Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Valmy]

It looks like next month we are experimenting with opening things up. God save Texas.

[Berkut]

DG pointing out a mathematical issue isn't him claiming that the pandemic is no biggie.

It isn't a mathematical issue, its a point of conjecture masquerading as mathematical certainty worthy of Fox News.  The mortality rate in the US is currently above 4% and may states in your country are going to get worse because of premature openings.

You say it isn't a mathematical issue, and then state a mathematical fact as a certainty that absolutely requires knowledge that we definitely do not yet have?

Huh?

[Tamas]

We are tracking at just under 500 unemployed claims for every covid 19 death.

oh FFS why do I still bother reading your posts.

[mongers]

It's getting awfully near to Putin:

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin tells Putin he has coronavirus

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that he had been diagnosed with the new coronavirus and was temporarily stepping down to recover.

Source:Reuters.

[merithyn]

We are tracking at just under 500 unemployed claims for every covid 19 death.

oh FFS why do I still bother reading your posts.

Because there isn't a block function. Believe me, I've looked.....

[mongers]

At the heart of this debate is the tension between the individual and collective in Western democracy.

No surprise some are having difficulty 'curbing' their individual aspirations set against the need for collective action to 'defeat' a common enemy.

I guess we might live and learn, though maybe the urge to go back to the old normal will be too strong?

[Zoupa]

I don't see how the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids. In Sweden schools for grades 1-9 have remained open, and so far we have (thank God) not a single Covid-19 death among the under-20s.

Absolutely no one said that the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids.

Could it be exhibit #319712 of swedish humblebrag?

/yawn

CC did, see above.

Well, my bad then 

[PDH]

At the heart of this debate is the tension between the individual and collective in Western democracy.

No surprise some are having difficulty 'curbing' their individual aspirations set against the need for collective action to 'defeat' a common enemy.

I guess we might live and learn, though maybe the urge to go back to the old normal will be too strong?

It is encouraging to see that same spirit that helped overcome shortages, death, and destruction in World War 2 manifest itself so strongly again.

[viper37]

It seems like Canada has the US to thank for introducing this virus here:
Link

OTTAWA — The global COVID-19 pandemic began in Wuhan, China, but data from Canada's largest provinces show it was American travellers, not Chinese, who brought the deadly virus to our shores.

Despite this evidence, the federal government brought in travel restrictions on China first and American border restrictions were the last to be put in place. The National Post asked for data on the origins of travel-related cases in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta, the four provinces that have seen the majority of Canada's COVID-19 cases.

Canada moved later than many other countries to restrict international travel from China. It began with screening measures at airports that were slow to roll out and relied on passengers to disclose if they had symptoms of the virus. Air Canada suspended flights from China in February and the government encouraged people not to travel to China as early as January, but did not ban travellers until March 18 when it imposed sweeping global restrictions.

When those restrictions went into force virtually all international travel had ground to a halt. International visitors were barred from Canada and only Canadian citizens and permanent residents were allowed to return to the country.  The U.S. border remained an exception for several days, as the government coordinated a plan with the U.S. to keep essential goods flowing.

B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix was critical of that decision at the time because the government was leaving the U.S. border open to travellers. As an outbreak picked up speed in neighbouring Washington state, he was direct with Americans during a press conference   that he wanted them to stay out of his province.  "We remain concerned that access from visitors from the United States continues to be allowed," said. Dix. "It's our strong message that visitors from the United States not come to British Columbia."

As of April 17, Ontario has identified 1,201 cases of COVID-19 in people who had recently returned from some type of international travel. Of those cases, just five related to travel from China. By contrast, 404 were from people travelling from the United States.

The other top five destinations were the United Kingdom with 126 cases, cruise ships with 74 cases, Mexico with 68 and sunny Spain with 49 cases. Iran and Italy, two other hot spots for the virus, are also more heavily represented than China; travel from Iran was connected to 19 cases and there were seven cases from Italy.

In Quebec, 373 cases came from the United States and the province reports zero cases connected to travel from China. Travellers from France brought 151 cases to Quebec, 121 originated in Puerto Rico and 117 in Austria.

Alberta didn't have a complete breakdown of its travel cases, but had only a single case connected to China, while fully 36 per cent of its travel-related cases are from the United States. British Columbia was unable to provide a breakdown by country, but the province's data shows that, while its first cases were from travel, most came from spread within the community.  The U.S., U.K. and China were the top three destinations for travellers to Canada in 2018, according to data from Statistics Canada.

