Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Yeah it feels like there's going to be a bit of an explosion in case numbers here too as more people are tested and also given that it's not just entry from East Asia, but also the US West Coast and Italy that may help it spread more widely.

More COBRA meetings toda and then, probably the Health Secretary going to the Commons. Labour have said they'll support the government shutting down some UK cities if that's the clinical/medical advice. Which would be a big step and has moved from just being sort-of floated at the weekend to seeming like something that may happen.

[Tamas]

I just wish they'd release an advise to reduce social contact already. At my job there's like 60 of us mostly from in and around London sitting in an air-conditioned space, and we could totally keep things going for a couple of weeks working from home.

Feels like being exposed needlessly.

Or I am just panicking.

[celedhring]

Yeah it feels like there's going to be a bit of an explosion in case numbers here too as more people are tested and also given that it's not just entry from East Asia, but also the US West Coast and Italy that may help it spread more widely.

More COBRA meetings toda and then, probably the Health Secretary going to the Commons. Labour have said they'll support the government shutting down some UK cities if that's the clinical/medical advice. Which would be a big step and has moved from just being sort-of floated at the weekend to seeming like something that may happen.

That said I'm going to be slightly optimistic and start believeing that the virus indeed as a way smaller kill rate than believed. The S. Korea numbers, where they are testing everybody that moves and thus catching many more mild cases, are very low (under 1%). Death rate in Italy has also been trending downward as they detect more infections. Those are the two countries that have a large number of cases which are not likely to fudge the numbers like China/Iran.

[Tamas]

Well yeah I think my odds of dying in this thing are pretty low, but first of all still above zero, and I am not looking forward to spending a couple of weeks knocked out by the flu.

[Sheilbh]

I just wish they'd release an advise to reduce social contact already. At my job there's like 60 of us mostly from in and around London sitting in an air-conditioned space, and we could totally keep things going for a couple of weeks working from home.

Feels like being exposed needlessly.

Or I am just panicking.

My work's done a test of mass WFH and people are being told to self-isolate if they have symptoms or go to any of a list of countries. Plus almost all work travel to events or clients etc have been cancelled and require board approval, except for the really essential stuff - like a court date.

But yeah at this stage it still seems to be left to organisations to work out and some are higher risk than others. I suppose the filpside is I'm not aware of any cluster yet.

That said I'm going to be slightly optimistic and start believeing that the virus indeed as a way smaller kill rate than believed. The S. Korea numbers, where they are testing everybody that moves and thus catching much more mild cases, are very low. Death rate in Italy has also been trending downward as they are detecting more infections. Those are the two countries with a large number of cases that are not likely to fudge the numbers like China/Iran.

Yeah, the Italian cases I understand where almost all people with pre-existing conditions and old-age so it's more like coronavirus was an extra factor rather than the sole factor.

They had the former medical director from Public Health England on the shows earlier today and he was saying the same thing basically:

Cosford told today that there will come a point "where we reduce social contact if we see more widespread transmission".
    I think the increase in number that we are seeing, coupled with the increases in countries nearby in Europe and of course in South East Asia, do make it much more likely we will get more widespread transmission in the UK.

    It's still the case that the vast majority of the cases we've got in the UK, we can trace a link to countries where there's infection and people returning from those countries, but we've not been able to identify that in every single case now, so that's something we are looking at extremely carefully to understand where the source of those infections may be.

    I think we now have to expect there to be more widespread infection in the UK that we will need to deal with.

    We've got to be prepared for that, we're not there yet but we've got to be prepared for it, and it will give us some challenges.

Cosford said, however, that it was important that people remembered the infection was mild in most cases.
The vast majority of people will make a recovery from it and it is a relatively mild illness. Children and otherwise healthy adults seem to be at much lower risk of getting into serious complications you get with this sort of disease.

It's older people and people with severe underlying conditions that we will be particularly concerned about.[/]

[celedhring]

So apparently another group of Nurgle Plaguebearers religious group is the vector of the largest outbreak within Spain. We have spiked to 115 cases this morning.

[dps]

Yeah it feels like there's going to be a bit of an explosion in case numbers here too as more people are tested and also given that it's not just entry from East Asia, but also the US West Coast and Italy that may help it spread more widely.

More COBRA meetings toda and then, probably the Health Secretary going to the Commons. Labour have said they'll support the government shutting down some UK cities if that's the clinical/medical advice. Which would be a big step and has moved from just being sort-of floated at the weekend to seeming like something that may happen.

That said I'm going to be slightly optimistic and start believeing that the virus indeed as a way smaller kill rate than believed. The S. Korea numbers, where they are testing everybody that moves and thus catching many more mild cases, are very low (under 1%). Death rate in Italy has also been trending downward as they detect more infections. Those are the two countries that have a large number of cases which are not likely to fudge the numbers like China/Iran.

That makes sense.  With the numbers from China, even to the extent that they're not fudged, are going to be largely the death rate among those sick enough to require hospitalization.  People with milder cases who didn't need to be hospitalized (or even to see a doctor at all) were unlikely under the conditions to be counted as having the virus, and simply by virtue of being milder cases weren't going to die.

[Tamas]

The most important thing for people to understand is that (measures) will be guided by scientific advice.

All four nations of the UK and the chief medical officers are involved in this and they will be helping us to take key decisions on when and how to take protective steps.

We cannot forget that the single most useful thing that we can all do to support the NHS is to wash our hands, two times to Happy Birthday with hot water.

It's very important that people should continue (doing) that and they should go about business as usual.

For at least five years I'll have to put up with this condescending fake-old style.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is good advice though Tamas; a good half of the population are simpletons and his advice is for them. We elitist clever folk can go and visit the appropriate websites to keep ourselves informed.

[Tamas]

It is good advice though Tamas; a good half of the population are simpletons and his advice is for them. We elitist clever folk can go and visit the appropriate websites to keep ourselves informed.

Actually I was only annoyed by the two happy birthdays thing. He could have just said 20 seconds

[Tamas]

Is it known yet whereabouts the 4 new UK cases are?

With one of the weekend new ones in Reading, I am nearly encircled

[garbon]

It is good advice though Tamas; a good half of the population are simpletons and his advice is for them. We elitist clever folk can go and visit the appropriate websites to keep ourselves informed.

Actually I was only annoyed by the two happy birthdays thing. He could have just said 20 seconds

I read that as guidance in a news article last week. I think they picked that as it gives people a mantra/frame of reference that people likely don't realistically have about 20 seconds.

[Sheilbh]

Am I the only person here who has to count "one elephant, two elephant" to make sure I don't rush through counting seconds?

I do this out loud and every day when I make coffee.

[Tamas]

 

I don't sweat it, I just rush through seconds

[Sheilbh]

Is it known yet whereabouts the 4 new UK cases are?

With one of the weekend new ones in Reading, I am nearly encircled

A case in Reading?

It's a shame, but I think we'll just have to lose Reading and possibly Swindon too - better safe than sorry.