Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Legbiter]

It's something I saw someone post on Twitter that I kind of feel - that I don't like the Tories and I don't like Boris Johnson. I think he's morally unfit for office and that he's a lazy, cynical dilettante. But I keep end up defending him because on the other side on Twitter (and the Guardian very often) is just a knee-jerk leap to the most negative conclusion/position on everything because there's sort of a total worldview of criminal, almost evil, Tory fecklessness.

Yeah they're comparing him unfavorably to some fantasy Labour/Lib-Dem politician that doesn't actually exist. In that fantasy there's a competent, likable Labour PM and oh wow he's doing so much better handling this. It's just amusing to observe at this point.

[Tamas]

Intersting article here. Not really surprising. 99 per cent of Italy's fatalities, all had a previous condition

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?

That's fine, but, do I have a previous condition, for example? Surely not something bad enough for me to have noticed let alone diagnosed, but with all my family history my heart might already be not 100% where it should be. As such, knowing that you have to be not-well to die of it, doesn't make me feel much safer.

[The Brain]

Intersting article here. Not really surprising. 99 per cent of Italy's fatalities, all had a previous condition

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?

That's fine, but, do I have a previous condition, for example? Surely not something bad enough for me to have noticed let alone diagnosed, but with all my family history my heart might already be not 100% where it should be. As such, knowing that you have to be not-well to die of it, doesn't make me feel much safer.

You're rich in vitamin Beet.

[Tamas]

It's something I saw someone post on Twitter that I kind of feel - that I don't like the Tories and I don't like Boris Johnson. I think he's morally unfit for office and that he's a lazy, cynical dilettante. But I keep end up defending him because on the other side on Twitter (and the Guardian very often) is just a knee-jerk leap to the most negative conclusion/position on everything because there's sort of a total worldview of criminal, almost evil, Tory fecklessness.

Yeah they're comparing him unfavorably to some fantasy Labour/Lib-Dem politician that doesn't actually exist. In that fantasy there's a competent, likable Labour PM and oh wow he's doing so much better handling this. It's just amusing to observe at this point.

Our government have been assembled along two criteria: had to be a radical Brexiteer, and had to pose no threat of stealing limelight from Johnson. Based on that, the contained level of incompetence (lack of testing, but at least NHS capacity has not been breached) must be something to be happy for.

[Tamas]

Intersting article here. Not really surprising. 99 per cent of Italy's fatalities, all had a previous condition

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?

That's fine, but, do I have a previous condition, for example? Surely not something bad enough for me to have noticed let alone diagnosed, but with all my family history my heart might already be not 100% where it should be. As such, knowing that you have to be not-well to die of it, doesn't make me feel much safer.

You're rich in vitamin Beet.

[celedhring]

Intersting article here. Not really surprising. 99 per cent of Italy's fatalities, all had a previous condition

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?

High blood pressure is considered a "preexisting condition" that's like nearly 50% of the population right there. So that's actually a pointless stat.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah they're comparing him unfavorably to some fantasy Labour/Lib-Dem politician that doesn't actually exist. In that fantasy there's a competent, likable Labour PM and oh wow he's doing so much better handling this. It's just amusing to observe at this point.

We have a counterpoint in Nicola Sturgeon who my English friends all absolutely love from afar. She's had the same issues/made the same decisions on PPE, testing and overall strategy but has been far, far better on communications and transparency which really matter in a crisis.

[garbon]

Intersting article here. Not really surprising. 99 per cent of Italy's fatalities, all had a previous condition

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?

High blood pressure is considered a "preexisting condition" that's like nearly 50% of the population right there. So that's actually a pointless stat.

Yeah, the one I'm watching.

[Sheilbh]

Our government have been assembled along two criteria: had to be a radical Brexiteer, and had to pose no threat of stealing limelight from Johnson. Based on that, the contained level of incompetence (lack of testing, but at least NHS capacity has not been breached) must be something to be happy for.

