Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Zanza]

About 50 of Germany's 401 districts had no new infections in the last week, about 220 districts had less than 5 new infections per 100,000 persons. Only a handful of districts are currently considered critical, with more than 50 new infections per 100,000 persons in the last week. R0 and the "7-day-R" value are both below 1. Currently looks like they can manage it.

[Tamas]

About 50 of Germany's 401 districts had no new infections in the last week, about 220 districts had less than 5 new infections per 100,000 persons. Only a handful of districts are currently considered critical, with more than 50 new infections per 100,000 persons in the last week. R0 and the "7-day-R" value are both below 1. Currently looks like they can manage it.

And IIRC there would be local district lockdowns as needed right?

It is  getting embarrassing that Germany have such a system in place while we have... Well, nothing, really.

[Zanza]

Yes, but so far they did not do any of those district lockdowns. The administrative head of these districts is democratically elected and has some discretion in their actions including lockdown, unless overruled by a state government. The worst hit districts are in Bavaria and Thuringia now. They sent additional test and contact tracing teams there and widely conducted tests of all contacts regardless of symptoms.  So far, that seems sufficient. 

We have localized outbreaks in meatpacking and parcel logistics plants in recent days though.

[merithyn]

Oregon judge negated our governor's lockdown extension. She's filing an immediate appeal, but for right now, legally speaking, everything is open.



I'm staying home.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/18/judge-tosses-coronavirus-restrictions-by-oregon-governor-265440

A county judge has declared Oregon Gov. Kate Brown's coronavirus restrictions "null and void" because she didn't have her emergency orders approved by the Legislature.

Baker County Circuit Judge Matthew Shirtcliff made the ruling Monday in a lawsuit brought by churches that had sued saying the social-distancing directives were unconstitutional.

The suit had also argued that emergency powers only last for a month and after that Brown would have needed legislative approval. The judge agreed.

Brown said she would immediately appeal the ruling to the state Supreme Court to try to keep the emergency orders in effect.

"This will ensure we can continue to safeguard the health of all Oregonians — including frontline health care workers, those living in nursing homes, workers in agriculture and food processing plants, and Oregonians with underlying health conditions –– while the legal process moves forward," Brown said.

Ray Hacke, the attorney who represented the plaintiffs in the case, said in a phone interview Monday the ruling invalidates Brown's ban on churches gathering for worship but also the entire stay-at-home order, Hacke said.

Common Sense intervened after the Sacramento-based Pacific Justice Institute filed the case earlier this month on behalf of Oregon businesses, expanding the scope, he said.

"The stay-at-home order is no longer in effect. It is invalidated. If people want to get their haircut, they can. They can leave their home for any reason whether it's deemed essential in the eye of the state or not," he said.

He added that the ruling was a vindication not just for freedom of religion, but for all Oregonians' freedoms.

"Praise God. I'm excited, and I'm glad that the judge saw that there are limitations on the governor's power, even in the midst of emergencies," he said.

Shirtcliff, the judge, was the district attorney of Baker County from 2001 until Brown appointed him judge last September, with the appointment having taken effect on Nov. 1.

[Duque de Bragança]

Yes, but so far they did not do any of those district lockdowns. The administrative head of these districts is democratically elected and has some discretion in their actions including lockdown, unless overruled by a state government. The worst hit districts are in Bavaria and Thuringia now. They sent additional test and contact tracing teams there and widely conducted tests of all contacts regardless of symptoms.  So far, that seems sufficient. 

We have localized outbreaks in meatpacking and parcel logistics plants in recent days though.

Localised outbreaks in meatpacking plants in France too, hardly surprising considering the working conditions.

[alfred russel]

Remember how I told you guys the excessive lockdown stuff was going to backfire? I don't want to say I told you so, but....

Ahead of a lockdown protest scheduled in Georgia, the governor has announced that gyms, bowling alleys, salons, massage parlors, and some other stuff can open by Friday, and by Monday we are reopening restaurants.

How is the idiocy of the Governor of Georgia attributable to excessive lockdown measures? Seems the culprit here is his own stupidity.

