Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

To what? Dress like dat?

What happened to Ricki Lake btw?

Video here:
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1287649130655997959?s=20

I think it's quite well done but everyone else seems to hate it - so going to put this with the inevitability of Scott Walker winning the 2016 nomination as an example of my unerring political radar

[alfred russel]

Regardless, this is an episode where it was a major story that he got covid, prominently featuring how he minimized his personal risk from the disease, but when it more or less turned out his predictions were right (based on what we know) it gets reported with a whimper.

Which prediction did he get right the protection of an athletic physique or hydroxychloroquine? Because isn't the more accurate description that from an outside perspective he doesn't appear that athletic and from a medical research perspective there's minimal evidence hydroxychloroquine would help him. So it's not his predictions but that he is in a lower risk category and obviously the vast majority of cases are mild, which just reinforces what we know.

Incidentally Johnson is taking a very different approach leading this into a push against obesity (and more nanny state-ism ) with a video in which he just admits "I was too fat"

That he would have a mild case.

Obviously most cases are mild, but there was quite a bit of schadenfreude when he was diagnosed highlighting that he previously commented he wasn't at risk for a serious case. It turns out he was right. My general impression is that is getting a lot less focus than when he was diagnosed. If he ended up needing hospitalization or ICU care, you can speculate what the coverage would have been.

Meanwhile, our local paper is running a story with an obviously obese 24 year old who died and the headline starting, "covid doesn't care about your age". Which is true in the sense that a virus doesn't have emotions, but seems a little misleading.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus/covid-doesnt-care-about-your-age-georgias-virus-deaths-soar/63LQCR3QG5CCBEAISJ5XCLQHMM/

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, it's fucking insidious. What killed it here the first time was collective local action, massive brute force testing and 2 week quarantine for all incoming travelers. Now we're back to "safe" country lists, only testing on arrival and trying to manage it with overthought excel solutions and it's right back.

Yeah - and it feels like if that's the case for countries like Iceland and there's an increasing number of cases in New Zealand too, that we're not going back to our old levels of connectedness until there's a vaccine. It'll be safe country lists, quarantines and testing on arrival and the permanent risk that holidays will be cancelled/require quarantine for the foreseeable.

Incidentally the UK has now put all of Spain on none but essential travel, they previously excluded the islands. I wonder if that's so people can claim on travel insurance?

[Sheilbh]

Obviously most cases are mild, but there was quite a bit of schadenfreude when he was diagnosed highlighting that he previously commented he wasn't at risk for a serious case. It turns out he was right. My general impression is that is getting a lot less focus than when he was diagnosed. If he ended up needing hospitalization or ICU care, you can speculate what the coverage would have been.

Yeah - I mean Johnson did end up in ICU and to be honest it was one of the weirdest news weeks I've ever experienced because it happened just as the virus peaked (I also think decisions weren't being made by government because he was away). Part of me wonders if the reason that people in the UK have been slower to go back to "normal" than other European countries even after lockdown rules have been lifted is that that happened.

Meanwhile, our local paper is running a story with an obviously obese 24 year old who died and the headline starting, "covid doesn't care about your age". Which is true in the sense that a virus doesn't have emotions, but seems a little misleading.
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus/covid-doesnt-care-about-your-age-georgias-virus-deaths-soar/63LQCR3QG5CCBEAISJ5XCLQHMM/

Yes. There's been a few examples from the US press - and also officials - of really emphasising how young people can get this and die from it which I think are excessive and a bit misleading. For the vast majority of people it's a mild illness, or you don't display symptoms and generally younger people are far, far less at risk. The risk factors if you are younger are diabetes and obesity.

I'm not sure if from officials - I remember Birx doing this - if the purpose is to stop people from taking the piss because they're young and think they're invulnerable (covid parties, jacking in social distancing etc) but it really is inaccurate and I don't think it helps us understand the risk of this if we just focus on the outliers.

[Razgovory]

Why are people so stupid. This video mentioned in article has been popping up in my social media feeds( which at least let's me know who to never take advice from ever again if they believe this shit )

President Donald Trump exhibited his new serious tone toward the coronavirus crisis on Monday night, sharing a viral video of fringe doctors touting the controversial anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine as "a cure for COVID."

The video, which also featured the doctors dismissing mask-wearing, was eventually taken down by Facebook for "sharing false information" about the virus, after racking up millions of views in a matter of hours. Several right-wing outlets and personalities, however, continued to promote the clip of the doctors' press conference on Twitter, eventually reaching the president's timeline.

Besides retweeting the clip several times, Trump—who recently said his retweets tend to get him "in trouble"—went on to share several other posts promoting hydroxychloroquine, which the FDA has rescinded for emergency use for the virus.

Numerous studies and clinical trials have found that the drug has shown no real benefit in treating coronavirus patients. Experts also have warned of potentially deadly side effects.

Trump then shared a tweet directly from Dr. Stella Immanuel, one of the physicians who took part in the press conference. Immanuel is also a preacher who once wrote a book claiming that there is a Satanic plot to take over the world and recently challenged CNN anchors and top infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci to provide her with urine samples. (The video tweeted by Immanuel, along with several others the president shared, were later taken down.)

