Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Legbiter]

I am wondering if we are going to be let off comparatively lightly here in the north of England. The virus is a couple of weeks behind the situation in London but, as usual, our policies on social distancing etc etc have been determined by the situation in the capital.

London is surprising, it should be getting absolutely slammed since about a week ago. If the line holds over the weekend that will be very encouraging. Hope these are not famous last words.

[Tamas]

I am wondering if we are going to be let off comparatively lightly here in the north of England. The virus is a couple of weeks behind the situation in London but, as usual, our policies on social distancing etc etc have been determined by the situation in the capital.

London is surprising, it should be getting absolutely slammed since about a week ago. If the line holds over the weekend that will be very encouraging. Hope these are not famous last words.

On the telly they are just talking about how they expect a "tsunami" of new cases in London in the coming days.

[Legbiter]

There'll be a significant increase yeah. The week that passed without total ICU blowup was extremely good news, invaluable preparations were put in place. The question will be answered over the weekend. If London hasn't buckled come Monday I'll be extremely encouraged. Probably the same applies to New York.

[Legbiter]

I'm going nuts after barely two weeks.

I'll head screaming for the highlands if you report that you've started watching Matlock btw. 

[Zanza]

I learned why German experts believe the test capacity here is higher than elsewhere: in other countries it is more often done more automated with kits provided by commercial suppliers, whereas in Germany each university clinic still has labs and that's more "artisanal", which means they had experts that could already create test capabilities in late January.

Germany expects peak daily new infections around April 20th now.
Some measures are discussed here to lift the shutdown:
- Raise PCR testing capacity to 200k/day until end of April. This is seen sceptical by experts tough as even our large number of laboratories will run out of capacity and test materials
- Introduce mobile phone tracking and big data analysis to facilitate contact tracing and establish better organisations for that
- A big antibody test starting in April with a first batch of 100,000 representative persons to get an idea about the general infection rate in the population. However the currently available antibody tests show too many positives for other, harmless coronavirus variants
- Add another 60k hospital beds to the existing 300k

They want to build capability to then manage small local outbreaks while not shutting down everything. A bit of a whack-a-mole strategy I guess.

[celedhring]

The reason you die from Covid-19 is a cytokine storm in your lungs, which is a kind of autoimmune reaction. Maybe that's why people think it may help?

Yeah, I've seen a few videos from Spanish doctors saying that. Checking for autoimmune responses is part of our diagnosing protocol and treatment.

But wouldn't that dispropotionately affect the young and not the old?

[Sheilbh]

Ah, so then policing by consent isn't something that should be applied fairly across communities. If one is engaged in lovely, middle class activities, keep having that fun.

It should be people who are trying to break the rules that the focus is on - so lads on Clapham Common with a frisbee or just sat around in the park, not household groups doing a walk at a local beauty spot. We're allowed one type of exercise a day, I don't see any difference between allowing people to drive to the nearest big supermarket to do their shopping and allowing them to drive to a less crowded place than the local park for their exercise.

I'm also not sure that I'd necessarily describe bird-watching as a middle class pursuit

I am wondering if we are going to be let off comparatively lightly here in the north of England. The virus is a couple of weeks behind the situation in London but, as usual, our policies on social distancing etc etc have been determined by the situation in the capital.

I think one advantage of the policy being national is that it leads to a simple message. In Italy I would be loth to reduce restrictions in Lombardy whilst tightening them in Calabria.......if only because it complicates the message; otoh the people in Lombardy must be suffering pretty badly from cabin fever by now.

Hopefully the rest of the country can avoid it. Although from the case numbers it looks like there's some sort of mini-hotspot in Sheffield for some reason.

I also think it'll probably help the effectiveness of the lockdown in the rest of the country, that London's a little bit ahead. I thought the images from Italy were sobering enough so I've not really had to change my behaviour from last week when we were just given advice. But I imagine it will have a bigger impact if there's images from a familiar looking NHS hospital somewhere in London of why this is so important.

Setting aside the class-based differentiating there that garbon allured to, there are also very practical considerations. You can't have people applying excuses like bloody birdwatching, or the absolutel NEEED to jog in Instagram-positive scenery, because then everyone will be using those excuses to be out and about to their heart's content.

And those activities ARE reckless and stupid because they are absolutely unnecessary, and help sustain the peak period of the pandemic.

As I say I don't see a difference between allowing people to drive to the big supermarket for their shopping and allowing people to drive to a local bit of countryside for their daily exercise - especially because I think that's probably partly motivated by a desire to do the right thing. Part of the reason you might do it is to avoid crowding the parks with any more joggers/runners/cyclists and go somewhere you're better able to socially distance. Also if the people with cars go to ocal countryside it will mean there's less pressure on town/city parks for the people who don't have cars or, say, have mobility issues making it easier for them to get their exercise.

