Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Zoupa]

I would think an accountant would place a higher emphasis on accurate, or even truthful, data collection.

[DGuller]

I would think an accountant would place a higher emphasis on accurate, or even truthful, data collection.

Actuaries even more so, why would you think I'm not?  If you have any connections to get truthful data, by all means do so, and please share with me once you get it, I would be very interested in taking a look. 

The numbers I have available to me cannot at this point in time be used to show "hey, Georgia, look, you've fucked up".  This is why I said that the only viable to argument to make is to argue that the official numbers are bogus.  Posting charts of bogus numbers doesn't appear to me to be a viable argument, unless these charts give off forensic traces of doctoring.

[viper37]

I would think an accountant would place a higher emphasis on accurate, or even truthful, data collection.

Not really.  Remember Enron?

[Razgovory]

I would think an accountant would place a higher emphasis on accurate, or even truthful, data collection.

Not really.  Remember Enron?

Arthur Anderson.

[Sheilbh]

Only just found out a significant part of the UK's test and trace program is being run by Serco. We're doomed

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/28/uk-coronavirus-live-test-and-trace-gets-under-way-in-england-and-scotland?page=with:block-5ecf76388f0898700351db3e#block-5ecf76388f0898700351db3e

The 10th weekly Clap for Carers event may be the last, after the woman behind the idea said she will no longer take part.

Millions of people across the UK have lined their thresholds, gathered – while socially distancing – on pavements, and stood in their gardens at 8pm every Thursday to demonstrate their support for care staff and frontline workers.

But the ritual has been criticised by some for becoming "politicised", while others, including NHS staff, have said some people who take part in the clap then wilfully ignore the plea to stay at home and avoid gatherings in an effort to ease the strain on the healthcare system.

The Metropolitan police commissioner, Dame Cressida Dick, was filmed leading dozens of officers in the weekly applause for key workers on a crowded Westminster Bridge.

Annemarie Plas, 36, last week told the PA news agency she had no problem with people continuing to gather at 8pm each week to clap, but said she will not be among those taking part in future.

She said: "To have the most impact I think it is good to stop it at its peak.

"Without getting too political, I share some of the opinions that some people have about it becoming politicised.

"I think the narrative is starting to change and I don't want the clap to be negative."

Plas, from Streatham in south London, told ITV's Good Morning Britain she will clap on Thursday evening, and will return outside at the same time next week to "check in" with her community, without applauding.

[The Brain]

I don't want the clap to be negative

You and me both.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/28/uk-coronavirus-live-test-and-trace-gets-under-way-in-england-and-scotland?page=with:block-5ecfa3ab8f087e3ca0f65018#block-5ecfa3ab8f087e3ca0f65018

The prime minister's most senior adviser did breach lockdown rules when he made the 50-mile trip to Barnard Castle, an investigation by Durham police has reportedly found.

Dominic Cummings claimed he made the journey on 12 April – Easter Sunday and his wife's birthday – with his wife and four-year-old son to check his eyesight was sound before travelling back to London.

He has maintained that he acted "lawfully and reasonably" when he journeyed 264 miles north to self-isolate on his parent's farm in County Durham at the end of March, at the height of the pandemic.

The Telegraph (paywall) reports that the Durham Police investigation has concluded that this was a minor breach of the guidelines that did not warrant any further action.

More on this story to follow.

[Tamas]

Also they have ruled that it was ok to cross the country to self-isolate.

which is kind of funny considering how they specifically told people not to travel to their second homes.

Oh well, hopefully it has registered with a lot of people how ridiculous it was for this character and Johnson to pose as anti-elite champions.

[Eddie Teach]

Also they have ruled that it was ok to cross the country to self-isolate.

which is kind of funny considering how they specifically told people not to travel to their second homes.

Were the Durham Police "they" in your second line? 

[Sheilbh]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/28/uk-coronavirus-live-test-and-trace-gets-under-way-in-england-and-scotland?page=with:block-5ecfa3ab8f087e3ca0f65018#block-5ecfa3ab8f087e3ca0f65018

The prime minister's most senior adviser did breach lockdown rules when he made the 50-mile trip to Barnard Castle, an investigation by Durham police has reportedly found.

Dominic Cummings claimed he made the journey on 12 April – Easter Sunday and his wife's birthday – with his wife and four-year-old son to check his eyesight was sound before travelling back to London.

He has maintained that he acted "lawfully and reasonably" when he journeyed 264 miles north to self-isolate on his parent's farm in County Durham at the end of March, at the height of the pandemic.

The Telegraph (paywall) reports that the Durham Police investigation has concluded that this was a minor breach of the guidelines that did not warrant any further action.

More on this story to follow.

I mean FFS Durham Police. The PM couldn't be clearer: the entire country wants to "move on"

[Tamas]

Was driving a bit around lunchtime in an industrial estate. Traffic seems to be back to almost normal levels, and people keep MAYBE 1 meter distance, probably less. Once the stores open we'll be back to normal.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting thread on Twitter by an expert:

Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois
The lack of a resurgence in #COVID19 cases following the easing of lockdowns in several countries is intriguing. I'll take Switzerland as an example. The lockdown ended on May 11 (schools/restaurants opened). Yet this did not translate in any increase in new cases so far.
(1/6)

There are some residual 'social distancing' measures in place, which are not particularly strongly enforced and life is essentially back to the 'old normal. So why did the epidemic not resume? I can think of three non-mutually exclusive speculators reasons.
(2/6)
1. 'Residual social distancing': People may still be behaving in ways limiting viral transmission. This feels unlikely as the main explanation for Switzerland at least, where life is essentially back to normal and hardly anyone wears a mask.
2. Seasonality: The other endemic coronaviruses causing 'common colds' are highly seasonal with a marked peak in winter. Thus, if #SARSCoV2 transmission were similarly seasonal the #COVID19 epidemic may be slowed by the current summer weather.
(4/6)

3. 'Cross-immunisation': A proportion of the population might have pre-existing immunity to #SARSCoV2 , potentially due to prior exposure to 'common cold' coronaviruses. Under such a scenario, only a fraction of the population could be infected by the virus at this stage.
(5/6)
'Residual social distancing' and 'seasonality' both likely contributed to the lack of resurgence of #COVID19 after the easing of lockdowns. 'Cross-immunisation' is a 'wilder' hypothesis but might explain some intriguing observations (e.g. no transmission between spouses).
(6/6)

Apparently similar observation in Denmark - and these are countries with extensive testing.

[Sheilbh]

Was driving a bit around lunchtime in an industrial estate. Traffic seems to be back to almost normal levels, and people keep MAYBE 1 meter distance, probably less. Once the stores open we'll be back to normal.

Yes. Thankfully I, for one, am 100% reassured that the recent slew of announcements around various lockdown-lifting measures and the launch of track and trace a week early is not at all being driven by a desire to distract everyone's attention and save a senior advisor.

Meanwhile, the Daily Star had today's Page 3 girl wearing a Dominic Cummings mask which is the stuff of nightmares

[Tamas]

Was driving a bit around lunchtime in an industrial estate. Traffic seems to be back to almost normal levels, and people keep MAYBE 1 meter distance, probably less. Once the stores open we'll be back to normal.

Yes. Thankfully I, for one, am 100% reassured that the recent slew of announcements around various lockdown-lifting measures and the launch of track and trace a week early is not at all being driven by a desire to distract everyone's attention and save a senior advisor.

Meanwhile, the Daily Star had today's Page 3 girl wearing a Dominic Cummings mask which is the stuff of nightmares

Yeah yesterday they even hinted at opening the pubs when we don't even have tracing on and stores are closed.