So it is now almost a month since businesses were allowed to reopen. The decision got a lot of coverage--Malthus was one of the gentler ones when he ascribed idiocy to the Governor of Georgia. I was critical of the general state response too. The Atlantic ran an article titled "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice".

There are currently 1,010 covid-19 hospitalizations (as of 5/17). As of 5/9, it was 1,203 and on 5/1 (when the state began reporting) 1,500. Data has to be searched to found, here (the news article has the data from prior to today):

https://gema.georgia.gov/emergencies-0/coronavirus
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/kemp-touts-lowered-covid-19-hospitalization-rates/85-db6fccd7-ca7c-47c5-b204-652457147b09

There is a lot of other data but it is pointing in a consistent direction--the situation post reopen is still improving. Which seems like good news worthy of at least as much reporting as the initial decision. Whereever we go from here, it does seem a middle ground of allowing businesses to open--even high touch ones like massage parlors--with protective policies in place.

[DGuller]

I probably said this before, but I think it's entirely possible that awareness and common sense preventative measures on their own are enough to drive R0 down to below 1, after you break the back of exponential growth.

[Sheilbh]

About 50 of Germany's 401 districts had no new infections in the last week, about 220 districts had less than 5 new infections per 100,000 persons. Only a handful of districts are currently considered critical, with more than 50 new infections per 100,000 persons in the last week. R0 and the "7-day-R" value are both below 1. Currently looks like they can manage it.

And IIRC there would be local district lockdowns as needed right?

It is  getting embarrassing that Germany have such a system in place while we have... Well, nothing, really.

I mean nothing's a stretch. We've now got testing at a similar level per capita as Germany, which people with symptoms can request (I think the first community testing since March). I also understand 17,000 people have been hired for the contact tracing the last 1,000 will be hired this week and, I think, the intention is that they'll be trained and able to work by start of June (again similar on a per capita as the German average - lots of variation between states). That should, in theory, be sufficient for contact tracing and also monitoring the R.

The other bit is the national survey that ONS is running every week to identify how many peole have it, which should give an idea of the prevalence.

I still worry that we're going for too centralised an approach and I worry about implementation, but it feels like the tools or the system is in place. With the testing we can see the numbers, but I also feel like, based on the lack of news coverage, the government's managed at last to get on top of PPE issues as well.

[katmai]

Eh Dorsey? https://www.businessinsider.com/reopening-georgia-coronavirus-case-data-lag-2020-5

[PDH]

It is amazing how few Russians have officially died of the coronavirus.  They are patriotic enough to die from the flu, or cancer, or falling out of windows rather than the covid.

[Zanza]

We've now got testing at a similar level per capita as Germany, which people with symptoms can request (I think the first community testing since March).

Germany is now testing at less than 50% of possible capacity now, but the ratio of positive tests is also constantly falling. Quite a few persons I know have been tested now, often without any symptoms just because of contacts or as precaution.

[Zoupa]

Eh Dorsey? https://www.businessinsider.com/reopening-georgia-coronavirus-case-data-lag-2020-5

Let's not forget
https://www.businessinsider.com/graph-shows-georgia-bungling-coronavirus-data-2020-5]

[Sheilbh]

UK excess deaths up to 8 May:

Worth noting there were probably an additional 3,000 deaths that weren't registered on Friday 8 May because it was a bank holiday, according to the ONS guy. So it was probably around 15,000.

Strikingly the number of excess deaths in hopitals in the week to 8 May was actually below average. Deaths in care homes were about 2,000 above average and in homes about 1,000 above average, but both are falling.

From what I understand around a quarter of the excess mortality isn't covid related, but I think people are starting to look into the other excess deaths. There's a suspicion that some of this is that covid was present but not obvious to the certifying physician, but the main reason seems to be disrupted regular healthcare. For some reason covid is worse for elderly men, but the "other" excess deaths seem particularly high in elderly women (especially over 90s) - I suppose this could just be because they are probably quite likely to rely on regular healthcare treatment or more likely to need A&E?

Also some economic indicators - people claiming unemployment benefits in April:


Collapse in vacancies too, obviously.

