Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[jimmy olsen]

I mean lots more people died on those days from other things, I guess they just mean complications related to be involved with those things. Like sure maybe Antietam did not kill Sgt Jones but the gangrene did.

But color me suspicious there are not more disease days. I know the population is much bigger now and all but we did have the influenza thing.

But the 1918 Influenza pandemic was spread over two years.

Anyways, we just topped 3k.

Worldmeter has us at +3,243 dead on the 9th. That's 360 more than on the 2nd.

22,323 dead in December so far, 296,698 total dead. More Americans dead than were killed in combat in WWII.

[Syt]

The true sufferers of this pandemic.

[Syt]

Deaths per million last 7 days (not including Austria's latest number from yesterday, 106).



Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

[alfred russel]

Anyways, we just topped 3k.

You and this bullshit "we" business.

You aren't on the Patriots, and you skipped out on your country years ago.

[Threviel]

Damn, that list really highlights what a murderous savage failure Swedish measures have been and continue to be.

[jimmy olsen]

New Jersey is going to hit the 1 in 500 dead mark today or tomorrow.

[alfred russel]

New Jersey is going to hit the 1 in 500 dead mark today or tomorrow.

Holy shit!

I remember when New Jersey opened its restaurants, bars, gyms, bowling alleys and schools while everyone had them closed. It even refused to ever close its parks.

Actions have consequences. They could have imposed more severe rules, but chose not to. Places like Sweden took this seriously, and currently have less than half of New Jersey's death rate.

[Legbiter]

The case fatality rate in many countries will probably peak in late January/early February. I expect to see an uptick here in cases following Christmas.

[Sheilbh]

The case fatality rate in many countries will probably peak in late January/early February. I expect to see an uptick here in cases following Christmas.

Yeah I think the trends here don't look great for Christmas and January:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=GBR~ESP~ITA~BEL~FRA~DEU~NLD~HUN~POL&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

[Legbiter]

The case fatality rate in many countries will probably peak in late January/early February. I expect to see an uptick here in cases following Christmas.

Yeah I think the trends here don't look great for Christmas and January:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=GBR~ESP~ITA~BEL~FRA~DEU~NLD~HUN~POL&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

Cool page Sheilbh. Yeah, it's grim and the virus is going to run it's course no matter what at this point. I hope as many elderly can complete a full vaccination course in this month as is humanly possible. I also compared the CFR among the Nordic countries, they kinda just cluster together except for Sweden of course. It's difficult for me to hate too much on them though, they made a different bet in the beginning, it just didn't work out.

[The Brain]

Here's the bottom of the list for the last 7 days, for models to follow.

[alfred russel]

Cool page Sheilbh. Yeah, it's grim and the virus is going to run it's course no matter what at this point. I hope as many elderly can complete a full vaccination course in this month as is humanly possible. I also compared the CFR among the Nordic countries, they kinda just cluster together except for Sweden of course. It's difficult for me to hate too much on them though, they made a different bet in the beginning, it just didn't work out.

It is premature to say "it just didn't work out." In terms of deaths from covid-19 on a per capita basis, Sweden will likely finish well ahead of its nordic peers. However, its death toll is currently 0.072% of its population. Its incremental deaths versus its nordic peers is obviously less. It also isn't obvious why the relevant comparison is just 3 or 4 sparsely populated neighbors rather than the larger european community.

But that aside, if we deduce that a response more in line with european norms would have even eliminated its death toll, it still isn't obvious that the obvious cost to the 0.072% that died isn't more than offset by the cost of the countermeasures to the 99.928% of survivors. It would be redundant at this point to list all the costs, many of which will carry an increase in mortality to the surviving population as well.

[Sheilbh]

It is premature to say "it just didn't work out." In terms of deaths from covid-19 on a per capita basis, Sweden will likely finish well ahead of its nordic peers. However, its death toll is currently 0.072% of its population. Its incremental deaths versus its nordic peers is obviously less. It also isn't obvious why the relevant comparison is just 3 or 4 sparsely populated neighbors rather than the larger european community.

Because those countries are similar in lots of ways including population density and sort of housing population density - one of the reasons Sweden can work, if it is, is because they have the highest number of single occupancy flats in the EU. The other Nordics are similar (they're just not a sociable bunch ).

Here's the Nordics comparison:
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=DNK~FIN~NOR~SWE&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc

I don't think it is too soon to say it just didn't work out, because from my understanding of the Swedish approach their starting premise was: this disease is going to be around for a while and there is unlikely to be a vaccine in the short term therfore we need to take measures that are sustainable in the medium-long term rather than short-term measures that may save more lives but prove unsustainable. I think the vaccine is what makes the Swedish model probably wrong, because actually that's arrived within a year so this won't be around in the same way for a while and short-term measures work because there is a solution in the short-term. I think if we were looking at another year without a vaccine they might well be right (assuming you have the healthcare capacity to take the hit).

But that aside, if we deduce that a response more in line with european norms would have even eliminated its death toll, it still isn't obvious that the obvious cost to the 0.072% that died isn't more than offset by the cost of the countermeasures to the 99.928% of survivors. It would be redundant at this point to list all the costs, many of which will carry an increase in mortality to the surviving population as well.

But economically Sweden has been the worst hit of the Nordics too. Looking across Europe the economic hit seems to depend less on whether you lock down or not, but whether lots of people die or not. Which makes sense - I've always said lockdown is secondary to how people change their behaviour based on the news/their sense of risk. If you have a bad outbreak even without strict state led countermeasures people will adjust their behaviour more than if you had a small outbreak.

[alfred russel]

I don't think it is too soon to say it just didn't work out, because from my understanding of the Swedish approach their starting premise was: this disease is going to be around for a while and there is unlikely to be a vaccine in the short term therfore we need to take measures that are sustainable in the medium-long term rather than short-term measures that may save more lives but prove unsustainable. I think the vaccine is what makes the Swedish model probably wrong, because actually that's arrived within a year so this won't be around in the same way for a while and short-term measures work because there is a solution in the short-term. I think if we were looking at another year without a vaccine they might well be right (assuming you have the healthcare capacity to take the hit).

Sheilbh, if to get a positive assessment of an approach you need to have an accurately assessed starting premise, absolutely no one will have a positive assessment by that standard. No one nailed the starting premise.

[PDH]

But economically Sweden has been the worst hit of the Nordics too. Looking across Europe the economic hit seems to depend less on whether you lock down or not, but whether lots of people die or not. Which makes sense - I've always said lockdown is secondary to how people change their behaviour based on the news/their sense of risk. If you have a bad outbreak even without strict state led countermeasures people will adjust their behaviour more than if you had a small outbreak.

So you're saying the USA's focus on increasing the sheer number of deaths might not have been a great strategy?