Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

You are assuming that family means people living in one home.

Fair. The key is (unless you live in some absurd mansion) if you socially distancing or self-isolating as a household it doesn't matter whether you're indoors or outdoors, so long as you're socially distancing.

Apparently the upcoming London lockdown is because some people are not following the advice as requested

And that's also a part of "why can't I go out and picnic and stuff if I keep distance?" - you can't control what other people will do. Like at Sainsburys this morning. Most people used the space available so we would not end up brushing up against each other if we didn't have to, but others clearly didn't give a damn. Now, if they didn't give a damn then, they probably didn't give a damn when they were brushing up against three dozen other people during the previous 24 hours. So why would I risk myself and people I get in contact with, when I can easily avoid it?

[The Larch]

No idea of the truth of it but I hear in Spain walking the dog is one of the few occasions you're allowed to go outside for. Dogs must be loving this. Family home all day and fighting each other to take them for walks.

It's true.

I can understand. I'm getting cabin fever. Haven't seen the Sun or a tree in 6 days now.

Not even went out for shopping?

I haven't left my house since last Friday. 

Not even to dump your garbage?

I shopped groceries Saturday and then today. Plus I dump my garbage every morning 

I haven't produced enough of it yet, only today I've filled my first bag, and it's only packaging so it can sit home for a couple of days if necessary.

I will most probably get out on friday to dump garbage and do some shopping. I'd do it tomorrow but it's a public holiday over here so supermarkets will be closed.

[Sheilbh]

Scientist dude on Sky News explains how the UK is increasing measures  - update of number of people requiring ICU treatment in Italy is turning out to be higher than previously, meaning peak times will require far more ICU beds than they originally thought.

Which just shows how idiotic it was to try and do things exactly at the fine line of optimum.

If you face a crisis endangering thousands of lives, you don't draw the countermeasures at the bare minimum you ASSUME will work, you leave room for effin' contingencies, like, IDK, a novel virus not acting precisely as your Excel sheet suggests.

But they've had these contingency measures lined up - that's what's being introduced this week. And how else would you rather respond to a virus - on a scientific model which will change as more information comes in from the countries like Italy who unfortunattely got hit earlier - I mean what's the alternative, a politician's gut, what's popular?

Also the paper that they're mentioning and I posted earlier is a model that lots of countries are using - France, the US, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and, I believe, Belgium all announced broadly similar measures at the same time. I imagine that's either because lots of models internationally are producing broadly the same results or the UK and others are working together/sharing the same model.

[Josquius]

A worry I have out of this is it may lead people to the faulty deduction that tougher border controls are a good thing. Mark my words those who are mocking corona now will change their tune.

[Tamas]

Scientist dude on Sky News explains how the UK is increasing measures  - update of number of people requiring ICU treatment in Italy is turning out to be higher than previously, meaning peak times will require far more ICU beds than they originally thought.

Which just shows how idiotic it was to try and do things exactly at the fine line of optimum.

If you face a crisis endangering thousands of lives, you don't draw the countermeasures at the bare minimum you ASSUME will work, you leave room for effin' contingencies, like, IDK, a novel virus not acting precisely as your Excel sheet suggests.

But they've had these contingency measures lined up - that's what's being introduced this week. And how else would you rather respond to a virus - on a scientific model which will change as more information comes in from the countries like Italy who unfortunattely got hit earlier - I mean what's the alternative, a politician's gut, what's popular?

Also the paper that they're mentioning and I posted earlier is a model that lots of countries are using - France, the US, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and, I believe, Belgium all announced broadly similar measures at the same time. I imagine that's either because lots of models internationally are producing broadly the same results or the UK and others are working together/sharing the same model.

I am having real trouble believing that any sensible forward planning would have inckuded: "if a sudden recommendation to not socialise does not solve the issue in 4 days, close schools with a 3 days warning, give no details on how the lock down period will look like in practice".

[Sheilbh]

A worry I have out of this is it may lead people to the faulty deduction that tougher border controls are a good thing. Mark my words those who are mocking corona now will change their tune.

They're really, really ineffective. So that's a shame

And that's also a part of "why can't I go out and picnic and stuff if I keep distance?" - you can't control what other people will do. Like at Sainsburys this morning. Most people used the space available so we would not end up brushing up against each other if we didn't have to, but others clearly didn't give a damn. Now, if they didn't give a damn then, they probably didn't give a damn when they were brushing up against three dozen other people during the previous 24 hours. So why would I risk myself and people I get in contact with, when I can easily avoid it?

What about allowing people to walk or go outside for exercise? That's a bit of a lifeline at the minute. Three months locked up inside except for food shopping

Especially as, unlike Europe () we don't have balconies

I suppose my view is I'll behave as if I've got it - so far as it's in my control I will keep my distance etc. But there's always risk in going with other people. Most will behave well and shouldn't be punished for the dickheads. The dickheads on the other hand probably should be subject to some punishing and, particularly, to a lot of public shaming - we need that social element.

[Sheilbh]

I am having real trouble believing that any sensible forward planning would have inckuded: "if a sudden recommendation to not socialise does not solve the issue in 4 days, close schools with a 3 days warning, give no details on how the lock down period will look like I practice".