She also didn't take kindly to Facebook removing the video of her saying masks don't work and that hydroxychloroquine is a magic cure for the virus.

"Hello Facebook put back my profile page and videos up or your computers with start crashing till you do," she tweeted late Monday night. "You are not bigger that God. I promise you. If my page is not back up face book will be down in Jesus name."

The president also shared tweets attacking Fauci on Monday night, despite insisting recently that he had a "very good relationship" with the doctor after White House officials publicly blasted him.

Does the urine sample need to be in a cup?

[crazy canuck]

Certainly, the standards of comfort expected for students (and faculty) have risen tremendously, and so are the costs - and the equipment - of the facilities (labs, computers, etc.)

Yep, the cost of just keeping up with technological developments is significant when considered against the backdrop of trying to attract the brightest and best faculty and students, in addition to attempting to attract foreign students to make up for the cuts in government funding.

[Sheilbh]

So on that PHE data point this is now really noticeable. The ONS aren't doing any more weekly updates (because mortality has reverted to average they'll now just include covid-19 in their normal weekly updates), but in the week up to 17 July there were 295 death certificates (date of occurrence) which mention covid-19.

Again difficult to track but assuming those deaths were reported on a four day lag, there were about 600 deaths reported according to the gov.uk tracker (which includes NHS and PHE data). What's striking is the NHS data follows the same trend as the ONS data while the PHE data is now plateauing above that. So I feel like there is a definite issue there, which I think can be explained by that weird way of calculating the deaths (cross-checking everyone who's ever tested positive with everyone who's death was reported on a given day). It doesn't matter during the peak, but now we're (currently) in the long tail I feel like that could be showing up and explain the figures.

Edit: Incidentally on the risks I really liked this table comparing covid-19 deaths with typical causes of deaths over the same 16 week period. The escalation once you hit about 40 is really extraordinary:


So from a UK perspective following the outbreak - which really puts paid to the "it's just flu" comparison:
    For each age-group under 20, fewer have died with Covid than on average die from flu each year. This means that for all ages above 20, more have died from Covid than would typically die from flu each year.
    For those over 90, around the same number have died with Covid as died from flu in 2014-2015, the worst recent year.
    For each age-group under 35, fewer have died with Covid than on average die from road accidents each year.
    For each age-group under 50, fewer have died with Covid than on average die from accidents and injuries each year.

[Zoupa]

Bolsonaro has tested positive for Coronavirus.

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-03-25-Se-Bolsonaro-apanhasse-covid-19-nada-sentiria-ou-entao-seria-acometido-de-uma-gripezinha

Previous Bolsonaro statement:
"if I were to catch Covid-19, I would not feel anything, or at most a small flu. Given my athletic record." 

"No meu caso particular, pelo meu histórico de atleta, caso fosse contaminado pelo vírus, não precisaria me preocupar, nada sentiria ou seria, quando muito, acometido de uma gripezinha ou resfriadinho, como bem disse aquele conhecido médico daquela conhecida televisão"

from 3:16 to 3:37

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl_DYb-XaAE

So it turns out he is recovered and had mild symptoms, at least that is what he is presenting and there doesn't seem to be evidence to the contrary. Rather than crediting his athletic record for the mild symptoms, he is crediting hydroxycloroquine.

Regardless, this is an episode where it was a major story that he got covid, prominently featuring how he minimized his personal risk from the disease, but when it more or less turned out his predictions were right (based on what we know) it gets reported with a whimper.

I see you're back on your "media is creating a panic" old line.

It must feel good to be vindicated all the time like that. Good for you buddy. 

[alfred russel]

I see you're back on your "media is creating a panic" old line.

It must feel good to be vindicated all the time like that. Good for you buddy. 

You don't think that there is sensationalism in the way covid-19 has been reported?

[crazy canuck]

I see you're back on your "media is creating a panic" old line.

It must feel good to be vindicated all the time like that. Good for you buddy. 

You don't think that there is sensationalism in the way covid-19 has been reported?

Certainly, all the news reports that said it was no worse than the flu.

[Valmy]

I see you're back on your "media is creating a panic" old line.

It must feel good to be vindicated all the time like that. Good for you buddy. 

You don't think that there is sensationalism in the way covid-19 has been reported?

Man you are talented at goal post moving. It's impressive.

[Valmy]

Wait only 191 people are killed in all of England and Wales over a typical 16 week period? Damn.

[crazy canuck]

Wait only 191 people are killed in all of England and Wales over a typical 16 week period? Damn.

Well yeah, UK, Germany, France, Australia, Canada, etc. all have low homicide rates.

[Zoupa]

Wait only 191 people are killed in all of England and Wales over a typical 16 week period? Damn.

Well yeah, UK, Germany, France, Australia, Canada, etc. all have low homicide rates.

Quebec has about 70 homicides per year. Population of 8.5 million. So more or less 0,8/100 000. US has 5/100 000, about 6 times more.

[The Brain]

Sweden has around 110 per year. Population 10 million.