Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Legbiter]

South Korea seems to be getting a handle on it's epidemic. Singapore and Taiwan as well.

[Legbiter]

With the possible exception of South Korea?

I'd love more details because they seem the most interesting/different response of all countries.

The Korean numbers indicate that the virus is a lot more deadly than seasonal flu.

We are also in the very early stages. Our countries won't see the peak until around 6-8 weeks. When that time comes you want to be South Korea, not Iran.

[crazy canuck]

Current Covis mortality rates likely overstated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

The same point can be rephrased as:

Current spread and transmission rates of COVID likely understated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

We know that the reported mortality rates are too high, just like we know that the reported cases are too low.

I have no disagreement with that.  But the under reporting is due to the fact that 80% of those infected  have mild symptoms.  Languish needs to dial back the panic.

[crazy canuck]

With the possible exception of South Korea?

I'd love more details because they seem the most interesting/different response of all countries.

The Korean numbers indicate that the virus is a lot more deadly than seasonal flu.

Not if you factor in all the mild cases that were never tested.  As the medical journal I linked suggested you should do.

[Legbiter]

Interesting epidemiology from Wuhan. Transmission on a bus.

[Grey Fox]

Current Covis mortality rates likely overstated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

The same point can be rephrased as:

Current spread and transmission rates of COVID likely understated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

We know that the reported mortality rates are too high, just like we know that the reported cases are too low.

I have no disagreement with that.  But the under reporting is due to the fact that 80% of those infected  have mild symptoms.  Languish needs to dial back the panic.

That's a reason to panic even more!

[Tamas]

So, Hungary is instituting a state of emergency which gives (even) broad(er) powers to the government.

They are closing pretty much everything BUT schools. Universities because that's where most of confirmed cases are from, and public events of over a size of 500 are banned, most public spaces need to close.

But "schoolchildren are not affected" so schools remain open.

This is not going to end well over there.

[dps]

Current Covis mortality rates likely overstated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

The same point can be rephrased as:

Current spread and transmission rates of COVID likely understated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

We know that the reported mortality rates are too high, just like we know that the reported cases are too low.

I have no disagreement with that.  But the under reporting is due to the fact that 80% of those infected  have mild symptoms.  Languish needs to dial back the panic.

I don't disagree--that was, after all, my supposition all along.  But I'm still not sure that we have enough info to state it as fact.

[crazy canuck]

Current Covis mortality rates likely overstated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

The same point can be rephrased as:

Current spread and transmission rates of COVID likely understated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

We know that the reported mortality rates are too high, just like we know that the reported cases are too low.

I have no disagreement with that.  But the under reporting is due to the fact that 80% of those infected  have mild symptoms.  Languish needs to dial back the panic.

I don't disagree--that was, after all, my supposition all along.  But I'm still not sure that we have enough info to state it as fact.

That is what the WHO studies in China are concluding.  There may be regional differences around the world.

[merithyn]

This is a fantastic write-up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusCA/comments/fdieal/psa_a_note_of_caution_regarding_covid19/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

[Razgovory]

The flu comparison is simply dishonest.  Other posters have explained why.

Here is another expert making the comparison.  His view is influenza kills many thousands more people then corona viruses, including this one.  https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/dan-snows-history-hit/id1042631089?i=1000467901910

We have millions of flu cases every year so you would expect the deaths from Flu to be substantially higher.  If we have coronviras cases at the levels of the flu it would hundreds of thousands of death.  That's why we are going through this rigmarole. Comparing the two is simply dishonest.

[crazy canuck]

This is a fantastic write-up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusCA/comments/fdieal/psa_a_note_of_caution_regarding_covid19/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Article repeats the mantra that the mortality rate is higher than the flu as if that is a fact and not the worst case speculation.  Stopped reading there.

[crazy canuck]

The flu comparison is simply dishonest.  Other posters have explained why.

Here is another expert making the comparison.  His view is influenza kills many thousands more people then corona viruses, including this one.  https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/dan-snows-history-hit/id1042631089?i=1000467901910

We have millions of flu cases every year so you would expect the deaths from Flu to be substantially higher.  If we have coronviras cases at the levels of the flu it would hundreds of thousands of death.  That's why we are going through this rigmarole. Comparing the two is simply dishonest.

I don't understand your logic.  If the mortality rate is lower and unlike the flu the vast majority of cases have very mild symptoms then on the whole this is less serious.  Besides, there are some experts that are skeptical this will have a mortality rate as high as the flu.

The thing that is really driving the panic is bad data, not helped by the US abysmal failure at public health testing.

[merithyn]

This is a fantastic write-up.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusCA/comments/fdieal/psa_a_note_of_caution_regarding_covid19/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

Article repeats the mantra that the mortality rate is higher than the flu as if that is a fact and not the worst case speculation.  Stopped reading there.

If you'd read further, you would have seen that the numbers provided in the article are directly from the WHO. You can disagree based on whatever calculations you've decided makes your case stronger, but the WHO, at this time, has said that the death rate is 3.4%.

I'm really getting annoyed at people saying shit like, "People! You need to stop panicking!!" It's not panicking to say, "Hey, this is a new virus that no one has had before, you won't have any immunities to it, and it can be very dangerous if you're already one of the sicker people in our community. Let's be smart about how we handle it, shall we?" That's basic common sense.

You're right in that there are few "real" numbers to go on right now, so why not err on the side of caution? Why not give people some space to feel concern? This whole "Bah! You big babies! It's just a flu!" is bullshit. It's *not* just a flu, and there isn't a single scientist or epidemiologist that I've read that's said so. It's something new, with a new trajectory and a new physiological response based on what's come out of China, Korea, and Italy.

You want to walk around acting like everything is Jim-Dandy and fine, feel free. But stop acting like those of us wishing to take a few extra precautions are some how less than or not nearly as clever as you are. It's a different interpretation of the current data at hand. Neither is right nor wrong until we have more information. And at the end of the day, I'll be thrilled if you're right and I'm wrong because that will mean that millions of people the world over won't have died. Yay! Good on you. Maybe that would have always been the end result.

But maybe that will be the end result because enough people became concerned enough to make changes in their habits that ended up protecting thousands.

[merithyn]

The thing that is really driving the panic is bad data, not helped by the US abysmal failure at public health testing.

And the UK. They're no better, apparently.