Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[merithyn]

So I'm coaching Josh's hockey team, and for some reason the job of booking a year-end party has fallen on me.

We were going to rent a sheet of ice, but between Monday (when I saw it was available) and Tuesday when I went to book it, it was gone.  So instead I rented a party room at a big indoor playpark.

Then one of the parents said "err, because of corona virus, we're not taking our kid there".  And, um... good point.  All those play surfaces the kids climb and jump on can hardly be cleaned easily.  Looking for a third possibility (that seems 'cleaner') we could just rent our local community hall.  It doesn't get used a ton, it should be virus-free.

But it's in a week and a half.  Now I have one parent who says we won't go, one who says we should go, and 6 silences.

It sucks, but you may have to just go ahead and cancel it this year. Or delay it by a month or so.

[crazy canuck]

Death panels - what?

Italian physicians are having to make judgment calls on who gets the limited beds available. That is, effectively, determining who get medical services in order to get better.

I hasten to add that our health care system in BC is not overburdened atm (well any more than usual) and we are essentially at ground zero in Canada for this virus.  I think a lot of praise goes to the health care professionals who are dealing with this.

Yeah. Two weeks in and Canada is fine. Let's see where you are 6-8 weeks in.

We are about six weeks in - probably much longer if one counts all the untested cases who are likely out there.

Our first confirmed case was January 27th. He had come back from Wuhan.  He was pronounced virus free on Feb. 19.

One thing you might not know is we have a large population who travel to and from China on a regular basis who work, study and live here.  Our exposure to the virus occurred very early on - which is why our low mortality rate along with South Korea is so striking.

[crazy canuck]

One epidemiologist that I heard said that the situation in Italy is likely for two reasons: The population is older, in general, than in China and Korea; and the virus has likely mutated slightly as it's moved through the population.

The first is quantifiable - and found to be true. The second is a theory only and therefore not really quantifiable at this time. (It'll take weeks to do any kind of meaningful studies on that.)

And what I'm learning from what you're throwing around - as well as the data from the cruise ship - is that the likely number is closer to 1% - 1.5% which is still a not-insignificant number of people when they're estimating that 25-40% of the population are likely to come down with it given that it's a novel virus.

The numbers aren't going in your favor on this, cc. I get that you're comfortable believing that this is "just another flu", but when the WHO, the CDC, and every other international health org is saying it's not, I'm going to listen to them.

Cruise ships are also a very bad indicator of both R0 and mortality rates.   On the R0 issue - people are generally not confined with the same people constantly for that sort of duration.  On the mortality issue - look at the average cruiser, both in terms of age and over all health.

[Barrister]

We are about six weeks in - probably much longer if one counts all the untested cases who are likely out there.

Our first confirmed case was January 27th. He had come back from Wuhan.  He was pronounced virus free on Feb. 19.

One thing you might not know is we have a large population who travel to and from China on a regular basis who work, study and live here.  Our exposure to the virus occurred very early on - which is why our low mortality rate along with South Korea is so striking.

I'll let Meri answer this directly, but I'm pretty sure she knows about BCs high Chinese population.

All that means is the first several cases were contained - they were caught overseas, and then watched so they couldn't spread the virus to anyone else.

But the recent cases now are all transmitted inside Canada.  The virus is now spreading locally.

[crazy canuck]

Mortality rate could be the same as the mortality rate of the flu https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?mod=article_inline

Right. It could be. That is the thing. We'll see. I think taking reasonable precautions is appropriate until we know more. I don't think that qualified as panicking but just not being reckless.

I have nothing against taking reasonable precautions.  I think our local health officials have done very well in advising what precautions should be taken.  What I object to is the we are all going to die vibe going on here.

[alfred russel]

I'm confused too.  Is sick pay provided by the state in Spain?

Yes.

I want a better country. 

There are pros and cons. Getting data from Wikipedia (obviously not the best source, but readily available):

US Unemployment: 3.5%
Spain Unemployment: 13.78%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_unemployment_rate

US Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $65,112
Spain Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $41,592

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita

Well Canada has a system comparable to Spain and our unemployment rate is 5% - so that probably isn't it.

From the same sources:

US Unemployment: 3.5%
Canada Unemployment: 5.6%

US Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $65,112
Canada Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $50,725

That means Canada's unemployment is 60% higher and income is 22% less than in the US. There are pros and cons to having a robust social safety net but it is worth remembering the cons are there.

As discussed in another thread, on a per capita basis, Canada's carbon emissions are even higher than the US (which are obviously disgracefully high--at least Spain is doing better).

[The Minsky Moment]

It's fortunate that people in cities never have to be in confined areas with lots of people in less then pristine hygienic conditions . . .

