Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Duque de Bragança]

Voted early, before noon as usual. Washed hands afterwards as part of the special procedures, yet I did not vote for Macron and his ilk, or any other nuisance. 
Did not see many elderly people voting and at least one I know cancelled his voting "trip" due to family pressure.

PS : participation at noon is already lower by 5 points than at the last city council elections.

Duque well done, democracy in adversity.

To be honest, I do not risk much. My public transportation trips are probably riskier. Specially at night, the lasts buses (not night buses) are usually empty. Still, transportation authorities say 80 % of the traffic tomorrow Monday, so I will have to see the new schedules. Failing that, back to 45-50 min on foot each way as per during the winter strike.

[Sheilbh]

6200 runners at the Bath Marathon do their bit to achieve British herd immunity! 

Herd immunity isn't the goal - that's not the goal, it's just a likely side-effect because this virus isn't controllable even when we take the sort of measures that exist in Europe. The goal is to flatten the curve and try and reduce the impact on the NHS so fewer people die. But there'll still be lots of infections so we might get to herd immunity which would be useful. The research on treatment is progressing - which is hopeful, because we might get a vaccine but it'll probably be next year (I believe Merkel said at least 18 months in Germany's estimation, Trump told a rally it was coming "very soon" - so....) and that's if it's possible, there's no vaccine for any other coronavirus.

And Le Figaro reported that the Macron government aren't saying it but are also hoping that it's what happens, as is Merkel who has discussed that over 50% of Germans might get the illness.

Unrelated but I wonder if, after this and in a few years, we view people with colds going outside without a facemask the way we view people spitting on the street

I hope he's right (on average).

However we have proof that one Biogen executive at their conference in Boston spread COVID-19 to 70 other employees. The crushing lines at those airports are going to create an exponential number of secondary and teritary cases.

It's based on early evidence so may have changed an explanation though which I found helpful:

Early in outbreak, each COVID-19 case infects ~2.5 others on average. There's ~5 days between one infection and next, so we'd expect one case to lead to 2.5^6 = 244 more cases in a month. If we can halve transmission, so each infects 1.25 others instead, we'd expect 4 more cases.
Even if we can't fully stop transmission, sustained changes in behaviour (e.g. self-isolation for week when ill, hand washing, reducing close-knit interactions where possible) could dramatically reduce spread.
(Above calculation assumes reproduction number of 2.5 and serial interval of 5 days for COVID-19 in early stages of an outbreak. These are obviously rough calculations based on average values – second value comes from 1.25^6=3.8)

But I agree on the airport that looks like a nightmare to me. It's people from a number of high risk areas, moving slowly in a large crowd. And does anyone know what they were screening for? I mean my understanding is that it takes hours even on the fastest case to do a test (and the US capacity to do tests is low), so what were they actually checking?

[mongers]

Voted early, before noon as usual. Washed hands afterwards as part of the special procedures, yet I did not vote for Macron and his ilk, or any other nuisance. 
Did not see many elderly people voting and at least one I know cancelled his voting "trip" due to family pressure.

PS : participation at noon is already lower by 5 points than at the last city council elections.

Duque well done, democracy in adversity.

To be honest, I do not risk much. My public transportation trips are probably riskier. Specially at night, the lasts buses (not night buses) are usually empty. Still, transportation authorities say 80 % of the traffic tomorrow Monday, so I will have to see the new schedules. Failing that, back to 45-50 min on foot each way as per during the winter strike.

Good to know.

Well at least you'll keep fitness up with that regime, walking the empty streets of Paris for months on end. 

[Tamas]

Herd immunity isn't the goal - that's not the goal, it's just a likely side-effect because this virus isn't controllable even when we take the sort of measures that exist in Europe. The goal is to flatten the curve and try and reduce the impact on the NHS so fewer people die.

First of all, herd immunity was talked about by the government as a goal until very recently.

Secondly, to flatten the curve is the goal also of every other country, that goal is not unique to the UK. We are opting for doing very little and hoping it will work is to prevent a second spark of the virus during the winter. As the article I quoted above points out, it is a guaranteed extra risk on lives now to theoretically prevent a theoretical danger in the future.

[ulmont]

How soon do we see the Republicans trying to figure out how to "adjust" the election and voting to handle this crisis?

2 states (Louisiana and Georgia) have already delayed their primaries.  Depending on how things look in a month or two they may even get delayed further or canceled.  Worst case scenario states just pass emergency legislation to say "here's our slate of electors" in October.

[Threviel]

Lots of moaning about the UK's response. It's not very much different from Sweden's. Don't panic, clean your hands, stay at home if sick is what's recommended here. And don't go abroad.

People I talk to seem to take it seriously and stay at home if sick.

[Sheilbh]

First of all, herd immunity was talked about by the government as a goal until very recently.

I think it was bad communication - and I'd note a lot of that came from the nudge unit guys, who I think were free-lancing doing interviews and comms about how important they are. Since then they've been clearly reined in and told to shut up. All the communications in the last few days have been the other scientists explaining what it is and how it might occur.

Secondly, to flatten the curve is the goal also of every other country, that goal is not unique to the UK. We are opting for doing very little and hoping it will work is to prevent a second spark of the virus during the winter. As the article I quoted above points out, it is a guaranteed extra risk on lives now to theoretically prevent a theoretical danger in the future.

Yeah - I don't think the UK is that different from other countries - we're not a million miles from France and Germany, we're just later.

