Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Legbiter]

The thing that is really driving the panic is bad data, not helped by the US abysmal failure at public health testing.

And the UK. They're no better, apparently.

My opinion on the response here by the beard-strokers would just be a long stream of obscenities if I typed it out. Especially them trying to declare this or that foreign region a dangerzone and mildly suggesting you maybe not travel there while there are hardly any restrictions on incoming flights  I just pray we don't pay a heavy price for them learning on the job.

[crazy canuck]

This is a fantastic write-up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusCA/comments/fdieal/psa_a_note_of_caution_regarding_covid19/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Article repeats the mantra that the mortality rate is higher than the flu as if that is a fact and not the worst case speculation.  Stopped reading there.

If you'd read further, you would have seen that the numbers provided in the article are directly from the WHO. You can disagree based on whatever calculations you've decided makes your case stronger, but the WHO, at this time, has said that the death rate is 3.4%.

I'm really getting annoyed at people saying shit like, "People! You need to stop panicking!!" It's not panicking to say, "Hey, this is a new virus that no one has had before, you won't have any immunities to it, and it can be very dangerous if you're already one of the sicker people in our community. Let's be smart about how we handle it, shall we?" That's basic common sense.

Perhaps annoying but the truth is important to avoid unnecessary panic.  The data now coming in (including the medical journal report I linked above) suggests the WHO's early estimate is not accurate. Although very effective at getting people's attention.

The mortality rate in South Korea, where more than 1,100 tests have been administered per million residents, comes out to just 0.6%, for example. In the U.S., where only seven tests have been administered per million residents, the mortality rate is above 5%.

South Korea was one of the countries with early exposure to the infection.  Their mortality rate is very low.  Canada (and Vancouver in particular) had early exposure.  We have had 1 death and that person was already very ill with other complications.  Again a very low mortality rate.

Similar low rates are found in other countries that have actually done testing.  The outlier is Italy - that continues to be a mystery.

Few countries with significant testing capacity are reporting mortality rates above 2%, but Italy has proven an outlier. Even with 638 tests given per million people, the country is still reporting a mortality rate of nearly 4%. While the exact reason for the discrepancy is unclear, it could point to differences in the country's testing strategy, the specific test it is using or something unique about the actual outbreak there.

https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/

[crazy canuck]

I just want to mention that this idea that the regular flu is not a big deal is wrong. It is a big deal, usually handled by a healthcare system that is not overwhelmed.

This is where I get so frustrated. People die by the thousands of the flu, and there is that risk right now. Add to it the COVID-19, and our medical health system isn't going to survive this. Korea has 12 beds per 1000 and they were completely overwhelmed, even with the "paltry" numbers CC posted. The US and Canada have 2.5 beds per 1000 people. This has the potential to bring our countries to their knees when we're creating "death panels" to decide who gets a bed over who doesn't. And that's exactly what's happened in China, Korea, and Italy. That's not hyperbole. That is what has happened.

Death panels - what?

I hasten to add that our health care system in BC is not overburdened atm (well any more than usual) and we are essentially at ground zero in Canada for this virus.  I think a lot of praise goes to the health care professionals who are dealing with this. 

[merithyn]

One epidemiologist that I heard said that the situation in Italy is likely for two reasons: The population is older, in general, than in China and Korea; and the virus has likely mutated slightly as it's moved through the population.

The first is quantifiable - and found to be true. The second is a theory only and therefore not really quantifiable at this time. (It'll take weeks to do any kind of meaningful studies on that.)

And what I'm learning from what you're throwing around - as well as the data from the cruise ship - is that the likely number is closer to 1% - 1.5% which is still a not-insignificant number of people when they're estimating that 25-40% of the population are likely to come down with it given that it's a novel virus.

The numbers aren't going in your favor on this, cc. I get that you're comfortable believing that this is "just another flu", but when the WHO, the CDC, and every other international health org is saying it's not, I'm going to listen to them.

[merithyn]

Death panels - what?

Italian physicians are having to make judgment calls on who gets the limited beds available. That is, effectively, determining who get medical services in order to get better.

I hasten to add that our health care system in BC is not overburdened atm (well any more than usual) and we are essentially at ground zero in Canada for this virus.  I think a lot of praise goes to the health care professionals who are dealing with this.

Yeah. Two weeks in and Canada is fine. Let's see where you are 6-8 weeks in.

[merithyn]

WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

What does this mean?

Genuinely what's the definition in terms of when they declare it a pandemic and what the trigger that's kicked in? And does it mean anything - does it, like, unlock extra funding or different management approach?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/what-is-a-pandemic-coronavirus-covid-19-who

What is a pandemic?
Pandemics have nothing to do with the severity of a disease but are to do with its geographic spread. According to the World Health Organization, a pandemic is declared when a new disease for which people do not have immunity spreads around the world beyond expectations.

