Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Razgovory]

Why has the Western Hemisphere done so much worse than the Eastern one? Damn.

Better reporting.

[The Minsky Moment]

Sweden decided to prioritize the economy and risk a higher death rate.  On the economic side GDP held steady in the 1st Q, numbers for 2nd Q will be released next week so we'll see.  It's a stark tradeoff in terms of fatalities but the death rates have steadily declined.

In comparison the US seems to have opted for the worst of both worlds, courting economic ruin while losing control over death rates.

[The Brain]

I don't know if Sweden prioritized the economy per se, or not. Meaning I don't know. I do know though that in any emergency you have to make sure that you have the endurance to last the entire emergency. I would be surprised if this didn't figure a lot into the thinking of the experts at the responsible government agency. Sweden's political tradition is to depend heavily on the experts when it comes to technical matters.

[DGuller]

I was just trying to spoof CC.    I now know what The Onion writers feel like after 2016. 

[The Brain]

I was just trying to spoof CC.    I now know what The Onion writers feel like after 2016. 

[garbon]

I don't know if Sweden prioritized the economy per se, or not. Meaning I don't know. I do know though that in any emergency you have to make sure that you have the endurance to last the entire emergency. I would be surprised if this didn't figure a lot into the thinking of the experts at the responsible government agency. Sweden's political tradition is to depend heavily on the experts when it comes to technical matters.

Didn't we already do this one. Given the lower than expected ICU usage, looks like they overshot mark on the endurance bit. Of course, might be good for society on the whole but not so great for the individuals who maybe could have been saved in the ICU.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa864/5866094

Managing COVID-19 spread with voluntary public-health measures: Sweden as a case study for pandemic control

Background
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally, causing extensive illness and mortality. In advance of effective antiviral therapies, countries have applied different public-health strategies to control spread and manage healthcare need. Sweden has taken a unique approach of not implementing strict closures, instead urging personal responsibility. We analyze the results of this and other potential strategies for pandemic control in Sweden.

Methods
We implemented individual-based modeling of COVID-19 spread in Sweden using population, employment, and household data. Epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 were validated on a limited date range; where substantial uncertainties remained, multiple parameters were tested. The effects of different public-health strategies were tested over a 160-day period, analyzed for their effects on ICU demand and death rate, and compared to Swedish data for April 2020.

Results
Swedish mortality rates fall intermediate between European countries that quickly imposed stringent public-health controls and countries that acted later. Models most closely reproducing reported mortality data suggest large portions of the population voluntarily self-isolate. Swedish ICU utilization rates remained lower than predicted, but a large fraction of deaths occurred in non-ICU patients. This suggests that patient prognosis was considered in ICU admission, reducing healthcare load at a cost of decreased survival in patients not admitted.

Conclusions
The Swedish COVID-19 strategy has thus far yielded a striking result: mild mandates overlaid with voluntary measures can achieve results highly similar to late-onset stringent mandates. However, this policy causes more healthcare demand and mortality than early stringent control and depends on continued public will.

[The Brain]

I don't know if Sweden prioritized the economy per se, or not. Meaning I don't know. I do know though that in any emergency you have to make sure that you have the endurance to last the entire emergency. I would be surprised if this didn't figure a lot into the thinking of the experts at the responsible government agency. Sweden's political tradition is to depend heavily on the experts when it comes to technical matters.

Didn't we already do this one. Given the lower than expected ICU usage, looks like they overshot mark on the endurance bit. Of course, might be good for society on the whole but not so great for the individuals who maybe could have been saved in the ICU.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa864/5866094

Managing COVID-19 spread with voluntary public-health measures: Sweden as a case study for pandemic control

Background
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally, causing extensive illness and mortality. In advance of effective antiviral therapies, countries have applied different public-health strategies to control spread and manage healthcare need. Sweden has taken a unique approach of not implementing strict closures, instead urging personal responsibility. We analyze the results of this and other potential strategies for pandemic control in Sweden.

Methods
We implemented individual-based modeling of COVID-19 spread in Sweden using population, employment, and household data. Epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 were validated on a limited date range; where substantial uncertainties remained, multiple parameters were tested. The effects of different public-health strategies were tested over a 160-day period, analyzed for their effects on ICU demand and death rate, and compared to Swedish data for April 2020.

Results
Swedish mortality rates fall intermediate between European countries that quickly imposed stringent public-health controls and countries that acted later. Models most closely reproducing reported mortality data suggest large portions of the population voluntarily self-isolate. Swedish ICU utilization rates remained lower than predicted, but a large fraction of deaths occurred in non-ICU patients. This suggests that patient prognosis was considered in ICU admission, reducing healthcare load at a cost of decreased survival in patients not admitted.

Conclusions
The Swedish COVID-19 strategy has thus far yielded a striking result: mild mandates overlaid with voluntary measures can achieve results highly similar to late-onset stringent mandates. However, this policy causes more healthcare demand and mortality than early stringent control and depends on continued public will.

As you hint at, there are many things related to endurance that aren't about ICUs. Psychological/emotional stamina among the population, the economy, functioning education...

[Threviel]

Endurance, meaning that all limitations ought to be sustainable long term and be acceptable to the people. Sweden is in for the long term and has been from the beginning.

[katmai]

Anchorage announced closing down city bars and nightclubs and in restaurant dining for month of Aug to try and stem the uptick in cases

[merithyn]

If you were thinking of sending your kids to school, you might want to rethink that.

WSB Atlanta: Hundreds of Georgia campers infected with coronavirus at YMCA camp in just days, CDC report finds.
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/hundreds-georgia-campers-infected-with-coronavirus-ymca-summer-camp-cdc-report-finds/EL5FFTVSDVETRGROPEXK6CIZNM/

[mongers]

So what's the over/under on this virus having mutated to become More infectious?

[Valmy]

If you were thinking of sending your kids to school, you might want to rethink that.

WSB Atlanta: Hundreds of Georgia campers infected with coronavirus at YMCA camp in just days, CDC report finds.
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/hundreds-georgia-campers-infected-with-coronavirus-ymca-summer-camp-cdc-report-finds/EL5FFTVSDVETRGROPEXK6CIZNM/

Fortunately locally this has been kicked down the road until mid September. We are on zoom next month.

[DGuller]

It seems like in NYC area everyone is already set to be home through the end of the year.  Both my dad and myself were told that we aren't coming back to the office this year.  I assume that also strongly implies that kids aren't going to be attending in person this year either.

[merithyn]

It seems like in NYC area everyone is already set to be home through the end of the year.  Both my dad and myself were told that we aren't coming back to the office this year.  I assume that also strongly implies that kids aren't going to be attending in person this year either.

We are home until the New Year at the earliest. No decision has been made for the kids yet.

[Valmy]

I don't see anything but wishful thinking saying this is a good time to go back to school.