Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

Obvious challenge on right to travel grounds

[Legbiter]

Maybe we won't blow up completely like Italy. 

The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK's parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation's response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people's movements make him "reasonably confident" the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won't be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units.

The Imperial model has played a key role in informing the UK's coronavirus strategy, but this approach has been criticised by some. "To be fair, the Imperial people are the some of the best infectious disease modellers on the planet," Paul Hunter at the University of East Anglia, UK, told New Scientist last week. "But it is risky to put all your eggs in a single basket."

Ferguson said the current strategy was intended to keep transmission of the virus at low levels until a vaccine was available. Experts say that could take 12 to 18 months and Ferguson acknowledged it was impractical to keep the UK in lockdown for so long, especially because of the impact on the economy. "We'll be paying for this year for decades to come," he said.

The UK government is aiming to relax restrictions on people's movements only when the country has the ability to test more people for the virus, said Ferguson. Some have criticised the UK for not following the advice of the World Health Organization to "test, test, test". But Ferguson said community testing and contact tracing wasn't included as a possible strategy in the original modelling because not enough tests were available.

He said the UK should have the testing capacity "within a few weeks" to copy what South Korea has done and aggressively test and trace the general population.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

20.000 deaths is better than 500.000 obviously. We'd even have some economic activity, instead of near cessation.

[jimmy olsen]

Trump's national county risk stratification plan seems unworkable so as long as there's a constitutional right to freedom of movement. Any law nerds know if Oklahoma could legally prevent movement of an asympomatic Texan from Dallas County (presumably a hotzone/Trump high risk county) across the Red River? Florida and other states are enforcing 14 day quarantines but aren't actually banning the entry of NY citizens into their state.

There were towns that enforced vigorous quarantines in during the Spanish Flu. I read about one in Colorado I think it was, the chief doctor in town got the sheriff on board and they were hard core about locking anyone up from out of town for a week or two.

[Legbiter]

What's going on it South Korea Tim?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't understand why Neil Ferguson is so optimistic; but then he is the scientist with access to a fancy model and I'm just a bloke in Lancashire....so hopefully he is right. If he is then 20k deaths is really not much of a problem at all; it is less than the typical excess UK winter deaths..... though they happen without the accompanying economic disruption caused by the necessary prophylactic measures.

I'll be taking a really good look at the total mortality statistics in a couple of years time (assuming I survive). Pollution is greatly reduced in China for instance, they have only had about 3k deaths from the virus; is it possible that deaths from pollution are so lower that total mortality for the period has fallen? Contrariwise, will the economic stress and accompanying anxiety actually kill more than the virus itself?

[Legbiter]

I don't understand why Neil Ferguson is so optimistic; but then he is the scientist with access to a fancy model and I'm just a bloke in Lancashire....so hopefully he is right. If he is then 20k deaths is really not much of a problem at all; it is less than the typical excess UK winter deaths..... though they happen without the accompanying economic disruption caused by the necessary prophylactic measures.

By this account the plan is to take the fight directly to the virus. Widespread testing and quarantining. Then you can see see the red zones that have to be locked down, less affected areas can be relaxed and then expanded.

*Edit* Neil Ferguson was the doomer with the Imperial College spreadsheet which spat out WW I fatality figures. It's nice he's feeling better.

[Richard Hakluyt]

So the initial surge in cases is because we were unprepared; the lockdown enables us to get a grip whilst also ramping up production of testing kits and setting up quarantine measures; which enables us to move on and get the economy up and running once again.

Good, that makes sense, I've been getting worried in the past few days about the economy........not the wealth of oligarchs which is what Trump means by the economy......but the supply chains of essential items which make modern life possible.

[Legbiter]

Yes, the UK will have enough infrastructure and testing kits in a couple of weeks to begin doing what South Korea is doing now.

[garbon]

Shelf: I think one fundamental difference between you and I is how we perceive the 2 meter rule.  You see it as the limit of the state's/police authority.  Yeah, we're in a park, but the family groups are all (mostly?) 2 meters apart from each other, so the bloody coppers can bugger off.

Whereas I see it as the maximum permissable.  I say: stay in your house, don't come in contact with anyone, and when you absolutely have to come in contact, stay 2 meters apart.

You're probably right, my view is we're allowed out for essential journeys and exercise. If you're outside on an essential journey or for exercise and you're within 2m, or if you're with people from your household - then the state/police can fuck off.

But there is a bit of this that could be from my situation. Because of an injury I've been in the house for about two months. The weather is gorgeous right now and I have been going for a walk, but I also just want to sit in a park/outside on my own away from people and not be harassed by the police for it.

But I'd also say I think what we're doing has to be sustainable for 3 months - for me that means we have to maximise the freedom people have within social distancing, rather than imposing a very strict approach that isn't sustainable.

