Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Duque de Bragança]

Saw a news tidbit that they have assembled the council that would manage and oversee the state/military taking control of critical private companies if the need arises.

There are already provisions and legal background for such measures in case of an emergency (this is Eastern Europe, after all) but I am wondering if the UK has similar provisions?

We're not the UK but we do have those under an emergency. The state has used them to put private health care under the command of the Health Ministry. Would surprise me if the UK didn't.

Hermes, French Economy minister Bruno Le Maire has not discarded nationalisations, something the free-marketer Jupiter considered unthinkable not long ago.
There are special emergency powers available to the French president, last used due to a putsch attempt during the Algerian War, involving the army as well. No curfew, martial law yet though.

The armed forces are to build a field hospital in Alsace in the next few days, one of the regions most afflicted by the disease, along with Île-de-France/Paris.

[Camerus]

The Chinese government seems to be weathering the economic impacts from all external signs with the worst hopefully behind them 

Whew. I was really worried that the Chinese Government would be ok.

 

[Valmy]

The Chinese government seems to be weathering the economic impacts from all external signs with the worst hopefully behind them 

Whew. I was really worried that the Chinese Government would be ok.

 

Let me just say I am highly skeptical of most of what comes out of Beijing and, to be fair, they have earned that skepticism.

[Sheilbh]

The Chinese government seems to be weathering the economic impacts from all external signs with the worst hopefully behind them

Why is the worst behind them?

I don't want to be rude, but why do you think they are weathering the economic impacts? All evidence is to the contrary. Goldman Sachs just estimated that they will be -9% GDP growth for the quarter.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-goldman/goldman-cuts-first-quarter-gdp-estimate-for-china-sees-9-contraction-vs-2-5-earlier-idUSKBN2140PL

They are a higher growth economy than western developed countries - I'd expect us to be worse (not in Q1 because they are ahead of the curve on the disease outbreak, but as time progresses).

Yeah - the other implication in that paper from Imperial is that China is likely to see new cases and move into periods of "adaptive suppression". I'm not entirely sure the worst is over yet for China.

[Fate]

Italy now 31506 cases (+3526 in one day) and 2503 deaths (+345 in one day). Will exceed the # of reported deaths in China by the end of the week.

[Camerus]

The Chinese government seems to be weathering the economic impacts from all external signs with the worst hopefully behind them

Why is the worst behind them?

The "worst [is] hopefully behind them" because Wuhan reported only 1 new infection today, with only 21 new infections overall, with 20 of those coming from people coming from abroad.  They have already put in place a robust program to quarantine new arrivals (as well as existing citizens) and the results are showing in the statistics.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/china-reports-21-new-cases-with-all-but-one-travel-related-prompts-crackdown-on-infected-travellers

I don't want to be rude, but why do you think they are weathering the economic impacts? All evidence is to the contrary. Goldman Sachs just estimated that they will be -9% GDP growth for the quarter.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-goldman/goldman-cuts-first-quarter-gdp-estimate-for-china-sees-9-contraction-vs-2-5-earlier-idUSKBN2140PL

They are a higher growth economy than western developed countries - I'd expect us to be worse (not in Q1 because they are ahead of the curve on the disease outbreak, but as time progresses).

From the same article:

With the numbers of new infections dwindling in China, Xinhua news agency reported that a first batch of medical workers who had travelled to Hubei province to assist with the crisis had departed on March 17 morning.

The economic outlook was also brightening, with state planning officials saying China's economy would return to normal in the second quarter as factories reopened, businesses resumed trading and consumers started spending again.

"Over 90 percent of large-scale industrial companies in regions outside of Hubei have resumed production, and resumption rates for places including Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai are close to 100 percent," Meng Wei, spokeswoman of the state planner told a news briefing on March 17.

[Valmy]

We'll see. If the state controlled mouthpieces of a totalitarian regime say things praising itself it must all be true.

[Admiral Yi]

Corona viruses got their name in the 1960s because under electron microscopes the cells looked like monarch's crowns.

15-30% of common cold cases are actually a corona virus.

Fun facts from the Economist.