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, said they were responding to the information they had at the time and started with enhanced screening and self isolation orders.  "We instituted the enhanced screening focused initially on China and then as it moved into Europe and Iran," she said.  She said curbs on travel from Iran came before Iran was even reporting it had cases because the public health data in Canada made it clear there was a problem there.  She said it became clear in March the virus was everywhere, which was why the restrictions were stepped up so quickly.  "In March, we in very quick succession told people not to go on cruises, issued a global travel health notice, because you can't actually tell which country the virus will come from, followed by the succession of border measures," she said.  She said the work was difficult and required coordination among multiple government departments.

All of Canada's early cases came from travel, but overtime as travel restrictions came into force and the number of people visiting slowed to a trickle they have become a much smaller part of the picture.  In Ontario, for example, on April 1, there were 695 cases connected to travel and as of Monday 1,395 — almost double. But during the same time period the overall number of cases has increased roughly five-fold. 

The U.S. and several other countries closed borders to China in February. The U.S. also closed its border to many hot spots like Iran and Italy well before Canada did. "The Liberals decided not to impose mandatory screening at airports. They have decided not to impose mandatory quarantine procedures. They have decided not to implement any restrictions on travellers entering into Canada," he said in question period on March 12.  As of Wednesday however, the U.S. has more than a million cases of the virus, roughly twice the per capita number that Canada has, showing the limits of travel restrictions in a global pandemic.

Tam's deputy, Dr. Howard Njoo, said it would have been difficult to close the border in March to the United States or Europe with so few cases in Canada, but the virus was already spreading around the globe.  "The world is interconnected and really the virus was spreading throughout," he said.  He said the steps Canada did take were only part of the solution.  "If you look at border measures, they are only one measure, one layer, of a multi-system approach." Njoo said they also know now that the few cases Canada did get from China were Canadians returning home.

Is it time to impose sanctions on the US? Ask for a public investigastion in the containment of the epidemic? 
Oex has better be happy now with the time I spent correcting this weird formatting! 

[viper37]

For example, opioid addiction has killed about 35k a year since 2000, and for each 1% increase in unemployment there is a 3.6% increase in deaths. If that is true, then the 20% plus increase in unemployment we are going to experience will more than double deaths - an extra 35k. (is that true--probably not--whatever model was used to make the claim will almost certainly break down in the extreme scenario we are facing--but the point is there are other consequences).

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/04/joblessness-and-opioids/523281/

That study does not account for temporary layoffs.  Lumberjackers, farmers' aides, fishermen, construction workers, etc don't go on opiod when they enter the slow time of the year where they aren't working and are living of their unemployement benefits.
The study deals with the uncertainty of future income, i.e. a recession.  You know when you're laid off, but you have no idea if your company is going to survive the recession, you have no idea who would employ you at the same wage you are making now when there are massive layoffs due to a slowdown in demand.

Most people laid off while the businesses have shutdown will recover their jobs once the restrictions are lifted.  Some SMBs might not make it through, it's a fact.  But once the economy comes back in, they get back to work.  Say, someone like Berkut here, assuming he is currently totally unemployed and has a guarantee from his boss that there will be work to be done on the other side of this, do you really think he's gonna become a drug addict because he spent 1 month and a half at home? 

Can you see a difference between a GM employee laid off when the plant is permanently shutting down vs a GM employee temporary laid off for 4-6 weeks during a pandemic?

The cancellation of biopsies is reducing cancer diagnoses, patients aren't being seen in the office by doctors so if primary care has any impact on patient outcomes that will be a negative,

That is a problem with your healthcare system, not the pandemic.  Afaik, biopsies aren're cancelled here.  And I know for a fact that chemiotherapy is still occuring at the same frequency, should the patient desire it.

alcohol use is exploding,

Last I saw, there were conflicting data.  In any case, red wine is good for your heart, so that's a plus.

i'm sure depression and suicide will increase...

Why?  Because people have 4 week paid vacations at minimal wage?  You ever taught of commiting suicide when you stopped working for a few weeks?

Food security/nutrition has probably declined in many households,

There is no reason for this to happen.  Unless Donald hasn't signed your check because you're registered for the wrong party.  Again, a problem of governance in the US, but that's your party, and that's certainly what you wanted from your House Representative and your Senator, not only to undo everything Obama but to make sure there would be no entitlements like "free" healthcare, decent unemployement benefits, medical coverage while you're not working, lower tax rates for the super rich, more income tax for the middle class, lowly funded local schools, expensive college&universities, etc, etc.

You voted for this, you can't seriously complain people aren't getting the bare minimum you denied them.

domestic violence is way up,

Again, no reason for this.  Shelters are still open, same as usual.  If they didn't get adequate funding, that's a problem of governance, not a problem of pandemic.

education is just barely creaking along...

