Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Minsky Moment]

MM--go fuck yourself if you think I in any way implied that COVID-19 mortality rates are on par with seasonal flu.

I don't have the bodily flexibility to accomplish that feat.

I'm also not the one who posted this:

Society has to make those decisions. There is risk versus reward. I am abiding by the decisions.

The CDC estimates that the flu kills between 12,000 and 61,000 americans annually. The global toll may exceed 500k. We could just generally live like this and probably save many of those lives. As a society we've decided that the cost of those people dying is not worth the cost to society for preventing the spread of influenza. Someone with a loved one or at high risk themselves of dying of influenza may object strongly that we don't try harder to stop it, but such is life.

[Legbiter]

You can get tested for free here if you want to. What we found just by randomly sampling thousands of people (we've literally tested a good chunk of the entire nation at this point) seems to suggest that around 50% of all those infected with the virus are either completely asymptomatic (yet at least somewhat contagious) or have very mild cold-like symptoms. That's very significant but nobody else but us has noticed it I think because the world has bigger things to worry about at the moment.

What that could mean is that the true case fatality rate will be around 1% if we can avoid health care blowup. Very, very bad but at this point I'll take it.

*Edit* If that French protocol with hydroxyclorosomething + that antibiotic is as effective as the doctors here seem to think (only anecdotally, mind you) it is then that 1% might be a bit lower.

[DGuller]

MM--go fuck yourself if you think I in any way implied that COVID-19 mortality rates are on par with seasonal flu.

I think a lot of people here are in the mood to pile on, and thus are reading your posts with the mindset of finding something to be indignant about, rather than reading your arguments for what they are.  I disagree with you, but I find this treatment of you downright disgusting.  We have Twitter for this kind of discourse.

[DGuller]

MM--go fuck yourself if you think I in any way implied that COVID-19 mortality rates are on par with seasonal flu.

I don't have the bodily flexibility to accomplish that feat.

I'm also not the one who posted this:

Society has to make those decisions. There is risk versus reward. I am abiding by the decisions.

The CDC estimates that the flu kills between 12,000 and 61,000 americans annually. The global toll may exceed 500k. We could just generally live like this and probably save many of those lives. As a society we've decided that the cost of those people dying is not worth the cost to society for preventing the spread of influenza. Someone with a loved one or at high risk themselves of dying of influenza may object strongly that we don't try harder to stop it, but such is life.

He is presenting it as one data point, without implying anything about how that data point compares to COVID-19.  He's basically making a "we've already established that, now we're just negotiating" point, which is a valid point to make.

[Valmy]

MM--go fuck yourself if you think I in any way implied that COVID-19 mortality rates are on par with seasonal flu.

I think a lot of people here are in the mood to pile on, and thus are reading your posts with the mindset of finding something to be indignant about, rather than reading your arguments for what they are.  I disagree with you, but I find this treatment of you downright disgusting.  We have Twitter for this kind of discourse.

I apologize if I was being unfair. I mean we already went through this weeks ago with another poster and I was just a little tired of being lectured by people who I don't think know anything.

[DGuller]

MM--go fuck yourself if you think I in any way implied that COVID-19 mortality rates are on par with seasonal flu.

I think a lot of people here are in the mood to pile on, and thus are reading your posts with the mindset of finding something to be indignant about, rather than reading your arguments for what they are.  I disagree with you, but I find this treatment of you downright disgusting.  We have Twitter for this kind of discourse.

I apologize if I was being unfair. I mean we already went through this weeks ago with another poster and I was just a little tired of being lectured by people who I don't think know anything.

In this case, the only lecturing is done by those who engage in this dogpile. 

[alfred russel]

What ifis half that - 0.5%?
Still far, far more deadly than seasonal flu.
So why are we still talking about seasonal flu?

Viper appealed to the lives of individual people at risk. My point was that there is a value judgment that must be made - an acceptable loss level for which we allow life to go on as normal.

I don't know what the rate is for a bad year of the seasonal flu: say it is 0.1%. The same individual appeals to life viper was making with coronavirus can be made with seasonal flu.

The arguments that I'm making are presumably the ones he would be making if someone was arguing about locking down for the seasonal flu in bad years. There is a tipping point and a balance to be reached, where that is: reasonable people can disagree.

[Valmy]

MM--go fuck yourself if you think I in any way implied that COVID-19 mortality rates are on par with seasonal flu.

I think a lot of people here are in the mood to pile on, and thus are reading your posts with the mindset of finding something to be indignant about, rather than reading your arguments for what they are.  I disagree with you, but I find this treatment of you downright disgusting.  We have Twitter for this kind of discourse.

I apologize if I was being unfair. I mean we already went through this weeks ago with another poster and I was just a little tired of being lectured by people who I don't think know anything.

In this case, the only lecturing is done by those who engage in this dogpile. 

Which is not necessarily bad, if they know what they are talking about. But, anyway, I was done. I apologize if I was downright disgusting 

[The Minsky Moment]

He is presenting it as one data point, without implying anything about how that data point compares to COVID-19.  He's basically making a "we've already established that, now we're just negotiating" point, which is a valid point to make.

I don't see how that is helpful. Of course there are cost-benefit tradeoffs.  But it's not helpful to analyze the tradeoff for activity X by looking at activity Y that has a far different risk profile.  Either take a position on value-of-life generally based on all potential risks or find a more realistic comparator.

[Syt]

[viper37]

Society has to make those decisions. There is risk versus reward. I am abiding by the decisions.

Then you would be ok with someone going in the street and randomly shooting drug users, overweight and elderly people?

The CDC estimates that the flu kills between 12,000 and 61,000 americans annually. The global toll may exceed 500k. We could just generally live like this and probably save many of those lives. As a society we've decided that the cost of those people dying is not worth the cost to society for preventing the spread of influenza. Someone with a loved one or at high risk themselves of dying of influenza may object strongly that we don't try harder to stop it, but such is life.

The seasonal flu is much less contagious and much less lethal and also does not send as many people to the ICU.  Certainly not 16 years old in perfect health.

[viper37]

so, he's turned full commie now?

[The Larch]

Apparently the factory that Trump wanted GM to reopen to make ventilators doesn't even belong to them anymore as it was sold a year ago... in a deal that Trump himself announced on Twitter. 

[Razgovory]

Til Lindemanmn (Rammstein) is in intensive care, but he's no longer critical.  At least that is positive.

In case someone still hasn't understood something, here's his picture:


Not old, not fat, not cripple, not diseased, yet infected and in intensive care.

Although true that the virus will be deadlier on older people and/or people with co-morbidity, there is just no way at this time to predict how someone will react to the virus, wether that person will experience mild symptoms or end up in intensive care.

Stay safe, stay at home, pretend Trump his mute.

Are you sure he's not dead?  He looks kinda dead.

[Legbiter]

Do the same for pharmaceuticals and PPE's?  Our culture and trade will be rather different once this is over.