I agree perception of fairness is important.  Zero tolerance for everyone is fair.  Even cuddly bird tit enthusiasts.

I can't think of a single example of zero-tolerance policing that's increased perceptions of fairness - I mean it could maybe work, but I think in practice there needs to be a bit of discretion. Especially, as I say, because I dont think this is a normal crime. If the focus of policing in three weeks time is still people who are leaving a crowded area to go to and bird-watch/jog then I think it'll undermine the change we're trying to make.

Ah, so then policing by consent isn't something that should be applied fairly across communities. If one is engaged in lovely, middle class activities, keep having that fun.

[Josquius]

In Italy it does look worrying for the south. Particularly troubling there is as well as the worse hospitals they also have a far more touchy culture, are big on knowing everyone in the village and checking in on the elderly etc...

Found this site the other day to track the data. Shame it can't break down on a provincial level. I've been watching it to see when Italy peaks, if was due in a few days.
I wonder whether they'll be able to open the north and keep the south quarantined a bit longer. I guess it'll be fair since lombardy started earlier.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

[Richard Hakluyt]

I am wondering if we are going to be let off comparatively lightly here in the north of England. The virus is a couple of weeks behind the situation in London but, as usual, our policies on social distancing etc etc have been determined by the situation in the capital.

I think one advantage of the policy being national is that it leads to a simple message. In Italy I would be loth to reduce restrictions in Lombardy whilst tightening them in Calabria.......if only because it complicates the message; otoh the people in Lombardy must be suffering pretty badly from cabin fever by now.

[celedhring]

I am wondering if we are going to be let off comparatively lightly here in the north of England. The virus is a couple of weeks behind the situation in London but, as usual, our policies on social distancing etc etc have been determined by the situation in the capital.

I think one advantage of the policy being national is that it leads to a simple message. In Italy I would be loth to reduce restrictions in Lombardy whilst tightening them in Calabria.......if only because it complicates the message; otoh the people in Lombardy must be suffering pretty badly from cabin fever by now.

I'm going nuts after barely two weeks.

[Josquius]

I am wondering if we are going to be let off comparatively lightly here in the north of England. The virus is a couple of weeks behind the situation in London but, as usual, our policies on social distancing etc etc have been determined by the situation in the capital.

I think one advantage of the policy being national is that it leads to a simple message. In Italy I would be loth to reduce restrictions in Lombardy whilst tightening them in Calabria.......if only because it complicates the message; otoh the people in Lombardy must be suffering pretty badly from cabin fever by now.

Given how very seriously people took it until Monday (ie not at all) and even today continue to flout the lockdown... I think some parts of the north might get hit pretty hard in the weeks to come.
The only possible saving grace could well be our social stratification.
How many of these feral kids continuing to roam the streets and their foul mouthed alcoholic 50-something grandparents have any contact whatsoever with the sort of people who take holidays in the alps?

[Tamas]

I can't think of a single example of zero-tolerance policing that's increased perceptions of fairness - I mean it could maybe work, but I think in practice there needs to be a bit of discretion. Especially, as I say, because I dont think this is a normal crime. If the focus of policing in three weeks time is still people who are leaving a crowded area to go to and bird-watch/jog then I think it'll undermine the change we're trying to make.

If there are rules that restrict people's freedom to be recklessly endangering the safety and health of others, they should be enforced equally, and not selectively based on the perceived innocence of the activity.

Setting aside the class-based differentiating there that garbon allured to, there are also very practical considerations. You can't have people applying excuses like bloody birdwatching, or the absolutel NEEED to jog in Instagram-positive scenery, because then everyone will be using those excuses to be out and about to their heart's content.

And those activities ARE reckless and stupid because they are absolutely unnecessary, and help sustain the peak period of the pandemic.

[Tamas]

I am wondering if we are going to be let off comparatively lightly here in the north of England. The virus is a couple of weeks behind the situation in London but, as usual, our policies on social distancing etc etc have been determined by the situation in the capital.

I think one advantage of the policy being national is that it leads to a simple message. In Italy I would be loth to reduce restrictions in Lombardy whilst tightening them in Calabria.......if only because it complicates the message; otoh the people in Lombardy must be suffering pretty badly from cabin fever by now.

Given how very seriously people took it until Monday (ie not at all) and even today continue to flout the lockdown... I think some parts of the north might get hit pretty hard in the weeks to come.
The only possible saving grace could well be our social stratification.
How many of these feral kids continuing to roam the streets and their foul mouthed alcoholic 50-something grandparents have any contact whatsoever with the sort of people who take holidays in the alps?

Sheilbh is already hard at work to wrap a moral and ethical gift-wrap around what will be a middle class exodus to the more remote areas.