Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[DGuller]

So the estimated range is somewhere between 60k and 30 million. Which is helpful.

Seems a bit of a wide range to me.

[Josquius]

A colleague of mine told us earlier today that she saw somebody use these distance keeping measures at a store to basically jump the queue, just stepping in to the middle of the empty space between two people. But I guess you can't just stop asshats from being asshats. Unless you are the police.

Horrifying that people are committing treason in a stressful time like this.

Incidentally an Oxford epidemiology centre has done research and an initial model and estimate that 50% of the UK could already have had covid 19. So the estimated range is somewhere between 60k and 30 million. Which is helpful. They're launching serological tests this week and hoping to publish initial findings soon.

But when?

I have heard a lot of people muttering that they maybe already had it. Had thought that was just wishful thinking/fake news.

Certainly I had a bit of an illness earlier in the year, my mam was knocked out and off school with something a bit later.
But the timelines just don't add up for corona.

[Sheilbh]

So the estimated range is somewhere between 60k and 30 million. Which is helpful.

Seems a bit of a wide range to me.

Yes.

[Sheilbh]

But when?

I have heard a lot of people muttering that they maybe already had it. Had thought that was just wishful thinking/fake news.

Certainly I had a bit of an illness earlier in the year, my mam was knocked out and off school with something a bit later.
But the timelines just don't add up for corona.

Their estimate is (and I think this bit is undisputed by other researchers) that it probably arrived by mid-January at the latest, and was probably circulating for at least a month before the first confirmed case was identified. Especially as the test at that point was just do you have it now.

I understand there are now antibody/serological tests that can confirm if you have had it.

Edit: Watching Matt Hancock giving this update and he does seem quite on top of things. But I can never forget that Sir Nicholas Soames nicknamed him "Matty Moo Moos", for uncertain reasons.

Edit: Also one issue which has been raised in the Commons, which I'd not considered and the government is considering, is the impact this lockdown is having on victims of domestic violence as it's creating a perfect environment for abusers. No idea how to help, but a really awful thought.

[Legbiter]

First local death here, a woman in her 60's with underlying respiratory illness. She was infected by a family member returning from abroad. 11 people are currently hospitalized, 1 in ICU. The spread is currently mostly being contained because of public awareness and extensive testing. Allows us to quickly find clusters and isolate them. Most people are coming down with the infection while already in precautionary quarantine. While that is the case we're not moving toward a full lockdown, we can muddle along like Japan or SK. A couple of very small municipalities here are on lockdown though as clusters have sprung up. The epidemic is being fought and contained at the very smallest level, almost street by street.

A local biotech company has been sequencing the viral genome in infected individuals. The epidemic here was mostly seeded via Austrian and North Italian skiing tourists but some strains came from countries who were not being especially watched like the UK and US.

[mongers]

First local death here, a woman in her 60's with underlying respiratory illness. She was infected by a family member returning from abroad. 11 people are currently hospitalized, 1 in ICU. The spread is currently mostly being contained because of public awareness and extensive testing. Allows us to quickly find clusters and isolate them. Most people are coming down with the infection while already in precautionary quarantine. While that is the case we're not moving toward a full lockdown, we can muddle along like Japan or SK. A couple of very small municipalities here are on lockdown though as clusters have sprung up. The epidemic is being fought and contained at the very smallest level, almost street by street.

A local biotech company has been sequencing the viral genome in infected individuals. The epidemic here was mostly seeded via Austrian and North Italian skiing tourists but some strains came from countries who were not being especially watched like the UK and US.

Well Leggy that's mixed news, but the good bits suggest Iceland could beat this.

Then when the rest of the world is at its weakest state in the aftermath,you sail out in you converted trawler-longships and wreak havoc. 

[Syt]

Prosecutors have begun investigations whether Corona cases in Ischgl, from where hundreds of infected person spread throughout Europe, were hushed up.

[Iormlund]

But when?

I have heard a lot of people muttering that they maybe already had it. Had thought that was just wishful thinking/fake news.

Certainly I had a bit of an illness earlier in the year, my mam was knocked out and off school with something a bit later.
But the timelines just don't add up for corona.

Their estimate is (and I think this bit is undisputed by other researchers) that it probably arrived by mid-January at the latest, and was probably circulating for at least a month before the first confirmed case was identified. Especially as the test at that point was just do you have it now.

I understand there are now antibody/serological tests that can confirm if you have had it.

I was hit pretty hard in late January as well, but if the bug was already making the rounds by then a lot of those overwhelmingly negative test results should be positive instead.

Also, if half the UK were infected, you'd likely see a plateau in new cases instead of a geometric progression (as the virus runs out of possible victims).

[mongers]

Yes I think there's a bit of wishful thinking going or is it clutching at straws?

[Legbiter]

If you want help in a small way, you can download a program which will use your surplus computing power to run protein folding simulations on the Wuhan virus. It's basically the world's largest supercomputer at this point. It runs unobtrusively in the background.

https://foldingathome.org/iamoneinamillion/

[celedhring]

During February, testing in Spain was giving 90-95% negative results*, and that was deliberately targeting close contacts of infected people. So I believe the amount of "phantom cases" is less large than people believe.

*Now it's around 66%, but that's mostly because we focus testing on people already displaying symptoms.

[Legbiter]

Incidentally an Oxford epidemiology centre has done research and an initial model and estimate that 50% of the UK could already have had covid 19. So the estimated range is somewhere between 60k and 30 million. Which is helpful. They're launching serological tests this week and hoping to publish initial findings soon.

I dunno. My hunch is that we're seeing the full pyramid here. It's not an iceberg so to speak. But the problem is we don't have a serological test at the moment which can test whether you've had it.

[Josquius]

Then of course you've got the uncertainty over whether you can catch it again once you've had it,.

[celedhring]

Then of course you've got the uncertainty over whether you can catch it again once you've had it,.

There's no uncertainty on that. You do gain immunity. The only caveat is whether the virus will mutate enough to reinfect you later on (like it happens with flu viruses).

[Legbiter]

Then of course you've got the uncertainty over whether you can catch it again once you've had it,.

Regular cold-causing coronaviruses are beaten off by our immune systems every day. You get acquired immunity in the process. The problem with vaccinating against these colds is that they change rapidly and they're not debilitating enough to justify the cost of vaccine development. The only coronavirus vaccines that have been developed are for livestock but they are effective at what they do.

This virus will have a vaccine. It would be nice if we could do the moonshot/Manhattan Project version of that effort.