Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Razgovory]

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Question: Why isn't Dr. Oz being beaten in the streets?

[Legbiter]

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Yeah sure if the Lancet article talking about schools being open would only increase the total case fatality rate in a country by 2-3% then that's maybe an acceptable tradeoff. That's a conscious choice that's been made here as well, schools are on shortened, staggered schedules but not closed. Secondary schools and universities are closed completely though. Kids don't really catch it that much, much less have complications from it. Probably the only good thing one can say about this virus. Just keep them away from grandparents.

[Monoriu]

In Santa Cruz all the shut ins celebrate each afternoon at 4:20.

Of course, they also celebrate throughout the rest of the day as well.

Luckily we don't have these things over here. 

[Legbiter]

I went and found the article.

188 countries have implemented country-wide school closures, but a modelling study by Ferguson and colleagues concluded that in the UK, school closures alone will reduce COVID-19 deaths by only 2–4%. Most evidence for school closures has come from influenza outbreaks such as the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in which children were disproportionately affected. During that time, the US closed 700 schools but the response was local and only for a couple of weeks. To tackle COVID-19, Chinese schools have been closed for more than 2 months, and many countries have closed their schools and colleges indefinitely.

...A systematic review by Russell Viner and colleagues, published on April 6, assessed findings from 16 studies looking at the effects of school closures on coronavirus outbreaks in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. They found limited benefit on slowing the spread of the virus, and the authors stress that closures must be considered within the wider context of loss of essential workers due to childcare demands, restrictions in learning, socialising, and physical activity for pupils, and the substantial risks to the most vulnerable children, including those in low-income settings. Following school closures amidst the west African Ebola epidemic, rates of child labour, neglect, sexual abuse, and adolescent pregnancies spiked, and many children never returned to school.
Many children will suffer from a lack of access to school-provided social assistance, such as free lunches or clean water and washing facilities. Those engaged with school-facilitated health care, such as vaccinations and mental health services, may miss out on vital health provisions. Children confined at home will struggle to achieve the WHO 24 h movement behaviour guidelines which recommend 60 minutes a day of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for 5–17 year olds. This jeopardises not only young people's mental wellbeing and healthy weight status, but also increases the risk of establishing dangerous habits, such as increased screen time and snacking that can damage future cardiovascular and musculoskeletal health.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30105-X/fulltext

Yeah a classmate of mine in school, his parents were deadbeat drunks and school was his only off-time from the home. I didn't realize until years later why he never wanted us to play at his home, he was too ashamed.

[crazy canuck]

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Yeah sure if the Lancet article talking about schools being open would only increase the total case fatality rate in a country by 2-3% then that's maybe an acceptable tradeoff. That's a conscious choice that's been made here as well, schools are on shortened, staggered schedules but not closed. Secondary schools and universities are closed completely though. Kids don't really catch it that much, much less have complications from it. Probably the only good thing one can say about this virus. Just keep them away from grandparents.

Only about a couple million school kids dead in the US alone.  The conservative circle jerk of death just keeps getting worse.  Fuck you guys are morons.

[Legbiter]

Only about a couple million school kids dead in the US alone.  The conservative circle jerk of death just keeps getting worse.  Fuck you guys are morons.

[Eddie Teach]

(Un?)Fortunately, school kids are nearly immune, so that excess mortality will be at the expense of us older folks.

[DGuller]

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Yeah sure if the Lancet article talking about schools being open would only increase the total case fatality rate in a country by 2-3% then that's maybe an acceptable tradeoff. That's a conscious choice that's been made here as well, schools are on shortened, staggered schedules but not closed. Secondary schools and universities are closed completely though. Kids don't really catch it that much, much less have complications from it. Probably the only good thing one can say about this virus. Just keep them away from grandparents.

Only about a couple million school kids dead in the US alone.  The conservative circle jerk of death just keeps getting worse.  Fuck you guys are morons.

How are you arriving at a couple million school kids dead?

[Eddie Teach]

They didn't teach reading comprehension in law school. 

[Gups]

He thinks it's 3% of the population rather than 3% increase in the number of deaths with schools closed

[The Brain]

He thinks it's 3% of the population rather than 3% increase in the number of deaths with schools closed

Still doesn't explain school kids.

[Razgovory]

This is the most monstrous thing I've ever heard seriously proposed in American politics.  It's human sacrifice.  If we go through with this, the US doesn't deserve to exist.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The suggestion is that rather than, say, 100,000 deaths in the USA, the country would have 103,000 deaths and the youth would continue to receive an education. If that is what would happen then it would almost certainly be an acceptable tradeoff.

I'm fairly sure that suspending education for 1-2 years, in a country of 330m people, would have far worse consequences than 3000 deaths.......but modelling those consequences would be exceedingly difficult.

[Monoriu]

I mean, a lot of public decisions have human lives consequences.  Do we vaccinate the population?  A lot of vaccines kill a small number of people, due to rare genetic conditions and what have you.  Do we stop the vaccine because of that?  Cars kill a lot of people every year.  Do we allow cars on the road?  Of course we should.  We take all reasonable measures to minimise traffic deaths, but we can't set the bar at "absolutely no lives can be lost".  Otherwise nothing gets done. 

[Tamas]

I am fairly certain with proper discipline and social distancing rules for the parents at school sites, they could be reopened once a country is post-peak.



BTW the British police has said that actually, driving somewhere to have a walk is ok. I expect they'll regret this greatly if we have a nice-weather weekend during lockdown.