One point about the politics of our situation is that Johnson is, by some distance, the most powerful PM we've had since Thatcher. He has a strong majority (unlike Major, Cameron, May) but also he purged his opponents back in September and there's no alternative faction he has to negotiate with (unlike Blair or Brown). I heard one writer say it's a bit like a court in Number 10 at the minute. Johnson likes lots of people around with lots of different views (including many non-Tories) arguing/putting their case about issues. And all of those people are kind of equals, he likes everyone to have a say - but they're all subordinate to him.

I think that means that for the last few weeks any sort-of strategic decision will have been put off until he recovered, unless essential in which case he'll have been consulted. So the "five tests" for ending lockdown I imagine were signed off by him, but that's partly why there's not been any public discussion of how lockdown ends. Otherwise we've been in a holding pattern.

But it is interesting/striking that you can see them putting the elements in place for a post-lockdown world. So a ramp-up in testing, NHSX launching this track and trace app in the next few weeks and training new contact tracers for the public health authorities - if all of those are in place (and that's a big if, given form on PPE and testing) then I can see a route to lifting lockdown and not having a huge second wave. But then I look at Singapore's numbers as the one that freaks me out because they have all of that and have still had a second wave other countries haven't: South Korea and Hong Kong and it would be interesting to know why.

I think there's been enough incompetence around - for me I'd point to PPE and testing as two big failures. I get the impression we are starting to get there on testing, I'm not sure we've ever fully managed PPE. On the flipside I think it is an impressive achievement that NHS surge capacity was never breached - again speaking to someone in the NHS they mentioned that one of the hospitals they worked in peaked at 99% ICU capacity which is terrifying (but there was spare capacity elsewhere in London).

[Sheilbh]

Intersting article here. Not really surprising. 99 per cent of Italy's fatalities, all had a previous condition

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?

High blood pressure is considered a "preexisting condition" that's like nearly 50% of the population right there. So that's actually a pointless stat.

Especially in the UK and the US as I think we have a far higher numbers of people with high blood pressure and diabetes which seem to be the two most common ones. Or are they just the most common because they're the most common "pre-existing conditions"?

[Legbiter]

Intersting article here. Not really surprising. 99 per cent of Italy's fatalities, all had a previous condition

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says?

High blood pressure is considered a "preexisting condition" that's like nearly 50% of the population right there. So that's actually a pointless stat.

Add in all the folks who are pre-diabetic or diabetic, obese and the smokers and you have a population that you don't want to catch this if at all possible.

[Sheilbh]

I think I mentioned before that I have some colleagues who do pro-bono for a domestic violence charity and they've seen a lot more work since lockdown began. Just been sent an email from the charity that even with the pro-bono help they get from a lot of law firms they are totally "overwhelmed" at the minute. The rise in domestic violence and child abuse (there's been a big increase in calls to child safeguarding lines too) are sone of the really awful bits of I suppose "collateral damage" from this lockdown.

I normally spend my time on other pro-bono work but obviously I've offered to help out on the domestic violence work too at the minute as it sounds like they need all the help they can get

[celedhring]

Thought this gallery in The Guardian was cute.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2020/apr/27/running-free-spanish-children-released-from-lockdown-in-pictures

[Legbiter]

We have a counterpoint in Nicola Sturgeon who my English friends all absolutely love from afar. She's had the same issues/made the same decisions on PPE, testing and overall strategy but has been far, far better on communications and transparency which really matter in a crisis.

Subspecies of my argument. Even Boris got a bump in popularity although let's see how popular our leaders are after 3 months of Depression.  The UK opposition is currently such a dumpster fire of unlikable nonentities that it seems not unlikely you'll have de facto One Nation Tory majority for the next decade.

[The Larch]

Thought this gallery in The Guardian was cute.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2020/apr/27/running-free-spanish-children-released-from-lockdown-in-pictures

As usual in foreign media, Spain is just Madrid + the Mediterranean coast.