But as people keep saying this is a marathon not a sprint, we are going to be locked down like this for at least 3 months probably and that daily exercise is going to be an essential little pressure release for everyone. As long as it's not being abused - groups of friends meeting up to "run", I have a friend in Rome who was saying that even last week she was seeing groups of like 5 going for a run which obviously doesn't help - then I think the police should be as tolerant as possible of daily exercise. Obviously within that we mustn't use public transport, and mustn't do exercise that could be dangerous (I don't want to see any middle aged men in lycra deciding now is the time to try mountain biking).

Again on a personal level I'm still on crutches I can get to the park but I can't quickly walk around it, so I'll need to sit down on the grass or on the bench at a mid point and maybe take some painkillers. That isn't me trying to break the rules, it's me trying to operate within them.

[Admiral Yi]

It should be people who are trying to break the rules that the focus is on - so lads on Clapham Common with a frisbee or just sat around in the park, not household groups doing a walk at a local beauty spot. We're allowed one type of exercise a day, I don't see any difference between allowing people to drive to the nearest big supermarket to do their shopping and allowing them to drive to a less crowded place than the local park for their exercise.

I'm also not sure that I'd necessarily describe bird-watching as a middle class pursuit

So you want intent, not just impact, to be a factor in law enforcement's choice to enforce.  Good intentions should play a role.

[garbon]

Ah, so then policing by consent isn't something that should be applied fairly across communities. If one is engaged in lovely, middle class activities, keep having that fun.

It should be people who are trying to break the rules that the focus is on - so lads on Clapham Common with a frisbee or just sat around in the park, not household groups doing a walk at a local beauty spot. We're allowed one type of exercise a day, I don't see any difference between allowing people to drive to the nearest big supermarket to do their shopping and allowing them to drive to a less crowded place than the local park for their exercise.

I'm also not sure that I'd necessarily describe bird-watching as a middle class pursuit

You think its going to be the working class, BAMEs who are going into the wilderness to go bird-watching?

[Tamas]

As I say I don't see a difference between allowing people to drive to the big supermarket for their shopping and allowing people to drive to a local bit of countryside for their daily exercise

Drive to supermarket:  you may get in contact with people and carry the virus to somewhere it wasn't present before, but if you don't do this, you starve

Drive to beauty spot: you may get in contact with people and carry the virus to somewhere it wasn't present before, but if you don't do this, you'll be perfectly fine.

[celedhring]

+769 dead (+19%), +486 infected requiring ICU care (+13%). More dead in absolute terms than yesterday, but %wise it's under 20% and thus follows projections released last week. Situation seems to be stabilizing in its direness.

[Sheilbh]

+769 dead (+19%), +486 infected requiring ICU care (+13%). More dead in absolute terms than yesterday, but %wise it's under 20% and thus follows projections released last week. Situation seems to be stabilizing in its direness.

I know it's just maths but I find the increasing absolute numbers but the rate isn't increasing sort of upsetting when I see it. The numbers haven't reached that level yet but I think we had over 100 yesterday, probably have over 100 again today. Can't imagine what it's like for the teams in hospitals facing this.

Unrelated but I do some stuff at a law clinic and obviously we've shut down the actual drop-in centre but are starting to get email queries coming through. I have said it before and I'll say it again - landlords are evil

[Josquius]

As I say I don't see a difference between allowing people to drive to the big supermarket for their shopping and allowing people to drive to a local bit of countryside for their daily exercise

Drive to supermarket:  you may get in contact with people and carry the virus to somewhere it wasn't present before, but if you don't do this, you starve

Drive to beauty spot: you may get in contact with people and carry the virus to somewhere it wasn't present before, but if you don't do this, you'll be perfectly fine.

Or you crack and brutally murder your family.

The trouble with people going to the countryside is less that they're doing that in itself and more that a larger number of people than normal are trying to do so as there's nothing else to do. This is a problem

[celedhring]

+769 dead (+19%), +486 infected requiring ICU care (+13%). More dead in absolute terms than yesterday, but %wise it's under 20% and thus follows projections released last week. Situation seems to be stabilizing in its direness.

I know it's just maths but I find the increasing absolute numbers but the rate isn't increasing sort of upsetting when I see it. The numbers haven't reached that level yet but I think we had over 100 yesterday, probably have over 100 again today. Can't imagine what it's like for the teams in hospitals facing this.

Unrelated but I do some stuff at a law clinic and obviously we've shut down the actual drop-in centre but are starting to get email queries coming through. I have said it before and I'll say it again - landlords are evil

A close friend of mine works in the "emotional care" team for the professionals at Catalonia's largest hospital. So yeah, I get stories first-hand. She's herself quite shaken these days.



But we're unsticking ourselves from the exponential curve. That's good news despite the grimness of the situation.

[Zanza]

Boris Johnson has tested positive and has mild symptoms.