Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Grey Fox]

I just want to mention that this idea that the regular flu is not a big deal is wrong. It is a big deal, usually handled by a healthcare system that is not overwhelmed.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I just want to mention that this idea that the regular flu is not a big deal is wrong. It is a big deal, usually handled by a healthcare system that is not overwhelmed.

Seasonal flu stretches the NHS here every year. It will ease off as spring gets into gear; so one hopes that the system will not have to cope with peak flu and covid-19 simultaneously.

[merithyn]

I just want to mention that this idea that the regular flu is not a big deal is wrong. It is a big deal, usually handled by a healthcare system that is not overwhelmed.

This is where I get so frustrated. People die by the thousands of the flu, and there is that risk right now. Add to it the COVID-19, and our medical health system isn't going to survive this. Korea has 12 beds per 1000 and they were completely overwhelmed, even with the "paltry" numbers CC posted. The US and Canada have 2.5 beds per 1000 people. This has the potential to bring our countries to their knees when we're creating "death panels" to decide who gets a bed over who doesn't. And that's exactly what's happened in China, Korea, and Italy. That's not hyperbole. That is what has happened.

[Tamas]

84 new cases in the UK in 24 hours.

EDIT: if tomorrow will bring a higher number I think we'll be well on our way to a Germany/Spain situation. But hopefully we won't ever reach Italy.

[Sheilbh]

The thing that is really driving the panic is bad data, not helped by the US abysmal failure at public health testing.

And the UK. They're no better, apparently.

In terms of the triage approach - fair.

But there is a separate testing issue - so from the latest figures the UK's done over 27,000 tests - so about 350 per million which is about the same as the Netherlands EDIT: and half Italy (800 per million) - I got this mixed up with Israel , but miles off South Korea (about 3,500 per million) - again really interested in their approach. There seems to be a specific issue with the US testing because the CDC's done, from the latest figures, under 2,000 tests or about 5 per million. Though there'll be local tests it's still just far, far lower than other countries.

Latest UK figures show the biggest increase yet of about 80 cases, up to 456.

Edit: One potential reason for the divergence on US testing figures, from a journo's tweet of the CDC Director's evidence, "there are no plans to set up drive through COVID19 test centres because "We're tryinjg to maintain the relationship between individuals and their healthcare providers.""

Edit: Interesting FT chart which is concerning for all Western countries - like Pedrito's earlier - it looks like we're all on a similar route to Italy:

[The Minsky Moment]

Not if you factor in all the mild cases that were never tested.  As the medical journal I linked suggested you should do.

The link doesn't work

Seems to me the early lesson from S Korea is that an very aggressive approach can be effective if implemented early and with determination and competence.  If that's true it's bad news for the USA.

[The Minsky Moment]

The closest thing we have to a controlled experiment on corona mortality rate is the Diamond Princess, where we know the total population of infected and the total death rate.  The death rate was 1% - i.e. much higher than seasonal flu.  Yes it's a restricted sample but if we are talking about facts not speculation that is as solid data as we have and are likely to have for some time.

[Habbaku]

It's HaBsburg FFS.

[Maximus]

It's like CC's account was hijacked by a Russian troll farm.

[celedhring]

It's HaBsburg FFS.

Tamas is still a dual-monarchist at heart.

[Syt]

In Austria, school for kids 15 and older will be suspended till Easter. Starting next week, the schools for younger kids will switch from teaching to care/supervision, so that kids who can stay at home can do so, while other can be looked after without parents to incur extra time off, or grandparents getting exposed unnecessarily.

Seems like a reasonable way to do things.

[merithyn]

WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

[HVC]

A Republican congressman mocked the COVID-19 outbreak by wearing a gas mask. Now, he's in virus quarantine

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-republican-congressman-mocked-the-covid-19-outbreak-by-wearing-a-gas-mask-now-hes-in-virus-quarantine/ar-BB10ZBz8?ocid=spartanntp

Lolz

[Sheilbh]

WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

What does this mean?

Genuinely what's the definition in terms of when they declare it a pandemic and what the trigger that's kicked in? And does it mean anything - does it, like, unlock extra funding or different management approach?

[Sheilbh]

Fuck - side effect of panic buying I hadn't thought of.

A food bank I have helped with is apparently feeling the effects of panic buying and are struggling to get the sort of things they need like rice, pasta, long-life milk and needing extra, emergency donations