[Syt]

So the new law to deal with the Corona situation accidentally or intentionally may have had a major side effect:

Normally under Austrian law, if the government has to close a business (as it has done with all non-essential shops) then the business owner is entitled to recompensation for lost earnings.

However, since this is probably quite impossible for the state, the new law says that the paragraph in question doesn't apply to this situation. The law was approved unanimously in parliament by all parties.

However, the paragraph that is now no longer in effect also contains a passage that covers the paying of wages and that the government would also cover those.

Numerous experts on employment law now say that the businesses are now in a position where they can legally halt payment of wages and salaries if their business is shut down, with no recourse for the employees.

[Legbiter]

The "worst [is] hopefully behind them" because Wuhan reported only 1 new infection today, with only 21 new infections overall, with 20 of those coming from people coming from abroad.  They have already put in place a robust program to quarantine new arrivals (as well as existing citizens) and the results are showing in the statistics.

Yes they adopted such stringent control measures that the virus is mostly extinct in China. There is no longer a ready initial reservoir of infected individuals to rekindle an exponential epidemic. Any small outbreaks can be contained with good contact tracing. They do still have to be extremely vigilant toward foreign travellers.

[The Brain]

Corona viruses got their name in the 1960s because under electron microscopes the cells looked like monarch's crowns.

15-30% of common cold cases are actually a corona virus.

Fun facts from the Economist.

I remember Cold Case.

[Fate]

Pretty crazy numbers in Lombardia and Emilia Romangna with a 10% case fatality rate. ICU bed utilization is 100% of pre-outbreak levels. They've surged capacity but that's going to be full in a week from now. Fatality rates are gonna spike once the wave of severe cases crests over their capacity to provide ICU level care.

[Camerus]

We'll see. If the state controlled mouthpieces of a totalitarian regime say things praising itself it must all be true.

I like your edit to add in a bit of lip.   

Yeah - take the official stats with a large grain of salt.  Still, there's only so much that can be hidden from public and international view, particularly in the tier one and two cities.  But if Wuhan and northern Italian-style shit were going down in those areas, that would be pretty clear by now. 

[Syt]

Der Spiegel has breaking news that the EU governments have decided to deny entry to non-EU citizens, supposedly effective immediately.

[alfred russel]

The Chinese government seems to be weathering the economic impacts from all external signs with the worst hopefully behind them

Why is the worst behind them?

The "worst [is] hopefully behind them" because Wuhan reported only 1 new infection today, with only 21 new infections overall, with 20 of those coming from people coming from abroad.  They have already put in place a robust program to quarantine new arrivals (as well as existing citizens) and the results are showing in the statistics.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/china-reports-21-new-cases-with-all-but-one-travel-related-prompts-crackdown-on-infected-travellers

I don't want to be rude, but why do you think they are weathering the economic impacts? All evidence is to the contrary. Goldman Sachs just estimated that they will be -9% GDP growth for the quarter.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-goldman/goldman-cuts-first-quarter-gdp-estimate-for-china-sees-9-contraction-vs-2-5-earlier-idUSKBN2140PL

They are a higher growth economy than western developed countries - I'd expect us to be worse (not in Q1 because they are ahead of the curve on the disease outbreak, but as time progresses).

From the same article:

With the numbers of new infections dwindling in China, Xinhua news agency reported that a first batch of medical workers who had travelled to Hubei province to assist with the crisis had departed on March 17 morning.

The economic outlook was also brightening, with state planning officials saying China's economy would return to normal in the second quarter as factories reopened, businesses resumed trading and consumers started spending again.

"Over 90 percent of large-scale industrial companies in regions outside of Hubei have resumed production, and resumption rates for places including Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai are close to 100 percent," Meng Wei, spokeswoman of the state planner told a news briefing on March 17.

First, 9% GDP contraction is catastrophic.

Second, as Sheilbh stated, they are likely to have to restart the lockdown for future outbreaks. Only a trivial portion of their population has been infected and become immune--they are as susceptible to outbreaks as everyone else, and no one has developed a successful means to avoid infection outbreaks.