Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

Increased socialising around Christmas - and not a new Covid variant - has driven Ireland's rapid transformation from having the lowest infection rate in the European Union to the fastest rate of deterioration, according to health officials.

Ireland's top virologist, Cillian De Gascun, said late on Friday laboratories had found 16 instances of the variant, discovered in neighbouring Britain, from a sample of 169 positive cases, Reuters reports.

Philip Nolan, the head of Ireland's Covid-19 modelling group, said the following day that he believed the variant represented between 5% and 17% of the current prevalence.

Nolan told national broadcaster RTE:

Right now we believe the UK variant is here at a relatively low level, even with that small sample... We saw an even more intense level of socialisation and viral transmission over Christmas than we might have expected and that's what's leading us to the really precarious position we're in now.

He added that cases could peak anywhere between 3,000 to 6,000 a day and Ireland was set to report more than 3,000 cases on Saturday, a near doubling of its daily record.

[Sheilbh]

All i know is the level of activity I see around me is way higher than during the spring lockdown so I think we could easily squeeze out some further improvement of the situation if he had the willingness to do so.

Sure we need full lockdown now. But even then we only got to an R of 0.6 and if this strain is 50-75% more transmissible then the best case is getting R down to 0.9-1.1 which is either an incredibly narrow path to reducing cases or may not even be enough to stop cases growing.

And I'm not sure 5-17% of current prevalence is very low - for example this is the Milton Keynes Lighthouse Lab results (they'll be doing tests for more than just their region). I don't think that's from sequencing - it's just the fluke of the PCR test so not all of the orange ones are the new variant but it's sort of indicative:


Edit: Incidentally read a couple of pretty grim stories  from the US (I think Ohio and California) of up to 50% of care home and other front line workers declining the vaccine when offered   I don't normally support mandatory vaccinations but I feel like it should definitely be mandatory for people working in care homes or healthcare unless there's a genuine medical reason why they shouldn't get it (like a history of serious allergic reactions).

Edit: Also the local covidiot protest in London (dispersed by the police and led, inevitably, by Corbyn's nut brother) took place outside an actual hospital last night. I can't imagine how angry I'd be if I worked in there to get off shift and be faced with a bunch of pricks chanting that covid's a hoax

[celedhring]

The Catalan regional police has shut down a massive New Year's rave party (300 people) on an abandoned industrial building after a standoff of nearly 2 days  The party-goers had blockaded the incoming roads (the police had to use a bulldozer to clear the way) and when arrested they claimed that the party was a protest to reclaim their freedoms and basic rights.

[Tamas]

Meanwhile in London:

NHS bosses are set to cancel urgent surgery across London in a move that could mean cancer patients waiting months for potentially lifesaving operations, the Observer can reveal.

NHS England chiefs are considering the drastic action because hospitals across the capital are becoming overwhelmed by people who are very sick with Covid-19.

The operations likely to be cancelled, known as "priority two" procedures, mainly involve surgery for cancer where specialists have judged that the patients need to be operated on within four weeks. Any delay could allow their tumour to grow, the disease to spread or both, thus reducing their chances of survival.

[Duque de Bragança]

The Catalan regional police has shut down a massive New Year's rave party (300 people) on an abandoned industrial building after a standoff of nearly 2 days  The party-goers had blockaded the incoming roads (the police had to use a bulldozer to clear the way) and when arrested they claimed that the party was a protest to reclaim their freedoms and basic rights.

That's nothing. There was one in Brittany with 2500 people and 200 gendarmes were repelled (one vehicle burned), before reinforcements and ravers decreasing numbers enabled the gendarmes to put an end to it.

[Valmy]

The head of the Swedish health ministry has been caught Christmas vacationing in the Canary Islands.

One wonders how these individuals think when they make decisions.

Like the mayor of Austin shutting the city down and then vacationing in Mexico.

It is bizarre. I mean politics 101 would suggest make symbolic gestures in a crisis. How tone deaf some of these people are.

[Sheilbh]

I enjoyed the Canadian cabinet minister who was on holiday in the Caribbean but posted regular Facebook videos of himself in a rollneck next to a roaring fire

Edit: Also saw this doing the rounds online and I listened to it at the time (I think I was in hospital). The Radio 4 series Briefing Room where they try and understand a topic by discussing it with experts and this coronavirus one is absolutely wild in retrospect:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000dgcj

The seeds of everything that went wrong in Spring are in there

[celedhring]

The Catalan regional police has shut down a massive New Year's rave party (300 people) on an abandoned industrial building after a standoff of nearly 2 days  The party-goers had blockaded the incoming roads (the police had to use a bulldozer to clear the way) and when arrested they claimed that the party was a protest to reclaim their freedoms and basic rights.

