Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Threviel]

Oil prices have fallen pretty low at some point, it certainly affected Norway too.  Banking was less affected than other industries.  I think on average, things balanced themselves.

Probably, all economies are integrated enough that any effects should be similar. My point was more that the Nordic economies are not really very identical to each other. Norway is obviously different, but Denmark and Sweden/Finland are not really alike either. Cars and Cruise ships are obvious, but paper is also in a crisis accelerated by Covid.

Comparing Sweden https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/sweden and Finland https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/finland they seem to be doing about similar GDP-wise indicating that lockdown measures in Sweden did diddly squat to improve the economy. Which is ok, seeing as the measures cared diddly squat about the economy.

[Syt]

60% of Austrians plan to party on New Years Eve as they always do. The government will therefore discuss enacting restrictions to prevent that.

[Syt]

Austrian deaths per week 2020 vs. 2000-19:

[alfred russel]

Sweden can't be compared to France or Belgium, it's about as sparsely populated as its neighbours and shares a similar culture, which makes the comparison more apt, imho.
Death isn't the only problem with this disease, again.  I feel like I'm repeating myself.

The problem with all this analysis is that no two countries are identical and both government responses and death rates are all over the board. We have a European country that was rather unique in not shutting down at the start. Its covid death results are now within the range of several major european countries - it is clearly not the worst - but worse than its neighbors.

Look to the US, which has a relatively homogenous culture. 50 states, each with their own response. New York and California are two of the states that have had the most strict lockdowns. The New York covid deaths are per capita second highest in the country, but California is well below the national average. Maybe they aren't comparable because NYC was so bad, even though California has cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco. Take out New York and replace with Massachusetts, which has also been strict. It is fourth worst. States that also have major cities and have been infamous for not imposing strict rules -- Georgia and Florida - are right at the national average.

It isn't just an urban / rural thing either. Mississippi lacks any significant cities but it second worst in the South (behind Louisiana). The Dakotas are in the top 10.

You can spin any story you want. I'm sure there will be many papers trying to tease statistical significant comparisons out of what happened, but I'm doubtful anything really meaningful can be shown.

The paper from March I referenced above anticipated something like 0.7% of the population succumbing to covid without any countermeasures. The US will probably be between 0.1%-0.2% and Europe as a whole probably a bit better off than the US. Perhaps the story is that it was successfully contained in Europe and the US, with the more extensive social restrictions imposed in some places unable to demonstrate incremental benefit?

[Tamas]

Austrian deaths per week 2020 vs. 2000-19:

Yes but people in 2000-19 could go hiking so it evens out.

[Zanza]

The real difference is not between European countries, but rather compared with East Asia. Not sure if it is just their lack of privacy and better compliance with hygiene measures.

[Tamas]

Possibly relevant to my photo angles debate with Sheilbh

The percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in England has continued to decrease according to the weekly infection survey from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

An estimated 481,500 people within the community population in England had Covid-19 in the week of 29 November to 5 December 2020, equating to one in 115 people (95% credible interval: one in 120 to one in 105).

Though rates decreased in most English regions, the proportion of people testing positive in London has increased and there are early signs of increase in the east of England.

[Sheilbh]

The real difference is not between European countries, but rather compared with East Asia. Not sure if it is just their lack of privacy and better compliance with hygiene measures.

Agreed. There are comparisons within Europe of degress of effectiveness, but the reality is all of Europe failed in comparison with East Asia.

And I wonder if the key factor that matters isn't density or lockdown or not etc - if it will just be whether a country/society has recent experience of a pandemic?

[alfred russel]

And I wonder if the key factor that matters isn't density or lockdown or not etc - if it will just be whether a country/society has recent experience of a pandemic?

If there is another pandemic in a few years I fully expect widespread noncompliance and probably protests from the very start.

[Tamas]

The real difference is not between European countries, but rather compared with East Asia. Not sure if it is just their lack of privacy and better compliance with hygiene measures.

Agreed. There are comparisons within Europe of degress of effectiveness, but the reality is all of Europe failed in comparison with East Asia.

And I wonder if the key factor that matters isn't density or lockdown or not etc - if it will just be whether a country/society has recent experience of a pandemic?

Yeah I don't know about other countries, but in case of the UK, they saw it was a coronavirus, ergo who cares what them Asians are doing, we have a nice plan from 2011 on how to manage a controlled rollout of a flu pandemic via MS Excel, let's initiate that. They did reserve course after Italy, Spain, and France proved this might be a tad bit more complicated, but it does seem like Far East's recent experiences had them better prepared and understanding of what's at stake.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I don't know about other countries, but in case of the UK, they saw it was a coronavirus, ergo who cares what them Asians are doing, we have a nice plan from 2011 on how to manage a controlled rollout of a flu pandemic via MS Excel, let's initiate that. They did reserve course after Italy, Spain, and France proved this might be a tad bit more complicated, but it does seem like Far East's recent experiences had them better prepared and understanding of what's at stake.

And I've mentioned it before and I'm sure this attitude wasn't limited to France, but I remember reading an article about France while they were being really badly hit. It had a quote from a French civil servant that "France does not learn from South Korea". I think that Euro-arrogance (especially perhaps from the preening medium powers ) was an issue.

[Tamas]

Yeah I don't know about other countries, but in case of the UK, they saw it was a coronavirus, ergo who cares what them Asians are doing, we have a nice plan from 2011 on how to manage a controlled rollout of a flu pandemic via MS Excel, let's initiate that. They did reserve course after Italy, Spain, and France proved this might be a tad bit more complicated, but it does seem like Far East's recent experiences had them better prepared and understanding of what's at stake.

And I've mentioned it before and I'm sure this attitude wasn't limited to France, but I remember reading an article about France while they were being really badly hit. It had a quote from a French civil servant that "France does not learn from South Korea". I think that Euro-arrogance (especially perhaps from the preening medium powers ) was an issue.

For sure. I mean, even I felt back in February that this might spread a bit here but SURELY west-European countries can't mess such things up!

[Barrister]

Yeah I don't know about other countries, but in case of the UK, they saw it was a coronavirus, ergo who cares what them Asians are doing, we have a nice plan from 2011 on how to manage a controlled rollout of a flu pandemic via MS Excel, let's initiate that. They did reserve course after Italy, Spain, and France proved this might be a tad bit more complicated, but it does seem like Far East's recent experiences had them better prepared and understanding of what's at stake.

And I've mentioned it before and I'm sure this attitude wasn't limited to France, but I remember reading an article about France while they were being really badly hit. It had a quote from a French civil servant that "France does not learn from South Korea". I think that Euro-arrogance (especially perhaps from the preening medium powers ) was an issue.

I have a feeling that because Canada has dealt with the pandemic more successfully than the US did we're going to chalk up what we did as a success, when really when looked at globally it has been far from that.

[HVC]

i think shame based societies would have an easier time  enforcing pandemic rules. Alfred would be shunned for climbing in japan

[Sheilbh]

I have a feeling that because Canada has dealt with the pandemic more successfully than the US did we're going to chalk up what we did as a success, when really when looked at globally it has been far from that.

Yeah and the other factor (which I think will make East Asia, especially Japan, look even better) is given what we know about covid adjusting deaths for population tells us something. I think it would be more telling if we adjusted deaths for the age profile of a country.