My suspicion on schools is the point Nicola Sturgeon mentioned, many schools were struggling to continue because of staff shortages due to household isolation etc (apparently about a third of school staff are currently off). Similarly I think the ban on large gatherings is just political because it looks/feels wrong.

But I think you have a series of measures - individual isolation, society-wide social distancing, household isolation, closing all non-essential locations, enforcing a lockdown. I don't necessarily think you can forward plan for this, there's no way you can have a series of steps in logical order and timing. I think you have a strategy of these are the measures you take in response to how the disease is developing elsewhere, what that means for how it's likely to develop here and how people are behaving in response to existing steps.

I think that's what all governments have been doing to some extent or other. Personally I think the border closures and stuff are political - the enforced quarantine on Wuhan which included a travel ban is estimated to have pushed back the spread to the rest of China by 2-5 days, and to the world by a few weeks. Similarly I feel like we're not there on testing/screening at borders - self-isolation for travellers might work better?

Incidentally there's another report from Iceland backing up that one town in Italy that tested everyone - it does look like the proportion of asymptomatic cases is 50%+.

[merithyn]

You sound even more stupid than CC did about a week ago.  And that is saying a lot!

cc didn't sound stupid. Just stridently optimistic

[alfred russel]

A lot of this is getting to the point of BS. The American Alpine Club just told people to limit "recreational travel" and not go climbing outside your community in rural areas (on the basis that they are vulnerable communities). I'd like to know the percentage of people visiting these areas are expected to be climbers versus people just living their daily lives (my hunch is that it is extremely trivial). If you want to talk about social distancing--how much better can you get than a cabin or tent away from civilization?

https://americanalpineclub.org/news/2020/3/17/climbers-take-action-against-coronavirus

I don't know, it looks fairly sensible to me. Do go out, but don't mingle.

All of those are fine except the "don't travel to recreation areas beyond your community". I live in a major metropolitan area. All the recreation areas in my community suck ass. My plan is to rent cabins with my girlfriend (and possibly a couple other friends) near cool hiking and climbing areas and make my way across the country for as long as this shutdown is going. That is about as socially isolated as you can get.

Now this article comes out and people are telling me, "I don't know if that is cool." I give up.

[crazy canuck]

You sound even more stupid than CC did about a week ago.  And that is saying a lot!

cc didn't sound stupid. Just stridently optimistic

Naw, You were right and I was most certainly wrong.  But it is kind of you to put it that way.

[Zoupa]

All of those are fine except the "don't travel to recreation areas beyond your community". I live in a major metropolitan area. All the recreation areas in my community suck ass. My plan is to rent cabins with my girlfriend (and possibly a couple other friends) near cool hiking and climbing areas and make my way across the country for as long as this shutdown is going. That is about as socially isolated as you can get.

Now this article comes out and people are telling me, "I don't know if that is cool." I give up.

This is not a vacation. This is a QUARANTINE. Be a big boy and do as you're told.

[alfred russel]

All of those are fine except the "don't travel to recreation areas beyond your community". I live in a major metropolitan area. All the recreation areas in my community suck ass. My plan is to rent cabins with my girlfriend (and possibly a couple other friends) near cool hiking and climbing areas and make my way across the country for as long as this shutdown is going. That is about as socially isolated as you can get.

Now this article comes out and people are telling me, "I don't know if that is cool." I give up.

This is not a vacation. This is a QUARANTINE. Be a big boy and do as you're told.

Fuck you.

The rules are arbitrary. None of us are making them, and what gets posted here won't change anything, but in the pretend world that any of our opinions matter...you might want to be upset at the pace of unsustainable rules being made for little or no reason. They threaten the whole system of social distancing.

[mongers]

I've got a new goodbye expression to use with acquaintances / people I know a bit, "See you on the other side"

[merithyn]

All of those are fine except the "don't travel to recreation areas beyond your community". I live in a major metropolitan area. All the recreation areas in my community suck ass. My plan is to rent cabins with my girlfriend (and possibly a couple other friends) near cool hiking and climbing areas and make my way across the country for as long as this shutdown is going. That is about as socially isolated as you can get.

Now this article comes out and people are telling me, "I don't know if that is cool." I give up.

This is not a vacation. This is a QUARANTINE. Be a big boy and do as you're told.

Fuck you.

The rules are arbitrary. None of us are making them, and what gets posted here won't change anything, but in the pretend world that any of our opinions matter...you might want to be upset at the pace of unsustainable rules being made for little or no reason. They threaten the whole system of social distancing.

You know, most of the time I let your obvious white-boy privilege just roll off, but this isn't fucking about you, asshole.

There are people out there - like me, cc, and a myriad of other people - who could fucking die if you decide to travel the country and bring that shit to them because fuck the rules. Because it annoys you. Because you don't see the point.

For once in your whole damn life, this isn't about you. This is about other people, and for once in your goddamn life will you please, just please, shut up and do what you're told to help other people get through this alive.

Fucking selfish, self-involved privileged asshole. 

[Sheilbh]

The US is growing way above trend - another 43% of new cases today - really worrying.