So, in that article he asks if the high-risk group is suppose to withdraw for six months - that's the plan for four months. He then says we should be slowing the outbreak and suggests sick pay (which I think the government has done), not shaking hands (which is in all government messages), wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day (government messaging) and educating people about masks which should be reserved for medical professionals (same). I'd also add the self-isolation for 7 days if you show any symptoms.

From his to do list, we're missing strongly encouraging working from home (I agree) and large gatherings. So it's not clear to me what's different about his flattening the curve approach and the UK "herd immunity" approach - I think that's because the UK isn't trying to achieve herd immunity, it's trying to flatten the curve, but it might be a side effect. It probably won't be enough which is why I think those mitigation measures around speeding up funerals and expanding healthcare will be most important - because I think we will end up in the same situation as France, and possibly Italy.

The core issue getting people to change their behaviour and if that can be done without lockdown, then great - I saw Italian officials blaming the "irresponsible behaviour" of some citizens who went to the beach, packed the bars and cafes, especially after the schools closed (basically treating it like a snow day) for some of the recent infections. If the schools close and the big gatherings are banned but people don't get the message it means nothing - see all the people hanging out in bars in NY last night. Personally I feel like the biggest differences that could be made is more or less mandated working from home, ramping up testing (especially with the potential of tests of past infection which is apparently coming in the next few weeks) and really hammering home that message - don't worry about catching it, behave like you already have it.

Also there are areas where the UK is taking a different approach - isolating the elderly for up to four months, putting contingency measures in place around healthcare (requisitioning private wards, preparing to requisituse hotels and requiring a shift by companies to start manufacturing ventilators) and, for want of a better word, death care. These are harsh, scary measures but they seem aimed at dealing with a pandemic that is existing in-country, can't be controlled and may not even be delayed by much - which makes them scarier.

[Sheilbh]

How soon do we see the Republicans trying to figure out how to "adjust" the election and voting to handle this crisis?

2 states (Louisiana and Georgia) have already delayed their primaries.  Depending on how things look in a month or two they may even get delayed further or canceled.  Worst case scenario states just pass emergency legislation to say "here's our slate of electors" in October.

The UK's delayed postponed the May local elections until next year. France had local elections this weekend which have gone ahead.

Edit: As the US is going to be voting in the autumn I'd think they should probably be looking into how they're going to deal with voter registration and rolling out mail ballots.

[Legbiter]

Herd immunity isn't the goal - that's not the goal, it's just a likely side-effect because this virus isn't controllable even when we take the sort of measures that exist in Europe. The goal is to flatten the curve and try and reduce the impact on the NHS so fewer people die.

First of all, herd immunity was talked about by the government as a goal until very recently.

The term is usually only used in vaccinations. You'd need 60-70% of the public to catch it, In UK terms that's what, 40 million people. Several million would need professional medical assistance and about 1 million would die to achieve this. Needless to say the NHS and society would blow up way, way before any such theoretical "immunity" would be achieved. Smallpox and polio for instance just kept on killing people, only vaccines stopped them.

Just use tried and tested control measures. Make the virus work for it, evolve.

[alfred russel]

My girlfriend (who I live with) is concerned about our impact on the community as vectors for the disease and wants to limit our outside trips that involve other people to 1 a day.

This is terrible. I really want to get a cabin with good wifi in a cool wilderness area while we work remotely, so we can hike and climb to our heart's content, but she is apprehensive.

I'm going to go insane living in a condo for several months. If she was on board, I'd pay a large amount of money to be infected right now, so in two weeks we could ignore this nonsense. A life in lockdown isn't a life worth living.

[Tamas]

[Sheilbh]

Another increase of about 250 in the UK. Number of tests is down - but that's hopefully a blip after a few days of them increasing.

More worryingly another 14 deaths, so we're up to 35. After 11 yesterday it's concerning. NHS Trusts have been releasing information and it looks like the majority were in their 80s with underlying conditions, but some younger (in their 60s) and some where they don't say anything about underlying conditions. It's horrible

Been thinking about the elderly being asked to isolate for four months and there's loads of lovely stories about people wanting to help - but I wonder if there's a way to organise it just so local communities can help pick up shopping or, say, volunteer for a phone call and a chat.

Incidentally my local Pentecostal Church (a branch of a Nigerian mega-church) were out yesterday proselytising off the back of this. They said they were taking a survey to help with the community but then didn't actually do the survey and went on about how it's like Noah and you need to accept Jesus NOW

Also an interesting science/modelling link (I know nothing but find this really interesting - everyone seems to be basically not pre-publishing or putting anything behind a paywall which is great):
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/global-time-varying-transmission.html

[Syt]

German media report that Trump has offered $ 1 billion to German researchers who work on a vaccine so that they develop it exclusively for the USA (instead of, you know, everyone).

German government confirms the report and are in negotiations with the researchers themselves.

[Caliga]

Yeah, I was at the supermarket last night and I felt like I was living in the Soviet Union.

NO BREAD FOR YOU, ONLY BEET SOUP COMRADE

[The Minsky Moment]

  Btw, no deaths in NY.   Lots of people with mild symptoms.  Few confirmed cases hospitalized.

No reported deaths and also no reported recoveries - so jury is till out.  On march 3, the second New Yorker was hospitalized; on March 9 it was reported as 8, one day later the governor said it was 14.  Spot the trend.

There is also a fatality in Bergen county, New Jersey which is the same region (out of only 15 reported cases in the state).

4 days later - 3 dead and 65 in ICU.