True.  Then again, the US isn't some 3rd world country, you have high speed internet in most places, and in other places teacher can communicate with parents to give assignments to the students.  My secretary was on the phone with her younger daughter's teacher this afternoon exactly for that.  Although she could have move her butt sooner since the schooboard gave freely accessible online resources for parents at the beginning of the pandemic.

Also, many schools here are able to offer online classes to the high school kids.  If yours can't, it's a problem of governance, not pandemic.  But since you support the Republican party's ideals of underfunded public schools (that's entitlement right here), it's has nothing to do with a pandemic.  5-6 weeks off can be rescheduled over the next years by adding a few hours of school to move faster than usual.  Saturday and Sunday school are also possible.  Lots of solutions do exists.

they myriad of ancillary costs to this will be studied for decades.

Sacrifice a little now for more benefits later.  The basics of finance.  Or have you forgotten it?
It's the same with climate change: sacrifice a little now or sacrifice a lot later.

If you don't do confinement, what happens?  Do you think the situation in Brazil is better than in the US with 5-6000 deaths now?  How are companies depending on these workers going to replace them?  I'm guessing the US also has a shortage of qualified labour force? If they are too sick to work for 45 days, what happens?  If they have mild symptoms do you ask them to keep working like in South Dakota until it can't be managed anymore or do you have them isolate home for 14 days?  What happens to a business productivity when they miss 40% of their labour force for 40-45 days? When 10% don't come back because they are 6ft under since they did not receive appropriate medical care in time?  Or do you entirely deny this disease is extremely contagious and can cause severe symptoms up to and including death?

[viper37]

We are tracking at just under 500 unemployed claims for every covid 19 death.

And if there were 500 deaths for each unemployed claims, you would find that a satisfactory measure?  What happens when someone can't breathe by himself, needs a ventilator but there are none available?

Whatever the unemployment rate is right now (hard to capture the data when collapse is virtually overnight), it is probably higher than any level since world war II, probably around 15% which is on par with 1931. Welcome to the Great Depression.

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506

If I remember my history well, that lead to a Democrat president, no?  Might not be such a bad price to pay to get rid of Trump...
Now let's be serious, from your link:The highest rate of U.S. unemployment was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression.1 Unemployment remained above 14% from 1931 to 1940. It remained in the single digits until September 1982 when it reached 10.1%.2 During the Great Recession, unemployment reached 10% in October 2009.
So, 24.9% in 1933, and above 14% for 9 years.  Then we had 10.1% in 1982 and 10% in 2009.  What was the rate last year?  Do you think suddenly all these banks with go massive layoffs?  GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc will be on the brink of bankruptcy and permantly layoff thousands of employees as they shift their business model?
True, things will not pick up quickly.  It'll be year until we can individually recover from this.  At least.  But our jobs will be back by next month at the same wages we had.  What won't change is the 2 month hole in our finances, so we likely won't spend as much on unnecessary things, like a new tv or a new car.  that's going to affect the economy by some measure.  We also may not go as often as we did to the local bar or to our favourite restaurants, we won't have any music shows until next winter and that's going to affect the tourist economy by a non marginal measure.

Now, imagine with no confinement anywhere in the world.  People are free to gather everywhere, people are free to travel everywhere, people are free to visit their parents/grand-parents and transmit them the disease they unknowingly carried.

What happens next?  Do sick people get richer?  Do dead elederlys bring montly revenues to LTCs?  Do dead teenagers/YA bring solace and comfort to their parents?  Do doctors come to work everyday with a smile on their face knowing all they will do is see people die around them? You think that New York ER doctor killed herself because she was told to socially/physically distance herself from her older parents?  Because she couldn't see Black Widow in theaters this Spring?  Or is it because the Supernatural series finale was delayed by a couple of months?
Be realistic.  You say you want to see all sides of the problem, yeild the positive and the negative outcomes, but you deliberatly ignore the negativity of doing nothing.
[/i]

[Eddie Teach]

But just think how much we'd save on social security by doing nothing!

[Razgovory]

It's getting awfully near to Putin:

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin tells Putin he has coronavirus

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that he had been diagnosed with the new coronavirus and was temporarily stepping down to recover.

Source:Reuters.

Not near enough!

[Razgovory]

So, a bunch of states will begin reopening business next week, are conservatives just going to pretend that the continued deaths aren't happening?

[Zoupa]

So, a bunch of states will begin reopening business next week, are conservatives just going to pretend that the continued deaths aren't happening?

Just do like De Santis in Florida and fudge the numbers. Call the journalists asking questions fake news. Easy peasy.