Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

Feels like people are getting different advices.

NW London high school has a confirmed case last visiting on Friday? No worries, no need to deep clean, and certainly all pupils should continue to attend.

The Health Minister visits a private club at the arse end of nowhere and spends an hour there? Deep clean the premises and seal off the room!

Last Friday, Nadine Dorries visited a private members' club in the Bedfordshire town of Flitwick. It is being cleaned and the room where she held a meeting was sealed off.

Steve Scott, the president of the Flitwick Club, said Dorries spent around an hour and a half at the club.

Scott said the club took advice from NHS 111 after hearing about Dorries' condition on Thursday. It is cleaning all surfaces and keeping the room where he said Dorries met around 10 people closed off.

Scott said the club had watched back CCTV footage of Dorries' time at the club to work out where it needed to focus its clean-up.

He added: "It's a worry but she didn't shake anyone's hand as far as we could see. It's all a bit bizarre really."

[Tamas]

They are legit scientists - and they have had successes in changing people's behaviour, but....well, it's never been on stuff that's this serious. But behavioural psychology and behavioural science is, from my understanding, is that it's quite contested

See to me the door handle things makes sense. People are not great at washing their hands or sneezing/coughing into tissues. They open doors or push the buttons for lifts. I come on and do the same and I have become aware how often I touch my face following the advice on this - and I don't wash my hands after using a lift/touching a door. So I can see a clear path for me to get infected. Whereas if they're just in my area breathing that seems a lot lower risk - there's a lot of environment that those germs can be in whereas hand to surface to hand is very direct.

It seems to me to be the same reason why hospitals don't have door handles or doors you need to touch?

Now is it more effective than closing off big public events.

Its neat to have them offer input, but decide how to deal with an epidemic?

They sound like people who have mostly worked on political campaigns. If you are wrong there your guy don't get elected. If you are wrong here hundreds will die needlessly.

[Sheilbh]

Tamas has been reported for being un-British; he should know by now that dogged stupidity and a cup of really strong tea is all that is needed to get us through this.

I am surprised that it wasn't part of his citizenship application. Can you oscillate between the two standard moods of the British public: absolute cold blooded indifference and raving, incoherent emotion/panic?

Tamas is taking a far more moderate approach

[Tamas]

I guess the point is, Johnson and co. are taking a huge gamble. If it works its great his buddies won't see their share prices and premiums dwindle, if it doesn't work then they are probably still ok, but lots of us will die.

Regardless of the chances of success its a reckless gamble.

[Sheilbh]

Its neat to have them offer input, but decide how to deal with an epidemic?

They sound like people who have mostly worked on political campaigns. If you are wrong there your guy don't get elected. If you are wrong here hundreds will die needlessly.

Agreed - though they're not a political/PR unit, that's not quite fair. But it is a big shift. I mean they have done stuff around organ donation and cancer diagnosis, but I'd always thought their sort of "area" was things like reducing the number of no-shows at NHS appointments, getting people to file their tax on time, getting people to choose the greener option etc. It's a jump

They're about policy and are technically a private (I think state owned) company that advises the UK and other governments:
https://www.bi.team/about-us/

I think they're mainly economists, data scientists and psychologists. But as I say behavioural science is very new

[crazy canuck]

The flu comparison is simply dishonest.  Other posters have explained why.

Here is another expert making the comparison.  His view is influenza kills many thousands more people then corona viruses, including this one.  https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/dan-snows-history-hit/id1042631089?i=1000467901910

[Tamas]

Its neat to have them offer input, but decide how to deal with an epidemic?

They sound like people who have mostly worked on political campaigns. If you are wrong there your guy don't get elected. If you are wrong here hundreds will die needlessly.

Agreed - though they're not a political/PR unit, that's not quite fair. But it is a big shift. I mean they have done stuff around organ donation and cancer diagnosis, but I'd always thought their sort of "area" was things like reducing the number of no-shows at NHS appointments, getting people to file their tax on time, getting people to choose the greener option etc. It's a jump

They're about policy and are technically a private (I think state owned) company that advises the UK and other governments:
https://www.bi.team/about-us/

I think they're mainly economists, data scientists and psychologists. But as I say behavioural science is very new

Yes and this just reeks of the kind of reckless gambling Johnson would pull.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I guess the point is, Johnson and co. are taking a huge gamble. If it works its great his buddies won't see their share prices and premiums dwindle, if it doesn't work then they are probably still ok, but lots of us will die.

Regardless of the chances of success its a reckless gamble.

Don't forget that a severe recession has non-monetary costs such as ruined lives and even premature deaths; though it is hard to quantify such effects.

[Sheilbh]

I guess the point is, Johnson and co. are taking a huge gamble. If it works its great his buddies won't see their share prices and premiums dwindle, if it doesn't work then they are probably still ok, but lots of us will die.

I agree it's a huge, risky gamble. But surely if it works according to that article, then mortality rate among the high risk population will be a third lower than otherwise, presumably if it it doesn't it'll be higher. As RH says I hope they're nimble enough that if there start to be signs this approach isn't working they can switch up. But maybe not.

Even in terms of economic cost - share prices and premiums will be fine, the real cost is going to be for the thousands of small and medium businesses - I think we need plans to bail them out already because these are viable businesses facing a crisis, which isn't their fault and is out of their control but could really fuck them up.

Edit: One other thought on the door handle thing - is it freaks me out about public transport as well. I feel the risk isn't the people on the train, it's all of the services like the poles you hold onto

[crazy canuck]

South Korea has now tested 200,000 people.  Of those 7,775 have tested positive.  61 people have died.

[crazy canuck]

Mortality rate could be the same as the mortality rate of the flu https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?mod=article_inline

[crazy canuck]

Current Covis mortality rates likely overstated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

[The Minsky Moment]

Current Covis mortality rates likely overstated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-vs-flu-which-virus-is-deadlier-11583856879

The same point can be rephrased as:

Current spread and transmission rates of COVID likely understated because mild cases are not being reported or tested.

We know that the reported mortality rates are too high, just like we know that the reported cases are too low.

[Sheilbh]

With the possible exception of South Korea?

I'd love more details because they seem the most interesting/different response of all countries.

[The Minsky Moment]

With the possible exception of South Korea?

I'd love more details because they seem the most interesting/different response of all countries.

The Korean numbers indicate that the virus is a lot more deadly than seasonal flu.