This makes perfect sense since it's a novel virus. What's unusual is the speed in which it's spreading.

[Barrister]

Death panels - what?

I hasten to add that our health care system in BC is not overburdened atm (well any more than usual) and we are essentially at ground zero in Canada for this virus.  I think a lot of praise goes to the health care professionals who are dealing with this.

Some of the stories coming out of Italy.  They're totally beyond capacity on Lombardy.  They have to triage which patients get a bed vs those who don't, triage who gets put on a ventilator compared to who just gets supplemental oxygen.  Some patients, even if young, if they have comorbidities are not being given the treatment they need because they simply don't have enough resources.

BC, and Canada in general, is simple behind the curve.  Alberta had no cases on the weekend.  Then we had 1 on monday, 7 on Tuesday and 14 today.

[merithyn]

I will, once again, point out that I'm not "panicking". I'm still driving to Spokane next weekend, where at least a dozen of the cruise ship passengers are being held (in Seedy's hospital, and I'm staying with him). I'm still flying to Illinois (assuming the events still happen) for a week at the end of this month. I'm still taking public transportation to and from work every day. I'm still going out to eat and going to spend evenings with friends.

But I'm also washing my hands more frequently, slowly adding to my food stores, being careful to stay further away from the elderly in case I have something that will hurt them, etc. I'm paying attention to the news, being cognizant of how to handle a prolonged WFH situation, and making sure that my kids are doing okay with their own stuff. And I've put away a little bit extra in money the last paycheck and the upcoming one so that I can help the boys if they need it since they're all service industry and don't get sick leave.

That's reasonable, in my opinion.

[merithyn]

Heh.

The Trump administration plans to delay the April 15 tax deadline for most individual taxpayers as well as small businesses as part of an effort to mitigate the effects of the spread of the novel coronavirus, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Wednesday.

Mr. Mnuchin said the delay would apply "to virtually all Americans, other than the super rich".

[Barrister]

So I'm coaching Josh's hockey team, and for some reason the job of booking a year-end party has fallen on me.

We were going to rent a sheet of ice, but between Monday (when I saw it was available) and Tuesday when I went to book it, it was gone.  So instead I rented a party room at a big indoor playpark.

Then one of the parents said "err, because of corona virus, we're not taking our kid there".  And, um... good point.  All those play surfaces the kids climb and jump on can hardly be cleaned easily.  Looking for a third possibility (that seems 'cleaner') we could just rent our local community hall.  It doesn't get used a ton, it should be virus-free.

But it's in a week and a half.  Now I have one parent who says we won't go, one who says we should go, and 6 silences.

[Valmy]

Mortality rate could be the same as the mortality rate of the flu https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?mod=article_inline

Right. It could be. That is the thing. We'll see. I think taking reasonable precautions is appropriate until we know more. I don't think that qualified as panicking but just not being reckless.

[Razgovory]

The flu comparison is simply dishonest.  Other posters have explained why.

Here is another expert making the comparison.  His view is influenza kills many thousands more people then corona viruses, including this one.  https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/dan-snows-history-hit/id1042631089?i=1000467901910

We have millions of flu cases every year so you would expect the deaths from Flu to be substantially higher.  If we have coronviras cases at the levels of the flu it would hundreds of thousands of death.  That's why we are going through this rigmarole. Comparing the two is simply dishonest.

I don't understand your logic.  If the mortality rate is lower and unlike the flu the vast majority of cases have very mild symptoms then on the whole this is less serious.  Besides, there are some experts that are skeptical this will have a mortality rate as high as the flu.

The thing that is really driving the panic is bad data, not helped by the US abysmal failure at public health testing.

"If"

[Razgovory]

A Republican congressman mocked the COVID-19 outbreak by wearing a gas mask. Now, he's in virus quarantine

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-republican-congressman-mocked-the-covid-19-outbreak-by-wearing-a-gas-mask-now-hes-in-virus-quarantine/ar-BB10ZBz8?ocid=spartanntp

Lolz

Guy is a dead ringer for Butthead.  Not much brighter either.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Fuck - side effect of panic buying I hadn't thought of.

A food bank I have helped with is apparently feeling the effects of panic buying and are struggling to get the sort of things they need like rice, pasta, long-life milk and needing extra, emergency donations

Stores in the DC area (and maybe across the US?) are completely devoid of hand sanitizer and rubbing alcohol.

I've heard rice is low, but since I bought an extra bag a week ago, we should be fine for now.

[celedhring]

I've stored food for 3 weeks. But it's mostly just in case I get a call telling me "your friend/coworker has been diagnosed with Covid, congratulations! You have to quarantine yourself".