There are now over 100 cases in the bedroom community of New Rochelle, NY; it's not because of the heavy travel between New Rochelle and Wuhan.  It's because one guy got it and went to shul.

[crazy canuck]

We are about six weeks in - probably much longer if one counts all the untested cases who are likely out there.

Our first confirmed case was January 27th. He had come back from Wuhan.  He was pronounced virus free on Feb. 19.

One thing you might not know is we have a large population who travel to and from China on a regular basis who work, study and live here.  Our exposure to the virus occurred very early on - which is why our low mortality rate along with South Korea is so striking.

I'll let Meri answer this directly, but I'm pretty sure she knows about BCs high Chinese population.

All that means is the first several cases were contained - they were caught overseas, and then watched so they couldn't spread the virus to anyone else.

But the recent cases now are all transmitted inside Canada.  The virus is now spreading locally.

It does not mean what you claim at all.  The first cases came to the attention of the health authority after they became symptomatic.  That means that they were mixing in the community before they were "contained" as you put it.  None of those first patients were in hospital. They were all sent home and asked to self isolate.  All have now tested free of the virus.



edit: also it is not just that we have a large asian population - What most people do not know, including you apparently, is the large number who travel back and forth regularly until only very recently.

[crazy canuck]

I'm confused too.  Is sick pay provided by the state in Spain?

Yes.

I want a better country. 

There are pros and cons. Getting data from Wikipedia (obviously not the best source, but readily available):

US Unemployment: 3.5%
Spain Unemployment: 13.78%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_unemployment_rate

US Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $65,112
Spain Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $41,592

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita

Well Canada has a system comparable to Spain and our unemployment rate is 5% - so that probably isn't it.

From the same sources:

US Unemployment: 3.5%
Canada Unemployment: 5.6%

US Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $65,112
Canada Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $50,725

That means Canada's unemployment is 60% higher and income is 22% less than in the US. There are pros and cons to having a robust social safety net but it is worth remembering the cons are there.

As discussed in another thread, on a per capita basis, Canada's carbon emissions are even higher than the US (which are obviously disgracefully high--at least Spain is doing better).

I was comparing to Spain...  The US has other extraneous factors not present in either Spain or Canada that are also unrelated to whether employees receive sick benefits.

[crazy canuck]

It's fortunate that people in cities never have to be in confined areas with lots of people in less then pristine hygienic conditions . . .

There are now over 100 cases in the bedroom community of New Rochelle, NY; it's not because of the heavy travel between New Rochelle and Wuhan.  It's because one guy got it and went to shul.

Confined space for a prolonged period of time.    Btw, no deaths in NY.   Lots of people with mild symptoms.  Few confirmed cases hospitalized.

[The Minsky Moment]

From the same sources:

US Unemployment: 3.5%
Canada Unemployment: 5.6%

US Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $65,112
Canada Per capita GDP from IMF (PPP): $50,725

That means Canada's unemployment is 60% higher and income is 22% less than in the US. There are pros and cons to having a robust social safety net but it is worth remembering the cons are there.

Those numbers can't be taken at exactly face value.

On unemployment, the Canadian and US statistical agencies use different methods to define unemployment, which historically has the effect of increasing the reported Canadian rate. Canada includes 15 year olds in their survey and counts passive measure as job seeking (thus increasing the reported numbers of unemployed).  The flip side is that Canada has a higher reported labor force participation rate.

On GDP the US average conceals very sharp regional disparities and deviations.  High income states and regions generally tend to coincide with high cost of living areas where the extra income doesn't necessarily translate into superior quality of life.

[The Minsky Moment]

  Btw, no deaths in NY.   Lots of people with mild symptoms.  Few confirmed cases hospitalized.

No reported deaths and also no reported recoveries - so jury is till out.  On march 3, the second New Yorker was hospitalized; on March 9 it was reported as 8, one day later the governor said it was 14.  Spot the trend.

There is also a fatality in Bergen county, New Jersey which is the same region (out of only 15 reported cases in the state).

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally lots of people saying the "nudge unit" is just one voice in the room in the UK and apparently most of the response so far is in line with the UK's pre-existing Pandemic Flu strategy:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pandemic-flu

Still may not be right, of course, but I'm a little relieved it's not all the data scientists etc

[celedhring]

The uni I often do work for has shut down. I was expecting it, but it will still suck income-wise. Given that telly/film stuff is also grinding to a halt, I can easily see myself not having a job until the fall.

Time to work on an apocalyptic script!

[Liep]

514 infected and from today basically all of public sector Denmark will be shut down for two weeks, cultural events, schools, churches will close, non-healthcare workers sent home. The government also hope all bars will close for the two weeks and that all events with over 100 in attendance be cancelled.

Kinda feels like we're too late like in Italy though.