Edit: Interesting chart on the peaks:

Basically we managed to protect the NHS but failed to protect care homes anywhere near enough - it is striking as I remember us raising care homes as a risk here in Jan/Feb.

In normal times hospitals are the location of just under 50% of deaths and the care homes and homes are both the location of just under 25% each. So the "proportion" looks normal between hospitals and homes, but it looks almost like we basically had a second, later, bigger wave in care homes.

Edit: Ooops - link to latest update (also looks like the ONS are developing an open data tool allowing people to extract the specifics they want which might lead to some interesting views of stuff):
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending8may2020

[alfred russel]

Eh Dorsey? https://www.businessinsider.com/reopening-georgia-coronavirus-case-data-lag-2020-5

Let's not forget
https://www.businessinsider.com/graph-shows-georgia-bungling-coronavirus-data-2020-5]

The state of Georgia is incompetent at every level. I'm not surprised there are issues in the data it is putting out, but it is putting out a lot of statistics at a county level and there are multiple state departments involved in collecting and publishing the data. Currently, almost all metrics are positive: testing up, cases down, ventilator use down, hospitalizations down.

The controversial order (that got international headlines) to reopen most businesses including tattoo shops and massage parlors was effective April 24. The order to allow restaurants to reopen for indoor dining was effective April 26. The stay at home order expired April 30. The two week incubation period is over for all of those changes. This is what cases look like in Georgia (the last 14 days of data is lightly shaded as it is provisional as new cases can be detected from that period--the case date is based on the probable date of infection):



Here are the revised projections from the IHME (the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation founded by the Gates Foundation and at the University of Washington):

[viper37]

Remember how I told you guys the excessive lockdown stuff was going to backfire? I don't want to say I told you so, but....

Ahead of a lockdown protest scheduled in Georgia, the governor has announced that gyms, bowling alleys, salons, massage parlors, and some other stuff can open by Friday, and by Monday we are reopening restaurants.

How is the idiocy of the Governor of Georgia attributable to excessive lockdown measures? Seems the culprit here is his own stupidity.

So it is now almost a month since businesses were allowed to reopen. The decision got a lot of coverage--Malthus was one of the gentler ones when he ascribed idiocy to the Governor of Georgia. I was critical of the general state response too. The Atlantic ran an article titled "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice".

There are currently 1,010 covid-19 hospitalizations (as of 5/17). As of 5/9, it was 1,203 and on 5/1 (when the state began reporting) 1,500. Data has to be searched to found, here (the news article has the data from prior to today):

https://gema.georgia.gov/emergencies-0/coronavirus
https://www.11alive.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/kemp-touts-lowered-covid-19-hospitalization-rates/85-db6fccd7-ca7c-47c5-b204-652457147b09

There is a lot of other data but it is pointing in a consistent direction--the situation post reopen is still improving. Which seems like good news worthy of at least as much reporting as the initial decision. Whereever we go from here, it does seem a middle ground of allowing businesses to open--even high touch ones like massage parlors--with protective policies in place.

Speaking of Georgia...
In Georgia, by decree of the Governor, the day afther Thursday is Sunday<

But on closer inspection, the dates on the chart showed a curious ordering: April 30 was followed by May 4; May 5 was followed by May 2, which was followed by May 7 — which in turn was followed by April 26. The dates had been re-sorted to create the illusion of a decline. The five counties were likewise re-sorted on each day to enhance the illusion.

Very interesting that you'd pick Georgia for an example...

And the White House appears to be preparing mass-production of the sort of deception Georgia has attempted. It forced the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to shelve guidelines for the reopening. And now, the Daily Beast reports, Trump, task force coordinator Deborah Birx and others are trying to force the CDC to revise downward its official death toll. Though the official count is almost certainly an undercount, the president seems to think that a lot of people who appear to die from coronavirus are actually "killed by other unnatural means, such as falling down a flight of stairs."Apparently Trump would have us believe the 2020 stair-falling season has been unusually severe.

And it seems the US will be just like Georgia soon.  You'll be happy