Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Barrister]

There are no healthy obese people, DG.

Obesity is a medical condition. There's a direct correlation with life expectancy.

Correlation is not causation.

[mongers]

I'm really not sure how useful the UK confirmed cases by area are now, because last night I saw a news item about the West Midlands virus hotspot with around 30 deaths centred on Wolverhampton and Dudley, yet looking up those district today there are only 39 and 18 cases respectively.

To me that suggests there are far more people with it going undetected and that non-London areas might be seeing relatively low testing rates?

[Tamas]

I'm really not sure how useful the UK confirmed cases by area are now, because last night I saw a news item about the West Midlands virus hotspot with around 30 deaths centred on Wolverhampton and Dudley, yet looking up those district today there are only 39 and 18 cases respectively.

To me that suggests there are far more people with it going undetected and that non-London areas might be seeing relatively low testing rates?

Yeah. Just assume it's everywhere. You are probably right, and definitely safer than trying to push your luck based on lower numbers in an area.

[Iormlund]

I'm really not sure how useful the UK confirmed cases by area are now, because last night I saw a news item about the West Midlands virus hotspot with around 30 deaths centred on Wolverhampton and Dudley, yet looking up those district today there are only 39 and 18 cases respectively.

To me that suggests there are far more people with it going undetected and that non-London areas might be seeing relatively low testing rates?

Right now I'd be surprised if there are less than 30 thousand cases in the UK. I assume around 200-250k in Spain. And only Hod knows how many in the US.

[crazy canuck]

There are no healthy obese people, DG.

Obesity is a medical condition. There's a direct correlation with life expectancy.

Correlation is not causation.

Obesity doesn't just mean overweight.

Obesity is by definition a chronic medical condition.  There is by definition no such thing as a heathy obese person.

[Sheilbh]

I'm really not sure how useful the UK confirmed cases by area are now, because last night I saw a news item about the West Midlands virus hotspot with around 30 deaths centred on Wolverhampton and Dudley, yet looking up those district today there are only 39 and 18 cases respectively.

To me that suggests there are far more people with it going undetected and that non-London areas might be seeing relatively low testing rates?

Testing is done at the NHS Trust level - so it's localised but there are still some centralised labs. The Health Services Journal said that the West Midlands Pathology Service is really struggling to keep pace with the number of tests that they are receiving - so it may be a capacity issue at getting the results.

Also interesting comment by the local MP who thought there may be cultural issues in particular that elderly Sikhs and Muslims in the community are really struggling with the social distancing guidance and while the Gurdwaras and Mosques are closed, they really want to pray together because especially now religion is important. Also - and this may just be a stereotype - I wonder if there's a higher level of inter-generational cohabitation in those communities?

Just been to the shop and was able to get a version of everything I wanted for the first time

Things seem a lot better today. Saw a stat that retailers saw an extra £1billion spent last week, which is about £40 per household. If it was generally something like that it doesn't suggest people were really stockpiling just buying "a little bit extra", but if every household does it at once it creates a lot of pressure. This also aligns with what the BRC head was saying today that other countries saw a peak when social distancing was first announced but then it went back down once households felt they'd got the extra stuff they needed.

[Maximus]

Mate, over here I can't get a pickup slot to 3 weeks in advance.

I got delivery within 2 hours

[mongers]

I'm really not sure how useful the UK confirmed cases by area are now, because last night I saw a news item about the West Midlands virus hotspot with around 30 deaths centred on Wolverhampton and Dudley, yet looking up those district today there are only 39 and 18 cases respectively.

To me that suggests there are far more people with it going undetected and that non-London areas might be seeing relatively low testing rates?

Testing is done at the NHS Trust level - so it's localised but there are still some centralised labs. The Health Services Journal said that the West Midlands Pathology Service is really struggling to keep pace with the number of tests that they are receiving - so it may be a capacity issue at getting the results.

Also interesting comment by the local MP who thought there may be cultural issues in particular that elderly Sikhs and Muslims in the community are really struggling with the social distancing guidance and while the Gurdwaras and Mosques are closed, they really want to pray together because especially now religion is important. Also - and this may just be a stereotype - I wonder if there's a higher level of inter-generational cohabitation in those communities?

