doctor when interacting with the NHS? In my experience to-date, I've always just been given an appointment with whatever doctor had availability.

In my experience it varies a lot. I normally deal with the same doctor in my current GP's surgery - and I feel like that's far more common outside of London (but this may just be memories of being a kid). But I've been with surgeries where I see a different doctor every time.

And actually weirdly the one area this doesn't happen in is out-patient care. I have a chronic condition so go to the hospital to have an update on that it used to be at least once a year but it's now down to every couple of years. Across that time I've always seen the same two doctors/consultants (one retired and now I see his replacement) for the last 10 years or so. Which is counter-intuitive because in my head hospitals are the space where you just see who's available.

[Josquius]

On the vax - people trust the NHS, people trust their doctor and I think that really matters.

Off topic but do people typically have a singular doctor when interacting with the NHS? In my experience to-date, I've always just been given an appointment with whatever doctor had availability.

Depends on the size of your surgery I think.
When I was a kid I went to a doctor in a converted house, there were only 2 or 3 in the whole surgery and 9 times out of 10 I got the same one.
This doctor later merged with others into a big local health centre where its rare I get the same one each visit unless its specifically a follow up appointment about something.

[celedhring]

I wonder if that's behind some of it and if that's another NHS difference because my understanding is that in some European countries you can use your health insurance for alternative therapies or homeopathy etc, whereas because of the way the NHS is run and it's clearly a rationed healthcare system there is very little tolerance/space for that stuff so you normally need to go private for it which reduces how widely it's done.

Certainly not here. You can't get alternative therapies through public health care.