Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Valmy]

Well he lives in Georgia

[Iormlund]

I probably said this before, but I think it's entirely possible that awareness and common sense preventative measures on their own are enough to drive R0 down to below 1, after you break the back of exponential growth.

That and longer days (more UV light). I don't know if we're below 1, but if numbers are low enough even slightly above 1 can work out until we find a way to deal with it.

[Sheilbh]

The state of Georgia is incompetent at every level. I'm not surprised there are issues in the data it is putting out, but it is putting out a lot of statistics at a county level and there are multiple state departments involved in collecting and publishing the data. Currently, almost all metrics are positive: testing up, cases down, ventilator use down, hospitalizations down.

The controversial order (that got international headlines) to reopen most businesses including tattoo shops and massage parlors was effective April 24. The order to allow restaurants to reopen for indoor dining was effective April 26. The stay at home order expired April 30. The two week incubation period is over for all of those changes. This is what cases look like in Georgia (the last 14 days of data is lightly shaded as it is provisional as new cases can be detected from that period--the case date is based on the probable date of infection):

That's good - I mean ventilators and hospitalisations (and deaths) will be very much lagging indicators. The thing that would interest me is information on how people are behaving - so just looking at some of the "non-lockdown" jurisdictions on CityMapper: Stockholm's mobility is about 35% of normal, so is Seoul and other similar cities. My theory is that people's behaviour won't "snap back" and even reporters noticing how busy places out of lockdown are will, probably without realising it, be comparing that with lockdown not a normal May day. People started changing their behaviour before they were ordered and they will change their behaviour after they're allowed to go back to "normal", but I query for how long. It'd be interesting to see how much Georgia is back to normal and how much people are still reducing their interactions, working from home, not travelling etc.

It'll be interesting because I think there are states in the US - possibly like Georgia - that weren't on a clear, prolonged downward trend when they lifted lockdown (that's been the norm in Europe). Also there are some odd choices being made around the locations that have re-opened - the US seems far more panicked about schools than Europe for example. But I don't think this means they'll automatically end up back on an exponential growth, some will probably drift up, some will plateau and some will drift down - not least because I don't think people will return to "normal" quickly.

But there will be outbreaks and the challenge will be identifying and containing them, before they lead to wider community transmission and then back to exponential growth and lockdown. So we've seen this in South Korea where they recently had one guy in a club infecting, I think, 90 other people (again - AC is a risk). South Korea was pretty successful in identifying that early, testing people who were exposed and getting them isolated so that outbreak was contained. But I feel like if you don't have that mechanism then I'm not sure how you can manage the outbreaks that will come.

It's why in the UK, I'd want to know the testing and contact tracing is in place (which is happening now) before lockdown is lifted.

[crazy canuck]

Today is the official start of our reopening.  Although lots of businesses won't be in a position to open of for some time while they put mitigation measures in place.

[viper37]

Well he lives in Georgia

I forgot that  Thought it was NC.

[viper37]

Today is the official start of our reopening.  Although lots of businesses won't be in a position to open of for some time while they put mitigation measures in place.

Shopping centers are still closed here.  Had an exam at a private clinic, inside a shopping mall last week.  Never felt so good walking into a mall, no one to bother me, no excessive heat... ah, if it could always be like that! 

[Eddie Teach]

Well he lives in Georgia

It's a nice place. 

[Syt]

Well he lives in Georgia

It's a nice place. 

Psellus loves it.

[The Brain]

Stalin couldn't wait to GTFO.

[alfred russel]

That's good - I mean ventilators and hospitalisations (and deaths) will be very much lagging indicators.

We are now 3+ weeks out from the last wave of businesses being allowed to reopen and 19 days out from the end of the stay at home order. Cases are lagging but they should be in by now and we should have a trend of a minimum of 5 days (and really more than 10 considering the business reopens).

Hospitalizations would probably lag cases but not by so much. People can linger on ventilators for a while--so that is more lagging.

The thing that would interest me is information on how people are behaving - so just looking at some of the "non-lockdown" jurisdictions on CityMapper: Stockholm's mobility is about 35% of normal, so is Seoul and other similar cities. My theory is that people's behaviour won't "snap back" and even reporters noticing how busy places out of lockdown are will, probably without realising it, be comparing that with lockdown not a normal May day. People started changing their behaviour before they were ordered and they will change their behaviour after they're allowed to go back to "normal", but I query for how long. It'd be interesting to see how much Georgia is back to normal and how much people are still reducing their interactions, working from home, not travelling etc.

It'll be interesting because I think there are states in the US - possibly like Georgia - that weren't on a clear, prolonged downward trend when they lifted lockdown (that's been the norm in Europe). Also there are some odd choices being made around the locations that have re-opened - the US seems far more panicked about schools than Europe for example. But I don't think this means they'll automatically end up back on an exponential growth, some will probably drift up, some will plateau and some will drift down - not least because I don't think people will return to "normal" quickly.

But there will be outbreaks and the challenge will be identifying and containing them, before they lead to wider community transmission and then back to exponential growth and lockdown. So we've seen this in South Korea where they recently had one guy in a club infecting, I think, 90 other people (again - AC is a risk). South Korea was pretty successful in identifying that early, testing people who were exposed and getting them isolated so that outbreak was contained. But I feel like if you don't have that mechanism then I'm not sure how you can manage the outbreaks that will come.

It's why in the UK, I'd want to know the testing and contact tracing is in place (which is happening now) before lockdown is lifted.

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-05-09_US_Georgia_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

Versus baseline (before Covid):
Retail and Recreation: -17%
Grocery and Pharmacy: +11%
Parks: +29%
Transit Stations: -35%
Workplaces: -21%
Residential +7%

My sense is that people are going to keep pushing the boundaries until cases go back up. For example, religious services are resuming--taking the catholic archdiocese--probably a good barometer and the single largest unified approach: they are resuming services next week, no masks required, communion to be served, but not drinking from chalice. Single file for communion, and seating every other pew. People asked not to sing but follow along in song book, no touching in the peace part of the service. Seems a bit lax.

[The Brain]

"No touching" in a Catholic church? GL with that.

[mongers]

After another 'slow' Monday, the UK is again back to recording daily deaths in the 400-600 range; and yet we continue to relax the lockdown. 

[Admiral Yi]

After another 'slow' Monday, the UK is again back to recording daily deaths in the 400-600 range; and yet we continue to relax the lockdown. 

What do you think would be an appropriate death toll at which to begin easing the lock down?  Honest question.

[Monoriu]

After another 'slow' Monday, the UK is again back to recording daily deaths in the 400-600 range; and yet we continue to relax the lockdown. 

What do you think would be an appropriate death toll at which to begin easing the lock down?  Honest question.

Hong Kong's death toll has been at exactly zero for many months.  We are reopening schools and beaches soon. 

[Legbiter]

I was asked to participate in an antibody study to map the spread of this bug run by the same private company that runs all the free testing for the country. I'm getting tested on Friday. I'd be very surprised if I test positive but I'll keep you updated because now I'm quite curious.