Just been to the shop and was able to get a version of everything I wanted for the first time

Things seem a lot better today. Saw a stat that retailers saw an extra £1billion spent last week, which is about £40 per household. If it was generally something like that it doesn't suggest people were really stockpiling just buying "a little bit extra", but if every household does it at once it creates a lot of pressure. This also aligns with what the BRC head was saying today that other countries saw a peak when social distancing was first announced but then it went back down once households felt they'd got the extra stuff they needed.

Thanks Shelf interesting points.

I heard the cultural traditions issue mention, sad if true. 

So we've now found out total UK home storage capacity far outweighs 'just in time logistics' storage.

Which also means the rate of food wastage for perishable goods is going jump over the next few weeks, as those greedy people bin the overbought fruit and veg they hoarded. 

[Sheilbh]

I'm really not sure how useful the UK confirmed cases by area are now, because last night I saw a news item about the West Midlands virus hotspot with around 30 deaths centred on Wolverhampton and Dudley, yet looking up those district today there are only 39 and 18 cases respectively.

To me that suggests there are far more people with it going undetected and that non-London areas might be seeing relatively low testing rates?

Right now I'd be surprised if there are less than 30 thousand cases in the UK. I assume around 200-250k in Spain. And only Hod knows how many in the US.

My working assumption is the 10-20 times the Chief Scientific Advisor mentioned a while ago. So we're probably around 35-70k in the UK. But the UK and Spain have been doing a reasonable about of testing - Spain's at about 650 test per million, the UK at 1,000 per million. From what I can see the US has ramped up but is still at about 300 tests per million so may have a wider range.

There are loads and loads of people who have it or have had it who we don't know about or it's undetected. Part of that's because we don't have a test that looks back and part of it, in the UK, is capacity.

It's why I still the best advice for this is don't think about or worry about catching it; behave like you have it.

[celedhring]

Ok, the government has just announced the deployment of 640,000 15-minute tests starting today. I presume the # of infected will skyrocket in the next few days, but we'll get a better picture.

[Sheilbh]

I heard the cultural traditions issue mention, sad if true. 

It is. But it gets to why I think this disease is so cruel - it's particularly risky for people who are probably least able to find comfort and social connection over the internet. But it makes all their traditional sources of that connection (family, friends, religious gatherings, pubs) dangerous. It's really upsetting.

So we've now found out total UK home storage capacity far outweighs 'just in time logistics' storage.

Which also means the rate of food wastage for perishable goods is going jump over the next few weeks, as those greedy people bin the overbought fruit and veg they hoarded. 

Yes. Basically everyone just did the sort of shop you do on holiday - or maybe in the first week in the run-up to Christmas for no good reason

Edit: Incidentally on the "adaptive suppression" point - Hong Kong has reimposed strict measures after a significant uptick in new cases.

[Barrister]

Obesity doesn't just mean overweight.

Obesity is by definition a chronic medical condition.  There is by definition no such thing as a heathy obese person.

No, obesity doesn't mean overweight.

Overweight means BMI > 25
Obese means BMI > 30

By definition.

Neither guarantees bad health, although as pointed out, they are correlated.  There absolutely is such a thing as a healthy obese person.  Statistically though, an obese person is less likely to be healthy than a person of normal weight.

[Sheilbh]

For the opera fans, Royal Opera House is streaming productions on Friday nights at 7pm UK time (I think). The initial line-up:
March 27 – 'Peter and the Wolf' (Royal Ballet, 2010)
April 3 – 'Acis and Galatea' (Royal Opera, 2009)
April 10 – 'Così fan tutte' (Royal Opera, 2010)
April 17 – 'The Metamorphosis' (Royal Ballet, 2013)

[celedhring]

People over at the Spanish OT proposing the creation of safe zones in our archipelagos and fly there our vulnerable population 

[Fate]

People over at the Spanish OT proposing the creation of safe zones in our archipelagos and fly there our vulnerable population 

Sounds like a bad idea to separate the most vulnerable from your country's medical resources. The virus can be assumed to be everywhere at this point.