Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[mongers]

Was driving a bit around lunchtime in an industrial estate. Traffic seems to be back to almost normal levels, and people keep MAYBE 1 meter distance, probably less. Once the stores open we'll be back to normal.

Yes. Thankfully I, for one, am 100% reassured that the recent slew of announcements around various lockdown-lifting measures and the launch of track and trace a week early is not at all being driven by a desire to distract everyone's attention and save a senior advisor.

Meanwhile, the Daily Star had today's Page 3 girl wearing a Dominic Cummings mask which is the stuff of nightmares

Yes, the lockdown exit was always going to be an entirely political project and this PR disaster has given it a boost in the wrong direction.

The scientists will be kept on-board so if Boris Cummings needs someone to blame for when or the exit causes a spike or the death rate doesn't significantly drop.

[Sheilbh]

The scientists will be kept on-board so if Boris Cummings needs someone to blame for when or the exit causes a spike or the death rate doesn't significantly drop.

I mean I still have questions on the scientists around this - particularly around whether they realised we maybe needed a different approach than our flu pandemic plan (and I totally get why flu is the basis for that because it's the bigger risk), I just wonder when they realised that it wasn't behaving like flu, if they decided to try and respond to that or just carried on with the plan we have.

Also, obviously the structural issue around enough beds is clearly on the government. But we have an incredibly low hospitalisation rate - France, yesterday, still had 17,000 people hospitalised; we peaked at around 18,000. It's really striking, especially after the Nightingales came online and they were barely used, but capacity was never breached. Which makes me wonder if our treatment protocols were just a lot more aggressive than in other countries - it's something I've wondered about for a while because we are such an extreme outlier.

I still think the major political scandals are testing, PPE and the structural issues (which impact both testing and PPE).

[Legbiter]

Interesting thread on Twitter by an expert:

Yeah Switzerland could have had it come roaring back. The fresh clusters would have sprung up a week ago, given the incubation period. Encouraging that it did not.

Here we're opening up in mid-June, tourists will be tested on arrival, they have to download the contact tracing app and they'll be nagged about vigilance and where to call if they develop any symptoms. Might not be a bad time because there will only be a fraction of them showing up at first which gives time to fine-tune the whole thing.

Currently there are only 3 people with a confirmed infection left in the country.

[DGuller]

Interesting thread on Twitter by an expert:

Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois

Apparently similar observation in Denmark - and these are countries with extensive testing.

I think it's very much possible that the initial uncontained spread of COVID-19 was just due to us being caught with our pants down, and that basic common sense measures coupled with individual hyperawareness of the dangers will be enough to keep the spread down to brush-fire levels.  That doesn't mean that lockdowns were a mistake, I think they were necessary to buy time for becoming smarter about COVID-19 and putting common sense measures in place, but that may mean that continued draconian measures are excessive. 

The right-winger governors may have had the right idea for the wrong reasons, but I think it would be wise to leave open the possibility that they did indeed have the right idea.  Going all in with one's credibility knowing, just knowing that there must be mass graves hidden somewhere, you just have to look hard enough, may be a tactical blunder.  That said, these US governors may yet turn out to be our own Bolsonaros, so lack of immediate conflagration upon reopening does not preclude the possibility that it's going to come with just another characteristic delay that makes sussing out cause and effect relationships so incredibly frustrating with this virus.

[Sheilbh]

The right-winger governors may have had the right idea for the wrong reasons, but I think it would be wise to leave open the possibility that they did indeed have the right idea.  Going all in with one's credibility knowing, just knowing that there must be mass graves hidden somewhere, you just have to look hard enough, may be a tactical blunder.  That said, these US governors may yet turn out to be our own Bolsonaros, so lack of immediate conflagration upon reopening does not preclude the possibility that it's going to come with just another characteristic delay that makes sussing out cause and effect relationships so incredibly frustrating with this virus.

It's possible. I have questions over the testing and the data those Governors have (just given how many states seem to be fiddling their data - and it's not a Republican/Democrat thing with the Governors) which I think is a big issue if you're re-opening. It seems dangerous if you don't have a system to know what's happening. I'm also still very dubious about the places they're opening (churches with lots of singing, restaurants and bars with AC - closed, contained spaces with prolonged conversations are highest risk). As I say I don't necessarily worry that they'll have an immediate second wave (or that we will), I worry that there will be a local outbreak and by the time they're aware of it it's already out of control in the wider community. My second wave worry is more about later this year and it applies to everyone.

But I agree - I don't think lockdown is a policy. It's a policy failure. Our initial measures failed so we needed lockdown which is blunt instrument to stop the spread while we put measures in place and have a chance to start again.

Edit: For first time in ages tuned into the briefing and we are now 3 months into these daily briefings and, for the first time I think, the Prime Minister has actually noted that health is devolved so the measures he's announcing only apply to England

[Duque de Bragança]

So now I am the orange zone (still no Spiral Zone thankfully).



Orange zone, as in still under (prudent) watch. Val d'Oise (95), north of Paris (75), being the worst.

So restrictions will be eased June 2nd, and more easing by June 22nd, tentative date for the reopening of cinemas.

Mayotte and French Guiana are orange as well.

[Tamas]

From Monday, up to six people will be able to meet outside, providing members of different households continue to stay two metres apart.

This will be allowed in gardens and other private outdoor spaces, he says. Members of different households must still observe social distancing.

This will allow people to see both parents at once or both grandparents at once, he adds.

Turns out we are only about 60 days behind whats allowed for Dominic Cummings so really not sure what's the fuss about.

[Richard Hakluyt]

From Monday, up to six people will be able to meet outside, providing members of different households continue to stay two metres apart.

This will be allowed in gardens and other private outdoor spaces, he says. Members of different households must still observe social distancing.

This will allow people to see both parents at once or both grandparents at once, he adds.

Turns out we are only about 60 days behind whats allowed for Dominic Cummings so really not sure what's the fuss about.

That is a very handy change from my point of view. My eldest son will have his birthday in a few days time; now we will be able to celebrate with my mother-in-law in her garden. She is all of 5 minutes walk away but not being Cummings our interactions have been restricted to zoom, phonecalls, whatsapp and so on.

[Sheilbh]

I see Johnson won't let Vallance or Whitty answer questions on Cummings to "protect them from an unfair and unnecessary attempt to ask a political question".

[Zanza]

Apparently similar observation in Denmark - and these are countries with extensive testing.

The basic trajectory is similar in most central European countries, but Switzerland has the highest peak and now the biggest reduction :

[crazy canuck]

Percentage of infections still only in single digits.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

[The Brain]

Idjits still just under triple digits.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Boston was cancelled for the first time ever. 

[The Brain]

Boston was cancelled for the first time ever. 

Please tell me Baltimore will be cancelled.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Boston was cancelled for the first time ever. 

Please tell me Baltimore will be cancelled.

So far no changes.
I'm hoping that MCM won't be cancelled too. Though I would understand if it is.