Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Josquius]

Looking at graphs again, as you do. Good news for many, but Spains improvement seems to have stuttered and stopped with things back to getting worse at a quick rate again. What happened there?

[Sheilbh]

One thing I did not follow for a month was daily new cases, and I had no idea how high it was three weeks ago and still how high it is. Feels uncanny that with this lockdown going on we can have about 4000 new cases a day:

Sick people in quarantine infecting their family members. Very common here in the beginning because we're mostly not removing confirmed cases away from the household. Uninfected family members then have to take care of their sick loved ones.

Yeah it was a huge issue in China too. It's why I query if lockdown is the best solution for everywhere, especially countries with common multi-generational households.

[DGuller]

Wasn't it less of an issue in China?  If I understand correctly, if you were suspected of being sick in China, you weren't staying home.

[Sheilbh]

Wasn't it less of an issue in China?  If I understand correctly, if you were suspected of being sick in China, you weren't staying home.

I think they changed because of the family transmission in Wuhan. Initially it was household lockdown which increases the transmission within a household and that was a very big driver in Wuhan initially.

[celedhring]

Looking at graphs again, as you do. Good news for many, but Spains improvement seems to have stuttered and stopped with things back to getting worse at a quick rate again. What happened there?

We've doubled testing #s compared to the peak.

[DGuller]

Yeah, you have to look at both the number of positive tests and the number of total tests.  There isn't a simple relationship between number of positive tests and percent positive, but in general high percent positive implies more severe undercounting.

[celedhring]

Yeah, you have to look at both the number of positive tests and the number of total tests.  There isn't a simple relationship between number of positive tests and percent positive, but in general high percent positive implies more severe undercounting.

On that regard, we've brought down the % of positive tests to around 5%. It was around 30% during the peak.

We'll see what happens in the coming weeks with the relaxing of the lockdown. We can't keep it for much longer, but I'm worried about the effects.

[Iormlund]

We've also relaxed the lockdown recently for non-essential workers. So at least a slight increase in transmission rate would not surprise me.

[celedhring]

We've also relaxed the lockdown recently for non-essential workers. So at least a slight increase in transmission rate would not surprise me.

Nah, if there's an effect it's still too early to show up.

[Iormlund]

We've also relaxed the lockdown recently for non-essential workers. So at least a slight increase in transmission rate would not surprise me.

Nah, if there's an effect it's still too early to show up.

Hasn't it been almost 2 weeks already? Or just one? Time passes funnily these days.

[celedhring]

We've also relaxed the lockdown recently for non-essential workers. So at least a slight increase in transmission rate would not surprise me.

Nah, if there's an effect it's still too early to show up.

Hasn't it been almost 2 weeks already? Or just one? Time passes funnily these days.

Exactly two weeks. That's when most people start developing symptoms bad enough to show up at the hospital.

[Syt]

[Josquius]

I miss that kind of crazy.

[celedhring]

Best part is that it doesn't even add up to 19 

[Eddie Teach]

Ronald Wilson Reagan = 666