That's nothing. There was one in Brittany with 2500 people and 200 gendarmes were repelled (one vehicle burned), before reinforcements and ravers decreasing numbers enabled the gendarmes to put an end to it.

I will never pretend we're playing in the same league as the French in this particular area of expertise. 

[Duque de Bragança]

That was in Brittany; which likes to think of itself as different from the rest of France. Hence, very close to Catalonia. 

[Tamas]

Boris Johnson has raised the prospect of even tougher lockdown measures, including school closures, being imposed in England in the coming weeks to stem surging Covid-19 rates.

Amid concerns over pressure on the NHS and the higher transmissibility of the new coronavirus variant, the prime minister revealed he was "fully reconciled" to potentially having to "do things in the next few weeks that will be tougher".

He also acknowledged that the coronavirus curbs were "probably about to get tougher".

After nearly a year, we are still doing this whole "well yes, it is looking terrible but since it is only very very likely the present policies will not be enough, we do not change them just yet. But we probably will. Eventually."

[Tamas]

I enjoyed the Canadian cabinet minister who was on holiday in the Caribbean but posted regular Facebook videos of himself in a rollneck next to a roaring fire

Edit: Also saw this doing the rounds online and I listened to it at the time (I think I was in hospital). The Radio 4 series Briefing Room where they try and understand a topic by discussing it with experts and this coronavirus one is absolutely wild in retrospect:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000dgcj

The seeds of everything that went wrong in Spring are in there

It has been slightly less than a year ago but feels like listening to some historic archive.

[Sheilbh]

Boris Johnson has raised the prospect of even tougher lockdown measures, including school closures, being imposed in England in the coming weeks to stem surging Covid-19 rates.

Amid concerns over pressure on the NHS and the higher transmissibility of the new coronavirus variant, the prime minister revealed he was "fully reconciled" to potentially having to "do things in the next few weeks that will be tougher".

He also acknowledged that the coronavirus curbs were "probably about to get tougher".

After nearly a year, we are still doing this whole "well yes, it is looking terrible but since it is only very very likely the present policies will not be enough, we do not change them just yet. But we probably will. Eventually."

Saw someone on Twitter circulating today's agenda
9am-Johnson on Marr "schools 100% safe"

3pm-very high infection figures announced

4pm-TV briefing schedule for 6pm

4:30pm-full briefing details tweeted by journalist

6:20pm-briefing starts

6:30pm-regrettably all primary schools to remain closed for next 2 weeks

Edit: Also this was interesting (I imagine there are low sample sizes involved etc). This just shows the share of sequenced samples that are the new variant. The map on the left is up to December 16 and the map on the right includes up December 22 - so just 5 extra days and pre-Christmas mingling.


As I say I get the Plague Island jokes but the way this is spreading so quickly should, I think, be setting off more alarms internationally.

The South African variant is also worrying (and we have cases in the UK) because there is some evidence that the vaccine might not work so well against it - this isn't catastrophic because it wouldn't be back to the drawing it would be more like re-jigging the flu vaccine but it could take a few weeks. But it's worth being super careful with that one too I think.

Edit: And as it all depends on rolling out the vaccine now, I am thrilled to see familiar issues start to recur from Spring. This time pharmacies industry bodies pleading to help deliver the AstraZeneca vaccine in the same way they're a key point of delivering the flu vaccine every year. Apparently so far they've not heard anything from government

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is amazing.......

The British government "...but, but ,but...who could have possibly foreseen that rolling out the vaccine would require a plan?"

[Josquius]

Schools to be closed tomorrow it seems. Quite a disaster. First my mam got a letter from the union advising not to go in but she said she will anyway or else she won't be paid, the headmaster sent a mail at the same time saying despite everything they will definitely be open... A few hours later they say they'll be shut.

I guess this whole thing has quite a domino effect. One school shuts so teachers with kids have to stay home so other schools close, etc...

[Sheilbh]

Schools to be closed tomorrow it seems. Quite a disaster. First my mam got a letter from the union advising not to go in but she said she will anyway or else she won't be paid, the headmaster sent a mail at the same time saying despite everything they will definitely be open... A few hours later they say they'll be shut.

I guess this whole thing has quite a domino effect. One school shuts so teachers with kids have to stay home so other schools close, etc...

How is Gavin Williamson still in the cabinet - I can only assume he has copious nudes of everyone else that he has threatened unleash on the nation.

This wasn't just predictable, it was predicted by lots of people - as was the fact that what would happen was they'd keep saying schools were fine until the day before term starts when they'd announce schools were closed. And here we are with closures being ordered by local authorities chaotically.